This is a discussion on $2 NLHE Full Ring: What's the move here pre? within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 20/11/4
Before I go into any analysis, here's the hand with the players involved:
Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.02 NL - Holdem -
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Qh Ah
fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, BTN raises to 9 BB, SB calls 8.5 BB, BB calls 8 BB, Hero ?
So here's the situation. I'm opening in the CO with AQs, a premium in these positions, pretty standard. The BUT then 3bets me, and I've pegged him as a reg who knows his stuff and is capable of 3betting light for sure. If you notice his stats, he's got an almost 12% 3bet percentage over 50 hands. While this might not be a huge sample, I take this to mean that he's not always nutted when he 3bets.
Here's where things get interesting...we have two massive WHALES in the blinds, who both flat call. Take a look at their stats and you'll know what I mean, both are passive and have quite a high VPIP. So when it folds back to me, knowing that these two fish would most likely 4bet QQs+ and I even block queens and also knowing that the BUT player is a reg and under most circumstances could most likely be three betting me light here, what do you guys think is the correct play here pre? Also note that I had seen these two passive players do some goofy stuff preflop, so in my mind if I jam, I can definetly get called by a worse hand in the blinds, especially considering they're so short stacked? If I call, we'll have a little bit than 2 SPR pot and won't have much maneuvering capabilities post flop, as there will be around .70 in the pot if I call and effective stacks are roughly $1.30 at this point. So what's the play? Go 4 ways to the flop and if I miss, just check/fold? Or if I assume that button isn't always nutted here, could I jam and try to take down a huge pot pre (30+BBs) and potentially get called by a worse hand in the blinds? What's the verdict people and players of CardsChat?
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Since I can't see Flop stats (cbet and fcbet) as well as AF in general or f3bet, I can't exactly judge accurately if this is a situation to 4bet, fold or call.
For me, based on those stats alone, I am assuming that Sb and BB are really passive players in general, so they are not likely to raise at the flop even if they hit just to let you raise into them. Additionally, the most apparently aggressive and dangerous player (in terms of all-in BB total) is acting after you post-flop and will punish you hard if you bet small or check (I don't know how Loose of an Agg player he is as I lack the stats mentioned).
So, in short, I agree that calling here is problematic because you are opening yourself to being outdrawn and slowplayed by SB and BB or outdrawn and bullied by BTN. I would actually consider folding here if both SB and BB have AF below 15-18% margin and if BTN is known to Cbet very consistently and even worse has high AF overall in those 47 hands.
Folding because you easily are against AK, QQ or something here.
I would raise if SB and BB are just plain passive rather than tight-ish passive (and you can tell they are loose from their VPIP especially Sb as you got 55 hands on him).
I would call if BTN is not very high percentage cbetter and if his AF is not that high post-flop.