$10 NLHE 6-max: range evaluation OOP on T52dd flop

mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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Global poker 10NL 0.05/0.10

for learning purposes, stacks are all 100bb, villain is unknown.

Hero is UTG and open raises to with 3bb w/ {22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,ATo+,KJo+,QJo,JTo} (240 combos) (edit: forgot that i had card removal on, so some combos are removed by the flop on this range, but you get the idea lol)

835b1c7735c3bcf81c9f54e9b5f4192d.png



1 player calls from BTN

flop is :10d4: :5d4: :2h4:


hero cbets with {JJ+,99-66,5h5s,5h5c,5s5c,2d2s,2d2c,2s2c,KJs,QJs,KdQd,AhJh,AsJs,AcJc,AhTh,AsTs,AcTc,KhTh,KsTs,KcTc,QhTh,QsTs,QcTc,JhTh,JsTs,JcTc,Ad9d,Jd9d,Th9h,Ts9s,Tc9c,Ad8d,9d8d,Ad7d,8d7d,Ad6d,Ad4d,Ad3d,Ad2d,AJo,KJo,AdTh,AdTs,AdTc,AhTs,AhTc,AsTh,AsTc,AcTh,AcTs,JdTh,JdTs,JdTc,JhTs,JhTc,JsTh,JsTc,JcTh,JcTs} (133 combos)
fc4110bb67114cb4760599471c503631.png


and hero check-calls with {44-33,ThTs,ThTc,TsTc,AKs,AdQd,AdJd,AKo} (33 combos)
bc4206dac8b13a519da3867481c06193.png



and check folds the rest (74 combos)


do you agree with these ranges? what would you do differently? why or why not?
 
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mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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Is that "huh" like you dont get it or more like youre just acknowledging that this post exists?


Rather than thinking about how you play just one hand, its better to consider your entire range in order to develop a more complete strategy.
 
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braveslice

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So is our cbet value range? 66 combos: {JJ+, AdTh, AdTs, AdTc, AhTs, AhTc, AsTh, AsTc, AcTh, AcTs, JdTh, JdTs, JdTc, JhTs, JhTc, JsTh, JsTc, JcTh, JcTs, AhTh, AsTs, AcTc, KhTh, KsTs, KcTc, QhTh, QsTs, QcTc, JhTh, JsTs, JcTc, ThTs, ThTc, TsTc, Th9h, Ts9s, Tc9c, 5h5s, 5h5c, 5s5c, 2d2s, 2d2c, 2s2c}

Probably some Top pairs needs to be in the calling range? JT might be too weak to call, but maybe QT?
 
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braveslice

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Btw just running GTO+ solver of the case (first time ever) and I can say that gto solution looks like fish in fire =)

Btw Gto says that we should check most top pairs, check call range is mostly top pairs and under pairs.
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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So is our cbet value range? 66 combos: {JJ+, AdTh, AdTs, AdTc, AhTs, AhTc, AsTh, AsTc, AcTh, AcTs, JdTh, JdTs, JdTc, JhTs, JhTc, JsTh, JsTc, JcTh, JcTs, AhTh, AsTs, AcTc, KhTh, KsTs, KcTc, QhTh, QsTs, QcTc, JhTh, JsTs, JcTc, ThTs, ThTc, TsTc, Th9h, Ts9s, Tc9c, 5h5s, 5h5c, 5s5c, 2d2s, 2d2c, 2s2c}

Probably some Top pairs needs to be in the calling range? JT might be too weak to call, but maybe QT?
I was counting 66-99 as value too, targeting overs that might call light, wheel draws and flush draws making my cbetting range 90 combos for value and 43 as bluffs.

good point about adding some top pair combos to the checking range, I think I'd prefer JT in the checking range rather than QT, I dont think JT needs to worry about being outkicked, even though it is a possibility, there arent that many combos of better Tx out there. Maybe put JT and some of the Ad2d-Ad4d combo draws in the check-calling range

anyways, the point of this exercise to me is to start building the skill of building ranges quickly. I think with enough practice it will become second nature and ill be able to think about my whole range rather than just the two cards I have
 
mbrenneman0

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Btw just running GTO+ solver of the case (first time ever) and I can say that gto solution looks like fish in fire =)

Btw Gto says that we should check most top pairs, check call range is mostly top pairs and under pairs.
yeah I ran it in GTO+ after I did this too. a lot of the combos are pretty close, like 60/40 check/bet. I really like that program, not as accurate as pio, but a millioin times cheaper and i like the interface haha, just wish i know if i could put custom villain postflop ranges to build optimal exploitative strategies :p

EDIT: one limitation of GTO+ is the bet sizing, i think it usually assumes a singular bet sizing, so it would probably be worth while to try it with some different bet sizings to see how it affects the overall EV on each street as well as how it affects the c-betting vs check/call and check/fold ranges. ill do that a little later
 
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braveslice

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Gto solution to CB or Not has EV 3.05, modded human solution has EV 2.92 where hands are tried to group to human understandable rules. Combos are just estimations bc I’m too lazy. Bet size is 100%. I always knew that deciding CB is hard, but really this hard :O


Bet for1: sets, medium overpairs (QQ,JJ), Flush draw (37 combos)
Bet for2: includes every hand left with a diamond (37 combos)
Check for1: top pair, strong overpairs (AA,KK), weak pairs (83 combos)
Check for2: missed hands without a diamond (82 combos)


Used villains range: JJ-33,AQs-ATs,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,AQo

yeah I ran it in GTO+ after I did this too. a lot of the combos are pretty close, like 60/40 check/bet. I really like that program, not as accurate as pio, but a millioin times cheaper and i like the interface haha, just wish i know if i could put custom villain postflop ranges to build optimal exploitative strategies :p

EDIT: one limitation of GTO+ is the bet sizing, i think it usually assumes a singular bet sizing, so it would probably be worth while to try it with some different bet sizings to see how it affects the overall EV on each street as well as how it affects the c-betting vs check/call and check/fold ranges. ill do that a little later

Good luck with the program, seems so unpractical to have meaningful results. Remember to comment or send private if you learn something cool.

CardrunnersEV can do that custom stuff, you might already have a license with PIO+. But it’s even harder to get meaningful results .
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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So running this with different bet sizings.

your range seems pretty nitty for the villain braveslice. maybe in your games thats a standard calling range from the BTN.

I used this range for villain instead: TT-33,AJs-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s,87s,76s,65s,AJo-ATo,KQo-KJo,QJo



running this with 4bb cbet size into a 9bb pot:
956266319806a0d65692d90f862f528d.png




here's check/raise, check/call and check/fold vs 4bb bet from villain:
d2d0d791a5f44903231399e598d102d8.png


overall expected value for hero's entire range with 4bb bet sizing is 4.92bb
32e5da14879fe26b877e69491a31e1c2.png





now with 6bb:
its not too much different but it makes a few combos much closer to a check than a bet. with 6bb bet sizing we slow down a little on 55, A5 and A2 and our AJo+ while playing 66-99 more aggressively.
2eee2b23422a9483a725c3b800a6c131.png



not going to worry much about analyzing the differences between check/call ranges here, thats a little too intensive for the purpose of just showing the main differences in our range on different bet sizes.

either way, our range here has a very slightly higher EV (probably negligable difference) of 4.94bb
6eba30dfc14690a18d13f8568a0e533c.png



overbetting with 17bb sizing now turns almost our entire range into a check...
b6e01c7ecf6d8f6b558b9e08efdfe820.png



of course, these solutions assume that villain is playing GTO and is using the same bet sizing that we are. I did figure out how to edit villains calling range and his betting range when checked to, but it would be interesting to see if you can generate a solution where hero uses one bet sizing and villain uses a different bet sizing. this would be especially useful for analyzing live 1/2 hands where players often make pot sized bets

maybe ill have to play more with this and analyze the hand where the villain calls a more realistic range vs our cbet than what the GTO solution shows. but for now im out of time. hope this information is interesting.

what bet sizing do you normally use on a board like this? personally I normally use a 4bb cbet sizing, but maybe i should reconsider that.
 
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braveslice

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Some forum guy said somewhere that selecting CB size 1/3 of pot means that we can CB 100%. Your analysis seems to hint this direction too.

I can't comment too much about ranges, but never seen that wide tag range charts than you are using. Are ranges from upswing? JTo UTG gives me chills, and QTo Button made me smile.
 
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braveslice

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It seems that the human logic is quite gto, big bet is scary and small bet is not that much =)
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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I think 100% cbet with 1/3 pot is pretty bad. The break down in the analysis above shows 62% cbet. Even though most combinations have some blue, i think its probably best to draw the line somewhere. I might try to do some further analysis. One thing i want to do is figure out how to convert the GTO range into a simplified approximation thats easy enough for a human to remember.

The UTG range is what I usually open with from UTG in 6max. Its pretty laggy for sure, but i think its okay as long as postflop is good. The BTN calling range is what ive been observing the general population calling with in global. One thing i need to work on is how to generate my own opening ranges based on table dynamics. Im sure its not hard, but im not totally sure on the process.
 
mitchy boi

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I feel like this is over explaining the situation to some degree yeh its great to have this maths side behind you or maybe as an MTT player its something i'm missing.

But this just seems like a spot of play the player?
 
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braveslice

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I feel like this is over explaining the situation to some degree yeh its great to have this maths side behind you or maybe as an MTT player its something i'm missing.

But this just seems like a spot of play the player?

Unknown player, but regardless we have already just from this short one hand example driven two major play principles a) use of bet size also to bet frequency (ie. 'if you bet bet small' principle on certain situations and 'if you bet he folds to small bet size too' principle.) b) When dry flop it's hard to hit and thus checking with strong range ie. slowplay is valid strategy, even more interesting the check range seems not to protect against villain having FD at all and that wide :eek: This is something I don't execute at all at practical level.
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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I feel like this is over explaining the situation to some degree yeh its great to have this maths side behind you or maybe as an MTT player its something i'm missing.

But this just seems like a spot of play the player?

I dont think youre seeing the bigger picture. Its important to know what your range is in any given situation if you want to be a really strong player. by understanding your range, you are able to answer questions like "can I bluff here? what hands can I represent? how do i balance my bluffs to avoid getting exploited here? what hands make up the top of my range? what hands are at the bottom of my range? If you are playing against players who are thinking about your range, then you should be thinking about your range too. The goal is not to memorize what hands you cbet on a T52hhd board. no one will be able to do that. The goal of this post is to work through the process of practicing building ranges so that I can learn how to build better ranges on the spot.

Unknown player, but regardless we have already just from this short one hand example driven two major play principles a) use of bet size also to bet frequency (ie. 'if you bet bet small' principle on certain situations and 'if you bet he folds to small bet size too' principle.) b) When dry flop it's hard to hit and thus checking with strong range ie. slowplay is valid strategy, even more interesting the check range seems not to protect against villain having FD at all and that wide :eek: This is something I don't execute at all at practical level.

regarding FDs, Ed miller breaks it down pretty well in a video on redchip about playing multiway pots in live 1/2. He says that on a flop with 2 to a flush, there are only a total of 50 possible combos of flushdraws that anyone can have. if youre in a game where youre going 5 ways to the flop regularly, that means they are playing a ~50% range (650 combos) so 50/650 * 5 players = 250/650 (5/13) that means if you see a flop with two of a suit with 5 other players, there is less than a 50% chance that they will have flush draw. crazy right? thats where ed millers analysis ends, but if you think about it, if you see a flop headsup against a decent reg, there is probably less than 1/6th chance that he has a flushdraw. realizing this has helped me find value in a lot of spots where I would otherwise push second best hands out of the pot by trying to charge the unlikely draw. I think the idea of betting big on flushdraw boards to charge flush draws is an outdated concept in poker.

this analysis is even a great example, in the screenshot above, our opening range only makes 16 flushdraw combos out of a range of 231 hands. thats only a 7% chance that we have a flushdraw out of our range.

isnt it crazy how much you can learn about poker theory by diving deep into just one flop situation?
 
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mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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I didnt realize GTO+ was still in active development. i thought it was abandoned like CREV... so apparently ive been using a nearly year old version and was missing out on some of the updates. one of the new updates allows a feature like i mentioned earlier where you can build advanced decision trees with multiple bet sizings. which is pretty intense haha. cant wait to explore hands against live players who use bad bet sizings lol

afd3005e74e96034493556e2791d4f9b.png
 
Alucard

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Your check calling range seems weird to me. Why on earth are we check calling Ts? And 4s,3s?T9s,JTs,QTs seems reasonable (also 8d7d,9d8d) & maybe A5,A2s and that's about it.
All the others I'm betting or check folding. Could go for check raises with A3s,A4s(specially diamonds)
 
mbrenneman0

mbrenneman0

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Your right, i forgot to have a check raising range. TT would probably be a better check raise than a check call. I wanted TT in my checking range to strengthen the range and help prevent villain from exploiting me be being super aggressive against my checking range and also because with top pair blocked, there are much fewer hands in villains range that we get value from when cbetting TT. However the GTO solution shows that TT should be a cbet.
 
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The offsuit combos of broadways below AJo should be excluded from these calculations imo, these are not game-optimal ranges guys come on, you should not open UTG with JTo or call on the BU vs UTG with QJo its burning money maybe even without considering the Rake.I see that you put your sets on your check-call range, what is the reason for that, On a board that you can get check-raised easily , how is your betting range gonna play vs that?
 
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