$10 NLHE 6-max: JJ vs BB squeeze

Not many hands but he is agro, and has a 7% squeeze already.

Would this be a shove, or a small 4 bet/call? Is anyone folding here?

full tilt poker $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2074022
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

SB: $10.00 - VPIP: 13, PFR: 9, 3B: 1, AF: 1.5, Hands: 592
BB: $10.10 - VPIP: 26, PFR: 18, 3B: 9, AF: 4.4, Hands: 164
Hero (UTG): $19.69 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 14, 3B: 6, AF: 2.3, Hands: 64285
MP: $10.35 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 6, 3B: 0, AF: 16.0, Hands: 208
CO: $15.92 - VPIP: 33, PFR: 8, 3B: 3, AF: 4.4, Hands: 483
BTN: $4.56 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 19, 3B: 12, AF: Infinity, Hands: 48

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is UTG with J :spade: J :diamond:
Hero raises to $0.30, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.30, 1 fold, BB raises to $1.20, Hero?

I probably make it 3$ and let him jam over us.

Don't like 4 betting. This kind of 3 bet is nearly always for value against your nittish UTG range.

I think flatting is slightly better than folding but I'm easy with either.

Edit: scrap folding. Note to self.. Stop being a nit.

BOOP BEEP BOOP BEEP

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PLEASE REFER TO STACKING CHART

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BOOP BEEP


* KK+: Good against any range
* QQ: vs 3% or higher
* AKs: vs 3% or higher
* AKo: vs 5% or higher
* JJ: vs 6.5% or higher
* AQs: vs 8% or higher
* TT: vs 8.5% or higher
* AQo: vs 9% or higher
* 99: vs 10.5% or higher
* 88: vs 12.5% or higher
* AJs: vs 13% or higher
* 77: vs 14% or higher

The more dead money you have in the pot, the wider we can stack these guys. That said, he's definitely squeezing a bit tighter than normal given the short stack in the middle and your relative positions.

Going to make a thread about this; there are way too many threads that don't need to be created and need only be referred to a chart.

Yeh never take the 3bet stat as true in extreme spots like utg-blinds otherwise you'll be constantly justifying horrible stack offs where regs are only really getting in KK+ etc

acky100 said:

Yeh never take the 3bet stat as true in extreme spots like utg-blinds otherwise you'll be constantly justifying horrible stack offs where regs are only really getting in KK+ etc

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Does this mean you're against 4 betting?

I'd far rather flat and play the hand IP than 4 bet effectively as a bluff because regs only stack AK, QQ+ here.

Whether or not it's a "bluff" is kind of irrelevant with all the dead money out there. It might be less profitable than bluffing ATo but it's still profitable. Flatting could be more profitable than stacking, but it's generally pretty spewy when we're in an utg squeeze spot and have a half stacked guy in the middle who's guaranteed to be playing shove/fold in this spot, and a squeezer we have relatively few reads on with regards to his squeezing range and postflop play.

Pot's gonna be at smallest 27bbs with 88bbs left. What do you do on Qxx/Kxx/Axx flops? When you have an overpair?

A shortstacker is likely to be a fish at 10nl so shove/fold probably isnt his only play.

The BB is 3 betting AK maybe AQ, TT+ for value and has a very small bluff range. Thats partly why my immediate thought was call or fold. When we 4 bet we fold out TT and def AQ, hands we can get decent value from by flatting. So we arent in good shape against his 5 bet shove range at all.

I like flatting less and less the more I think but Im sure its more profitable that 4 betting. I dm floating one street if an overcard comes and calling 1 or 2 streets with an overpair knowing he's unlikely to bluff in this type of hand very often.

I know you're a far better player than me but I genuinely think 4 betting is -EV, folding is obv 0 and for a good postflop player, flatting is +EV.

It's not about being better or worse - you likely have much more experience at micros than I do - your opinion is very very valid. I just don't know if I agree with it

I'm not arguing for 4betting, I'm simply arguing against flatting vs a relative unknown in a squeezed pot - SPR is tiny and we have a very vulnerable/tricky hand. For most micro players, this is going to cause a lot of problems.

youregoodmate said:

A shortstacker is likely to be a fish at 10nl so shove/fold probably isnt his only play.

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Fair enough.

Fish calls, ~3.60 pot, fish has like a pot bet left. Not sure how that changes the squeezer's postflop play but it definitely complicates things.

youregoodmate said:

The BB is 3 betting AK maybe AQ, TT+ for value and has a very small bluff range. Thats partly why my immediate thought was call or fold. When we 4 bet we fold out TT and def AQ, hands we can get decent value from by flatting.

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How is it we get value from AQ postflop? Maybe a cbet out of him on a low board. IF we get a low board. IF he cbets. And TT? We need a 9xx board or lower to get full stacks, realistically. Otherwise if we get a Qxx/Kxx/Axx board? We both lose value from the hand (I don't think it's ever folding pf if it's squeezing) and give it an opportunity to bluff us off the best hand should he merge bet these boards.

The rest of his range, according to you, is big hands.

youregoodmate said:

I dm floating one street if an overcard comes and calling 1 or 2 streets with an overpair knowing he's unlikely to bluff in this type of hand very often.

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1 or 2 streets because he's unlikely to bluff this spot often?

88bbs effective on the flop, 25bb pot on the flop (assuming shorty folds). If he bets the flop any significant amount then we're being threatened for stacks on the turn. This is the problem here is that I think you have the illusion that we can get to showdown cheaply in this situation. We have a tiny SPR when in a squeezed pot and we have to make sure we're willing to go with it if we call pf.

youregoodmate said:

I know you're a far better player than me but I genuinely think 4 betting is -EV, folding is obv 0 and for a good postflop player, flatting is +EV.

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Flat>fold>4bet may be true. vs largely polarized ranges it certainly is.

As a general statement though, without a very large part of his range being bluffs that we gain value from postflop, flatting vs a range that we can't profitably 4bet against is going to be costly.

you have position so I think calling is the best choice. you wouldnt expect a raise from that position without at worst having ak though so likely hero is not in great shape. you hit a set though on the flop and its probably an easy double

ChuckTs said:

I'm not arguing for 4betting, I'm simply arguing against flatting vs a relative unknown in a squeezed pot - SPR is tiny and we have a very vulnerable/tricky hand. For most micro players, this is going to cause a lot of problems.

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Yeah this is why I think the ability of hero is an important contributing factor.

ChuckTs said:

Fish calls, ~3.60 pot, fish has like a pot bet left. Not sure how that changes the squeezer's postflop play but it definitely complicates things.

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Yep it does complicate things.

ChuckTs said:

How is it we get value from AQ postflop? Maybe a cbet out of him on a low board. IF we get a low board. IF he cbets. And TT? We need a 9xx board or lower to get full stacks, realistically. Otherwise if we get a Qxx/Kxx/Axx board? We both lose value from the hand (I don't think it's ever folding pf if it's squeezing) and give it an opportunity to bluff us off the best hand should he merge bet these boards.

The rest of his range, according to you, is big hands.

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The rest of his value range. I only said his bluff range here is generally really small and is more profitable to flat against but not a big factor tbh.

ChuckTs said:

1 or 2 streets because he's unlikely to bluff this spot often?

88bbs effective on the flop, 25bb pot on the flop (assuming shorty folds). If he bets the flop any significant amount then we're being threatened for stacks on the turn. This is the problem here is that I think you have the illusion that we can get to showdown cheaply in this situation. We have a tiny SPR when in a squeezed pot and we have to make sure we're willing to go with it if we call pf.

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Well Im not counting a c-bet as a bluff. Essentially call the c-bet and see if he slows down, re-evaluate the turn but if we have an overpair its tough to lay down.

ChuckTs said:

As a general statement though, without a very large part of his range being bluffs that we gain value from postflop, flatting vs a range that we can't profitably 4bet against is going to be costly.

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Yeah I agree to certain extent. I just think for times he has QQ-KK and an K/A comes out our position will help us take it down if we are competent enough. I mean our flatting range looks a lot like JJ-QQ and AK so its easy to rep an A. Thats why I think a good player can make calling profitable in this situation.

Just my thought process, I dont think my experience at the micros makes too much difference except knowing its nearly always fit/fold poker and we can exploit that.

These kinds of dicussions are really good for my game, wish I got more of them.

aircasar9876 said:

you have position so I think calling is the best choice. you wouldnt expect a raise from that position without at worst having ak though so likely hero is not in great shape. you hit a set though on the flop and its probably an easy double

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+1
QFMFT

Im so glad to see ChuckTs is still here posting good stuff.

villain has 0 bluffing range here unless hes stupid, we don't get enough folds from the bb to make 4bet calling profitable vs him, it's closer than just saying it isnt profitable though as a non-zero % of the time the fish will stack with something worse or commit himself and the reg will fold but this dream situation is gonna be rare, i actually think its close between folding and calling, calling sucks but we can just bet everytime there is a non- Q+ flop and the reg checks to us cause he's gonna play honest with a fish in the pot, pretty happy just folding too, its never gonna be a major +EV spot

ChuckTs said:

* KK+: Good against any range
* QQ: vs 3% or higher
* AKs: vs 3% or higher
* AKo: vs 5% or higher
* JJ: vs 6.5% or higher
* AQs: vs 8% or higher
* TT: vs 8.5% or higher
* AQo: vs 9% or higher
* 99: vs 10.5% or higher
* 88: vs 12.5% or higher
* AJs: vs 13% or higher
* 77: vs 14% or higher

The more dead money you have in the pot, the wider we can stack these guys. That said, he's definitely squeezing a bit tighter than normal given the short stack in the middle and your relative positions.

Going to make a thread about this; there are way too many threads that don't need to be created and need only be referred to a chart.

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Please do. If possible, post a link.

If anyones in favour of 4bet calling here i'd like to see the maths and logic behind it cause mine don't make 4bet calling seem like a great proposition but i could be off somewhere

I think 4 betting is pretty horrible here tbh.

I don't use charts and shit, but my experience at 10nl tells me this is an easy fold. or if you think the ss will call, call and see a flop, and you have position vs the reg.

but I would just fold here because he has you by the balls.

but if you call, I think it is pretty easy to play postflop, flop comes with and A K or Q and BB bets you are out, flop comes with nothing bigger than a J and BB bets you are out, flop comes all smaller than a J and BB checks you bet hoping to stack the ss.

truth is there are too many things that can happen on flop. however, it is easy to play postflop vs the BB because I don't think he will cbet AQ or AK if he misses due to the ss.

All i care about for any play is the maths, and here i don't think it adds up to being profitable quite

I agree its pretty easy to play post-flop by calling though, as in we have easy decisions but like said, we are had by the balls pretty much so even though we have pretty easy decisions its not like its going to be major EV

youregoodmate said:

Don't like 4 betting. This kind of 3 bet is nearly always for value against your nittish UTG range.

I think flatting is slightly better than folding but I'm easy with either.

Edit: scrap folding. Note to self.. Stop being a nit.

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I stand by my first post then.

You could fold here and move on to more clear +EV situations in the hands that follow imo.


EDIT: after having read all the responses, I must agree with aircasar9876, if we can defo hit a set otf then flatting is the best option.

Cafeman31 said:

I must agree with aircasar9876, if we can defo hit a set otf then flatting is the best option.

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His analytical prowess is something to be admired.

It's a shame this is a full tilt hand. I think some sites have a button in between 'call' and 'raise' that says 'flop set' - hero could have just clicked that for ez money