$10 NLHE Full Ring: Mid Set facing a bet on the turn

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orangepeeleo

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$10 NL HE Full Ring: Mid Set facing a bet on the turn

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 44/23/3

Villain stats are over 38 hands.

poker stars, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

Hero (MP2): $9.60 (96 bb)
MP3: $11.65 (116.5 bb)
CO: $10.25 (102.5 bb)
BTN: $5.25 (52.5 bb)
SB: $13.55 (135.5 bb)
BB: $2 (20 bb)
UTG+1: $14.90 (149 bb)
MP1: $8.65 (86.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP2 with 6
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6
spade.gif

UTG+1 calls $0.10, MP1 folds, Hero calls $0.10, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.10, SB folds, BB checks

Flop: ($0.45) 3
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8
spade.gif
6
club.gif
(4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets $0.20, Hero raises to $0.50, BTN folds, BB folds, UTG+1 raises to $1, Hero raises to $3, UTG+1 calls $2

Turn: ($6.45) J
club.gif
(2 players)
UTG+1 bets $4[/color

I didn't know what to make of this bet from the villain on the turn, should i have just pushed on the flop or would that scare him off too many times for it to be profitable?? Now that he bets out on the turn is this an easy push over the top, he's fairly aggressive so he could easily be doing this with 2 pair, TP, maybe he called on the flop with 2 overs and hit his jack on the turn???
 
Steveg1976

Steveg1976

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Ship it, the J completes no draws and you can't fold here.
 
kleitches

kleitches

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Snap shove. Never folding a set here, especially to a 44/23. Look at the board and look at your hand, you're ahead of pretty much everything in his range.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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If you even think of folding a set here you've made a mistake.

You likely could have got it in on the flop. He has something he likes but with those stats he could easily have 83 and think he's going to win your stack.
 
GunslingerZ

GunslingerZ

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If he has 88 and you don't lose your stack in this spot, then you made a mistake somewhere.
 
MrDuff1331

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There are two hands that have you beat at this point which is a good thing for you. having the third nuts is huge. it is unlikely that he has the club draw. he could have easily been playing 79 suited it 38 suited, and could have them in clubs. but i am guessing he has just a straight draw. i don't think he has a set of 8's because i think he would have put you all in on the flop after you raise him all those times. the biggest thing you have to worry about that is unlikely is pocket jacks. he was playing his jacks hard on the flop and slowed down when you re-raised it to three. then when he hit his third jack he would bet out again. so at this point if you think he is on a draw you can keep raising and if you think you are beat you might just want to see it to the end for as cheap as you can the rest of the way because this is too hard to let go of, especially with all of the money in the middle! either way you are winning or losing a big pot and you can't really blame yourself if you lose. Having the third nuts after the turn is huge and there is no strong inclination that he actually has you beat.
 
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orangepeeleo

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I'm glad there were a lot of "if you dont ship it your making a mistake" "if he has 88 and you don't lose a stack you made a mistake", I did lose a stack here to a set of jacks :mad:

This is an obvious decision here but i was really starting to doubt myself at the time so put this hand up, thanks for taking the time to point out quite an obv answer
 
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