This is a discussion on $10 NLHE 6-max: Is our boat ever good here? Facing river shove. within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; 10NL 6-max zoom on PokerStars. Villain is unknown.
Hero (MP): $12.13
Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is MP with Q♠ Q♦
1 fold, Hero
River: ($3.89) 4♦ (2 players)
Hero bets $3, BTN raises to $22.02 all in
Is our boat ever actually good here? Does the villain ever take this line with a hand like AK or a bluff, or will he almost always show a higher boat / quads here? Should we consider folding this river?
1st May 2016, 11:55 AM
Online Poker at: Pokerstars
Game: Texas Holdem
99 takes this line as well, thinking to get value from AK/AJ/AT.
And I wouldn't put it past the people at these stakes to do this with AK at all.
So we have 3 combos of 99 and 8 combos of AK that we beat, and 2 combos of AQ and 1 combo of AA that we're behind. Would he 3-bet A9 preflop? As then we have to count those 6 combos as well.
Ahead of 11, behind 3-9.
At worst we still have more than 50% equity. Even if we discount the AK hands to half, the call is still +EV, imo.