This is a discussion on Expected Income Formula within the online poker forums, in the General Poker section; Just at uni doing some accounts work and just wondered what the expected income formula was so i could work out roughly how much money
Just at uni doing some accounts work and just wondered what the expected income formula was so i could work out roughly how much money i was going to take in each month from playing?
29th September 2008, 5:33 PM
Online Poker at: Full Tilt
Don't set yourself up for failure like that. I mean you could say well I make $x/100 hands and play y hands per month, so y hands / 100 * $x is my "expected" monthly winnings. The real problem is variance (ain't it always). There will be months when you double your winrate and there will be months when you don't win at all. This is the reason why going pro is so hard. You need a couple of years worth of expenses just to be able to cover those months when you make nothing (or even lose $$).
Best advice: DO NOT COUNT ON POKER TO PAY YOUR BILLS UNTIL YOU GO PRO!
29th September 2008, 6:06 PM
Poker at: chinatown
Game: all of em
I don't know if this makes sense to anyone, but I like (and usually expect) to see about 10% rise in my BR monthly, which may be overly optimistic (is it?) but that's what I've been seeing the last year or so. Last 2 months saw a 5% loss respectively, but that's the variance at play (or my sloppy play -- I do get sloppy sometimes, gotta stop that).
So you can figure from there. To make a living at that rate, you need a pretty hefty roll.
Also, online, the expectation changes as you move to high limits. I don't know what happens up there much.
But by way of bragging, I saw a person sitting alone at a bunch of 5/10 to 20/40 limit stud tables recently. I jumped in at each level for a few minutes, took down a few pots, and left (hit and run). Kept it up till I had a few hundred bucks, then he stopped anteing with me... he he he
29th September 2008, 7:18 PM
Online Poker at: Stars
Game: NL bustovill
re: Poker & Expected Income Formula
As WV say's, it's very difficult to estimate an income based on an expected winrate. Of course it's easy to calculate if I win at 5PTBB/100, if I play X amount of hands, I can earn so many $/month. But I seriously doubt I have had 2 months that have beem comparable over the last 10 months I have been playing cash games.
The only time I make any calculations is to work out if I play like 100k hands and win at xPTBB/100, just to get an idea.
Just don't get caught up with making calculations and thinking you can plan around them. Plan on working up the limits with a good BRM, and reaching a limit that you can successfully beat and earn a decent income from imo.
29th September 2008, 11:36 PM
Poker at: Pokerstars
oh ryt i was just trying to just get a rough estimate of how much i could earn playing poker for my accounts forecast i wasnt planning on living off it as i have been applying for jobs also, thanks for your advice though!