$2 NLHE Full Ring: HUD says -EV, I am not sure if I agree

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Nymets5

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Wondering if I played this hand right. My HUD says this was a -EV play, but I am not sure if I agree.

GAME: NL 0.01/0.02

Preflop
Villain (81 BB) UTG +1: Raises to .05
KK-Hero (50 BB) MP : 3 Bet to .15

Villain calls and it folds around and we go heads up to the flop

Flop(Pot $0.32)
KsTsJh
Villain checks
Hero raises to 0.08
Villain 3 bets to $0.20
Hero calls

Turn($0.72)
KsTsJh 9d

Villain shoves, I call
Villain shows AQ

River
KsTsJh 9d Th

Hero wins (thankfully)

Analysis:
Going through this hand, I made a lot of mistakes with my bet sizing. I had the villain on AA,QQ,ATs+,ATo+, which makes me a 67/33 favorite. When the flop came, I anticipated a check raise, so I bet small to keep the pot down since there was a flush and straight draw on the board. Also, I am still a good favorite against the range of hands. The turn came and he moves me all in. I should have known that he had the straight, but I still thought he was on a flush and was trying to move me out with an all in. I call, which was the wrong decision, but I ended up getting lucky. I am looking for your input on this hand, specifically on my bet sizing and if I played this in a -EV way. Tbh I feel like the EV function on DriveHUD (or really any HUD) is kind of useless but maybe I am just looking at it wrong.
 
John A

John A

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Well, since I'm probably the most qualified to talk about DrivehudEQ. :) I think considering the stakes and the action the EV is likely correct. That being said, with any tool it's not going to expressly decide exact EV all the time, and that's why you can adjust the range.

The range you offered though for your opponent is significantly off imho. I don't think players at 2nl are going to be checkraising the flop with AT,AJ, probably even AK. Think considering the action your opponents range will be more sets and straights, and maybe pair + draw (KQ).

If they had just check called the flop, the range would have gotten wider, but considering he check raised flop and shoved turn, your going to be looking at more made hands than draws at this level based on my experience.

But with any tool, it's a guide. I think DhEQ is a really good tool (and I even use it with my play), but it's not always going to be 100% accurate. It will always get you in the ballpark though, and using the hand grouping function is an AWESOME tool for understand range distribution and balance.

I use this part of drivehudEQ all the time for making sure I'm properly balancing my range distribution in common spots. I think this is even more important than the EV solutions.
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Nymets5

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Thanks for the response John, I did not want to diss your product at all, as I have found it very useful, I just didn't have a good understanding of how the EV tracker worked. There is a lot of things that I have not figured out yet in the HUD, I need to spend more time with it.

I had him on those ace hands because it was early in the session and he had been playing tight and only with an ace, though I guess my logic is off there since the sample is so small. For the lower limits, is a typical check-raise range limited to made hands (sets,full house) and big pairs like AA,KK?
 
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