$10 NLHE 6-max: ka hits tptk but get raised what to do?

pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 - 6 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker

G.Buhgalter (UTG): $19.61 (196 bb)
aadje97 (MP): $23.19 (232 bb)
MrMefisto91 (CO): $14.65 (147 bb)
meepo20 (BU): $10.07 (101 bb)
saintGerg (SB): $10.00 (100 bb)
HOLLANDOMORE (BB): $10.00 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero (aadje97) is MP with A♥ K♣
1 fold, aadje97 (MP) raises to $0.25, MrMefisto91 (CO) calls $0.25, 2 players fold, HOLLANDOMORE (BB) calls $0.15

I open a-ko from utg+1 and get two callers. MrMefisto 91 is a 20/15 player. 20 vpip and 15 pfr. (335 sample size)

With those stats I put Mr Mefisto on the next calling range:

JJ-22, AQs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, AQo-AJo, KQo

Flop: ($0.80) 3♥ 8♥ A♣ (3 players)
HOLLANDOMORE (BB) checks, aadje97 (MP) bets $0.40, MrMefisto91 (CO) calls $0.40, HOLLANDOMORE (BB) folds

I flop tptk and I decide to make a half pot c-bet for value.

After MrMefisto 91 calls I put him on the next range:

88, 33, AQs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, AQo-AJo

Turn: ($1.60) 6♠ (2 players)
aadje97 (MP) bets $0.80, MrMefisto91 (CO) raises to $2.20, aadje97 (MP) calls $1.40

A non-heart turn, so that is a good card for me. I decide to make an other bet for value. Maybe my bet is a bit to small here? Because I give a really good price for a flush draw?

After Mrmefisto91 raises me on the turn I put him on the next range:

88, 33, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s

And now I doubt already, will he really reraise me here with a flushdraw? I might just fold now to his raise? I don't think he is reraising only top pair here so I deleted those hands out of his range. But I decided to call, he has some draws in his range and when I call now most people will not bluff on the river again if a non-heart is coming.


River: ($6) Q♦ (2 players)
aadje97 (MP) checks, MrMefisto91 (CO) bets $4.60, aadje97 (MP) folds

The river is a non-heart and I check. He bets around 75% of the pot and I decided to fold. My thoughts were: he probably will check back the river with a missed flush draw. The player seems solid and I dont expect him to bluff again. Because he knows that I have at least toppair here. So that puts his range in exactly 6 combo's:

88, 33

My question:
Was my handreading good for this specific hand?
How should I react to the turn-reraise?
Was my fold good on the river or should I have called?

Total pot: $6 (Rake: $0.27)
MrMefisto91 (CO) wins $5.73

A heart turn isn't bad for you either as you block villains flush draws and have a redraw on a heart turn with the A hearts.I think as played you can make a nitty turn fold i expect mostly sets and 2 pair.

We need to call 5 to win around 11, we are putting him on basically 6 combos on the river, that is really specific. Can he have anything different?

I don't get your logic for why he can't have a hearts draw bluff on the river... If he knows you have top pair, and he also knows you are capable of folding TP to a large river bet, then he has a very obvious bluff here. If he doesn't know you can fold TPTK here, then he can probably check it down. Unfourtanatley we hold the Ah, which takes away some of his Ahxh hands.

If he ever has maybe AJ, a hearts bluff, or AK himself we can call with 12ish combos (can we give him some AQ? That might 3-bet pre.) vs. at least 6.

aestheticsNL: "I open a-ko from utg+1 and get two callers. MrMefisto 91 is a 20/15 player. 20 vpip and 15 pfr. (335 sample size)"

What is his a) 3bet b) AFq c) WTSD?

your question:
Was my handreading good for this specific hand?
How should I react to the turn-reraise?
Was my fold good on the river or should I have called?

Hand reading:
PREFLOP:
Without knowing his 3 Bet stats and his Steal stats and call/3B vs Steal it is very hard to put him on a range preflop think that the range preflop is ok but would exclude AQs and not give him all suited connectors from 78s upwards. Would also not give him 100% KTs and QTs suited depends heavily on other stats. Would also give him 25% AK and AQ combos to make the picture more complete.
FLOP
Range you give him: 88, 33, AQs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, AQo-AJo I assume ofc only the diamond KTs+ and QTs+.
See preflop range.
TURN:
He check raises you on a A high board when both ranges are A heavy meaning that a bluff from him is less likely.
You give him the following range: 88, 33, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s I disagree here:
AKo (or does he 3 bet those?) is another possibility here and I would disregard the lowest flush draws JT and T9 and prob QT as he both gave you a good price and they are also beat by higher flush draws you can have. So in the end I would give him less flush draws but still AKo and 88 and 33 combos. Also other Ax hand could play this way to hope to get a cheap showdown.
My range estimate is something like this:
88,33,AJo,AJs-ATs,KhQh,KhJh,QhJh,JhTh,[25]AKo-AQo,AKs-AQs[/25]
RIVER:
His range AKo, AQ, 88, 33 and perhaps a few bluff hands like the missed flush draws. It is a tough spot in my opinion you having the A of hearts is not much a difference here he is not likely to bluff AJ, AT anyways with or without the A of hearts.

If he bets all his hands your equity would be 64% but would he bet all of his range?
Let throw out all hands that have some showdown value and are not AQ or AK from his range. His range now would be 88,33,KhJh,JhTh,[25]AKo-AQo,AKs-AQs[/25] and the equity of your hand is 25%.
If we now through out 33 your equity is 30%.
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Think it is a fold but would ask the following question
(To quote Braveslice)
What is his a) 3bet b) AFq c) WTSD?

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many sets will raise such a board on the flop in multipot. Need to watch the opponent's turn raise cbet, wwsf

"I put him on the next range:

88, 33, AQs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, AQo-AJo"

lol that is a pretty wide range! smh

You have two options. If you think, like that.


Bet-call on the turn. Check-call on the river (also pot size bet). You can't think "He will be afraid to bet on the river, as bluff". Otherwise your call on the turn is -EV.

The second option is to fold on the turn. Bet-fold. Maybe he have a flush draw. But this flush draw have good equity. Very expensive to find out what he may have.

I prefer bet-fold on the turn with this info.
If your call on the turn is "good", your fold on the river is bad.

Agreed with with Uko says, if we call the turn thinking we are ahead, river is a call as well. The board state doesn't change, the only thing that changed is now his A6 combos have sucked out. And im honestly not too concerned 'bout that. I don't see him taking this line with a weak Ax.

Thank you all for your answers.

His afq is 1.6

His wtsd is 29%

His 3-bet is 7.4% (6.3%) from the cuttof.

So yes he might 3-bet AQ as well. But his 3-bet range is probably polarized. So I cannot give him 6,3% of the top hands.

so JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ is a realistic 3-bet range I think. And than ofcourse some bluff hands like A2S,7-8S or something.

But the conclusion is that if you call on the turn you have to call on the river if no heart is coming. And if you think he has most of the time a set in this situation (What I was thinking) just fold on the turn?

aestheticsNL said:

...But the conclusion is that if you call on the turn you have to call on the river if no heart is coming.... ?

Click to expand...

In theory yes, but don’t forget that in general folding river is quite good exploitative line many times to take in micros due massive unbalances otr.

The river action chances his range. It is an action and certainly on micros people are not balanced and don't second barrel enough.

From a distance I would say that a case can be made to fold on the turn but that a fold on the river is the correct play as long as you don't have info that villain is over bluffing you on the river.