The Leveling Wars, Episode III: The Revenge of the Fish
PokerStars Zoom,
Hold'em No Limit - $0.02/$0.05 - 6 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker
UTG (Hero): $7.21 (144 bb)
MP: $8.08 (162 bb)
CO: $12.25 (245 bb)
BU: $5.17 (103 bb)
SB: $5.44 (109 bb)
BB: $7.57 (151 bb)
Pre-Flop: ($0.07) Hero is UTG with J
♠ K
♠
Hero raises to $0.15,
1 fold, CO calls $0.15,
1 fold, SB calls $0.13,
1 fold
Flop: ($0.50) 5
♠ J
♣ K
♥ (3 players)
SB checks,
Hero checks, CO checks
Turn: ($0.50) 9
♥ (3 players)
SB bets $0.50,
Hero raises to $1.50,
CO folds,
SB raises to $5.29 (all-in),
Hero calls $3.79
River: ($11.08) Q
♠ (2 players, 1 all-in)
Total pot: $11.08 (Rake: $0.46)
Showdown:
SB shows 5
♥ 5
♣ (three of a kind, Fives)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 50%, Flop: 79%, Turn: 91%, River: 100%)
UTG (Hero) shows J
♠ K
♠ (two pair, Kings and Jacks)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 50%, Flop: 21%, Turn: 9%, River: 0%)
SB wins $10.62
Hello there Bluebottle88, thanks a lot for posting your hand!
Preflop
We will get 4 combos of KJs preflop, we are deep stacked so it is okay to open 3 blinds out of position.
Depending how "fishy" the players in position are (preflop calling stations), we can be creative and vary our preflop raise from EP accordingly to how often the players in position would call: 3.5 blinds, 4 blinds, even 5 blinds.
Be careful! Some regulars will notice that you are opening to get calls from whales and will either enter to pot trying to outplay you postflop, or they are going to outplay you preflop: a regular who knows a little your game (sample of 200 hands played, give or take), can exploit you preflop by making a 3-bet of 2.5x to 3x versus your 5x raise.
Some loose aggressive players will also try to do it, and then, a great part of your EP range will be in trouble. (We can only call and 4-bet 'safely' with a tiny part of our range AA, KK and AKs. For value. The rest we are speculating a lot about the capacity and ability of our opponent).
Flop
I don't love checking here. I don't love betting here either. We are out of position in relation to the player in the BTN. Nonetheless, if I had to choose between checking and betting here, I guess I would be betting more often.
The size would be something between 1/3 pot to 1/2 pot (If I don't know very well the opponents).
Because we raised preflop we will have all combos of the AA, JJ, KK and 55' on our range and the players who called will not have those. (55 not so much because we don't open 6 combos of low pairs from EP a 100% of times. I don't open).
When we raise from UTG we have a lot of combos of AK, AJ, KQ and KJ that will be dominating the preflop caller's range. Both of them, most of times.
The callers will have in a spot like this more combos of QT, AT, Qx and Ax, we never know. They will have a lot of low and mid pocket pairs, so, IMO, this flop is a bet for value and protection.
Some turns will not make our lives easier, such as Ax, Tx, 9x, another club, spade or hearts, but they are not too much worry. Giving a free card for two player is not a good option either.
Hands that could be checking these flop for inducing bluffs are JJ, KK and 55 with the sets, but, even so, I don't believe will be an optimal check, in a high frequency in a 3-handed pot.
So, SB checks, Hero UTG checks, and BTN checks. They have nothing right?
Turn
Comes a 9 of Hearts, and the player in the SB bets pot size! Remember that this player is a 100 blinds deep or a little more. Remember that it called versus UTG raisor and BTN caller, to play out of position versus two players. The SB range is capped in a situation like this, meaning that it will have ALL THE POCKET PAIRS (22 to JJ sometimes) and some strong broadways. Because SB's range is capped, it will not have many K9s, J9s, K5s, J5s and 95s in its range, it will have almost none of these combos, because many playes do not Cold Call preflop from the SB with a dynamic range (TAG's, NITs, Average Regulars).
When the turn completes a Straight and this guy bets pot, what is it representing, from the logical point a view?
A) Straight?
B) Set?
C) bluff?
If you believe the proper answer is C, good for you. We know that UTG will have more QTs than the SB but it is a very close spot. As I said, SB will not have many QT in its range, because this hand will be mostly dominated by QJ and KQ and your KJ. When the range is capped the player cannot have many combos, thus it will not have bluffs postflop.
When the SB bets a size pot and you have a vey strong value hand (Top Two Pair), and RAISES, you are
bluffing! You are trying to represent only QT and Two X Hearts with a Top Pair, Second Pair, and The Sets of K's, J's and maybe 9's (awesome semi-bluff that we can use to balance our very strong value hands, by raising turn in the same frequency we do it with sets and straights. I don't believe Top Two Pair are the best candidate for check-raising turn).
If I am raising my Top Two Pair in a turn when it comes a straight I am bluffing because I could be already dead. If I am raising my sets, I am bluffing because my sets could be nearly dead in the face of a straight (considering BTN player not SB. SB will not have many straights here).
Raised turn with a value hand: raise for value or bluff?
That's your decision, and I respect it, because many players at the micros are weak enough to bluff two pair and sets in a spot where exist a straight and two other players to talk.
When you raise SB in the turn for 3 times pot size, and the player in the BTN CALL/PUSHES and SB calls are you in? IF the player in the BTN calls your raise and only SB Pushes, are you in? IF both BTN and SB calls do you still believe you are ahead? And when the river completes more straights and flushes are you in 3-handed?
IF BTN folds, and SB pushes are you in? Remember that you still have a fair chunk of good stack size, you have more than 100 BB when SB shoves the turn for all-in!
The times you will be ahead here will be minimum, and those are when SB have Two Cards of Hearts plus straight draw (OESD+FD and OESD+FD+TP or SP). It doesn't have it because its range is CAPPED.
The times you will be losing will be the vast majority of times when SB will only appear with hands such as 55, JJ, some crazy KK that it decided to slow preflop 3-handed, 99 and QT (almost never).
So,
the turn is a very easy fold! I don't believe the mass of the population of the micros are creative enough to put an original air bluff like this in the turn, when SB has really nothing to show. (They exist but they are very rare, most players are THINKING, most of times they are thinking wrong, but they have some logic and everybody knows that a set is a very strong hand versus UTG's capped range).
SB also played wrong, because the Set of 5's could be dominated yet for JJ, KK, 99 and QT.
We see that SB turned a value hand into a bluff and the Hero UTG turned a value hand into a bluff. Coincidence?
Now, if you had called the pot size, perhaps you could achieve your equity in the River and kill the SB, for the times it comes a Kx or a Jx in the River.
By calling the turn you can evaluate the river equity again, and decide if you want to call, push or fold versus a capped range.
Regards;
Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa
