€20 NLHE 6-max: 3bet pot deep, double barrel scare card?

€20 NL HE 6-max: 3bet pot deep, double barrel scare card?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 20/15/5

Entraction - €0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

SB: €20.52
Hero (BB): €27.17
UTG: €2.63
CO: €31.93
BTN: €5.20

SB posts SB €0.05, Hero posts BB €0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: €0.15) Hero has J:club: T:club:

UTG calls €0.10, fold, fold, SB raises to €0.60, Hero raises to €2.30, fold, SB calls €1.70

Flop: (€4.70, 2 players) 8:club: 3:club: 6:spade:
SB checks, Hero bets €3.60, SB calls €3.60

Turn: (€11.90, 2 players) A:spade:
SB checks, Hero ???


488 hands on Villain, he has a 77% fold to 3bet so having a 15% raising range that should make his call to 3-bet 3.45% of total hands, which according to pokerstove is 99+,AQs+

Had some history with him in the session before, took 3 BI's from him gave one back on a stupid bluff.

He did call stacks with TPTK in a pot I 3-bet him before, but calling the 3-bet and the flop makes me thing of his range to be strictly overpairs up to QQ, maybe 88 for a set. Should I then double barrel this scary A?

This is more of a line check tbh as you could probably tell!

2nd barrel please, with a fist-pump.

Also, 2 nit picky things: His PFR is going to be higher than 15% on the button, and you can c-bet that flop slightly smaller ($3.00 is fine).

c9h13no3 said:

2nd barrel please, with a fist-pump.

Also, 2 nit picky things: His PFR is going to be higher than 15% on the button, and you can c-bet that flop slightly smaller ($3.00 is fine).

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I did, no fist pump tho. Guess I just needed confirmation, thx

Yeah definite double barrel. That Ace is great for you and you have plenty of equity.

What about sizing?

It's kind of an awkward spot actually for bet sizing because we can't really get much FE with a small bet and we're committed to call a shove with like 20% equity with a larger bet. Actually even if we only bet 1/2 pot we'll have 50% of our stack invested.

I guess I would likely bet larger (~$10) and hope he folds. Honestly had I thought enough about the remaining stacks in the 1st place I may elect to check behind and take the free card?

The turn sizing presents a problem because our flop sizing wasn't good for double barreling. If we want to leave ourself the option of double barreling, the flop bet needs to be either smaller or bigger.

F Paulsson said:

The turn sizing presents a problem because our flop sizing wasn't good for double barreling. If we want to leave ourself the option of double barreling, the flop bet needs to be either smaller or bigger.

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So as played you check back the turn or just bet big and hope for a club when he doesn't fold?

WVHillbilly said:

So as played you check back the turn or just bet big and hope for a club when he doesn't fold?

Click to expand...

If I end up in this situation (and I do - often - because I don't always remember to think about stack sizes on the flop), I'll use current reads or meta game as a tie-breaker between betting small or shoving. If he's an unknown, I'm probably checking back.

You guys are taking this to another level me thinks. If I check behind I can never get the pot on the river without a club, so 1 out of 5 times is not enough I guess.

I bet 3/4 pot, too much ? Wanted to make a commitment bet, make sure he knows all the money goes in if he calls and increase FE. If I half pot it there, he can still get away on the river imo so he can call QQ or sorts because it doesn't seem like much money. And I can't really barrel again on river if a club doesn't hit

Stack sizes always ruin my HA posts

ComplexPlaya said:

You guys are taking this to another level me thinks. If I check behind I can never get the pot on the river without a club, so 1 out of 5 times is not enough I guess.

I bet 3/4 pot, too much ? Wanted to make a commitment bet, make sure he knows all the money goes in if he calls and increase FE. If I half pot it there, he can still get away on the river imo so he can call QQ or sorts because it doesn't seem like much money. And I can't really barrel again on river if a club doesn't hit

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Well see that's just it, he's never calling, only folding or shoving, and by 3/4 potting it, you basically have to call when he shoves with like ~18% equity.

Again my initial thought was easy double barrel spot (and had I been playing the hand I almost certainly would have) but because of FP forcing me to consider bet, and therefor stack, sizes, I don't think it's so clearly a bet. It's the type of spot where when you bet and he folds you never even see the mistake that you made because the Ace is such a great scare card and well it worked right. But those times when he shoves and you're left calling off the remaining $6 or so, you're just throwing up a little bit.

Well yeah, but how often are those times, how much FE do I need for a 9-10 bet to work, I guess around 66% to be profitable, with picking the pot right there plus making my flush on river (estimating doing some math in my head)

If I don't have said equity then it's my fault for giving too much credit to villain, but clearly there are way more than two thirds of combos of 99-QQ then 88, I think he would 4-bet AK pre normally.

Risking less is a great idea, I just want to know in your, FP's, c9's opinion, does betting 5 or 6 on the turn dramatically lower FE? I'm inclined to think so

P.S. : c9, he was SB there not OTB, so a 9% PFR range from the blinds, but probably more because of the times he steals from the SB, don't know the exact stat for that.

I think I reached a slightly different conclusion after some thought now, will give it after a few more opinions on the sizing question

Here's the thing though:

If you bet an amount (X) that will commit you to calling a shove, you have two outcomes:

1. You bet X and he folds and you pick up the pot.
2. You bet X, he shoves and you lose your stack.

Is this better or worse than shoving? It's no different at all in terms of how much you lose when you lose or win when you win. It's the same EV. The difference, if there is one, is that your fold equity will change. What will shoving do for your fold equity compared to betting smaller?

(Actually, this ignores the possibility that he calls your turn bet rather than shove over it, which will happen some non-zero percentage of the time. You will actually lose less when that happens unless you feel it's necessary to shove the river regardless of what comes off.)

F Paulsson said:

Here's the thing though:

If you bet an amount (X) that will commit you to calling a shove, you have two outcomes:

1. You bet X and he folds and you pick up the pot.
2. You bet X, he shoves and you lose your stack.

Is this better or worse than shoving? It's no different at all in terms of how much you lose when you lose or win when you win. It's the same EV. The difference, if there is one, is that your fold equity will change. What will shoving do for your fold equity compared to betting smaller?

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I see your point, nice explanation. I guess then at these 10-20nl levels I should shove instead of double barreling small in such situations, right? Of course I pretty much would have to do the same with a made hand, so that complicates things even further...

ComplexPlaya said:

Of course I pretty much would have to do the same with a made hand, so that complicates things even further...

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Wtf, why?

Hint: If you say anything involving the words "balance", then I will jump through the internet and kick your ass.

baaaaaaaaaaaaaalance
wait, you mean to say that at 20 NL people shouldn't be thinking about this shiz?

c9h13no3 said:

Wtf, why?

Hint: If you say anything involving the words "balance", then I will jump through the internet and kick your ass.

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I don't want my ass kicked, but the easiest thing to notice by regs is doing a different bet-size according to your hand strength, which is a leak of mine sometimes actually.

So if I shove turn with draws and min-raise with the nuts it will be obvious (did just that last night, my friend noticed it in 5 minutes of playing vs me and I've never played with him before)

He also said another interesting thing, for him a min-raise or a bit more than that size raise on the turn shows more strength than a shove. I wonder how most people view that at micros, a shove gives you more FE or a lesser raise size does?

(that doesn't really apply to this hand but more to balluga's theorem, but I think it's a good discussion for the times villain is the aggressor)