$2 NLHE 6-max: BTN vs SB Overpair facing flop donk single raised pot

pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

UTG: $2.03 (102 bb)
MP: $2.20 (110 bb)
CO: $2.12 (106 bb)
BU (Hero): $3.11 (156 bb)
SB: $2.04 (102 bb) New to the table so not much read on SB. SB is likely a bit loose preflop playing 50/30.
BB: $1.91 (96 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BTN with K♠ K♥
3 players fold, Hero raises to $0.06, SB calls $0.05, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.14) T♣ 5♦ Q♠ (2 players)
SB bets $0.06, Hero calls $0.06

I can probably raise OTF but perhaps need to fold to 3bet. What do you think?

Turn: ($0.26) K♣ (2 players)
SB bets $0.28, Hero calls $0.28

I think calling is the best play facing this overbet given SB could have straight here and I doubt he would bet two pairs with this size, and keep JTdd, JTss in his range.

River: ($0.82) 3♥ (2 players)
SB bets $0.53, Hero calls $0.53

With this bet size, the hand I could beat is probably 55/TT only. I think NL2 players most likely underbluff here.

How would you play?

quant1986 said:

New to the table so not much read on SB. SB is likely a bit loose preflop playing 50/30.

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How many hands are we talking about? You said you were new to the table?

quant1986 said:

I can probably raise OTF but perhaps need to fold to 3bet. What do you think?

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Id like to call, I don't think we will get called by worse and we want him to keep bluffing.

quant1986 said:

I think calling is the best play facing this overbet given SB could have straight here and I doubt he would bet two pairs with this size, and keep JTdd, JTss in his range.

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Yeah he polirizes himself very hard here, also think it's fine as played.

quant1986 said:

With this bet size, the hand I could beat is probably 55/TT only. I think NL2 players most likely underbluff here.

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This really depends on the player. I generally agree that the population underbluffs that spot, that being said, I don't think even regs at Nl2 are somewhat balanced. Also I would think any nutted valuehand wants to jam the river.

If I understood correctly there is no history(do you have a sample on most regs? ) , therefore it is more likely he's a fish since you don't know him I'd call. He can missplay plenty of hands here. Would fold to a jam though.

I agree with the call on the flop as you say he will not call a raise with worse here. Where I disagree though is on the turn. I don't think he is donk leading AJ on the flop so I am not too worried about the ace high straight. I would be a little concerned about J9 being in his calling range pre flop and then donk leading that on the flop with the open ender. I disagree that he would not play two pair this way. If he held something like KQ or K10 (not as likely since we have two blockers) or Q10 I feel he would bet large on the turn with there being 3 connected cards on the board. I also believe he would play a set fives or tens this way as well except I dont see villain donk leading those as much but its possible. I think we have a very strong hand here given with the donk lead our opponent should not have many straights so I would want to start making this pot bigger so we can get stacks in on the river if we so choose. That might seem a little too aggressive (maybe a reason why I lose in cash lol) but I would be playing this hand with the thinking that villains straight combos are far outnumbered by the liklihood of two pair and sets which I beat. I dont think villain is folding two pair either so I would be going for a raise on the turn. I will say though with their stats for a few hands, J9 scares me more than AJ because of the flop play.

Hello, I agree with hero that on the flop we can raise opponent's bet, I don't want to give opponent cheaply the turn card, we probably have the best hand on the flop. The flop isn't too dangerous, so I raise this bet for about 3x. On the turn came good cards for pocket KK. I'm not sure if opponent has ajo, because with hand ajo is more possible that opponent would check the flop OOP, but more posssible hand is j9 or kjo that excatly can bet on the flop for less than 50% of the pot with open ended straight draw. So I think on the turn and on the river only call is right decisions. Everything would change if we play raise on the flop with over pair and we will choose another line. GL