Win rates, BB/100, and Check my math.
First off, I'm a megafish here who is extremely new to these types of concepts in this game.
What I'm trying to accomplish here is to find the necessary win rate to be profitable at this game.
Firstly, 100/9 (100 hands over 9 rounds) is 11.11, but let's say 12 on averag with sitouts etc.
So that will cost us 1.5bb per round equaling 18bb/100
12*1.5 = 18bb
Saying that we play 25% of hands for an average of 4bb cost per hand that makes 25 Hands for a total cost of 100bb
100*.25*4 = 100bb (lol duh)
100 + 18 = 118 bb total cost
Now my understanding of BB has been that it is 2*bb?
Is the 3BB/100 scenario purely profit? If so, what is a typical gross in terms of BB?
Also, moving on to find the necessary win rate for playing 25% of hands...
I've found that the average pot is about 12.5bb (correct me if I'm wrong).
Thus, ave pot * 25 hands is:
12.5*25 = 312.5bb
Thus the cost vs potential to win:
118/312.5 = .3776 or 37.76% winrate to break even.
Does this sound right? Also, how attainable is this win rate?
I've seen articles mentioning top pros averaging about a 38% winrate, so to me ~37.76% seems lofty.
Also, some other break even win rates required for other hand percentages:
20% of hands = 39.2% required wr
21% of hands = 38.86%
22% of hands = 38.55%
23% = 38.26%
24% = 38%
25% = 37.76%
26% = 37.54%
27% = 37.3
28% = 37.14
29% = 36.97%
30% = 36.8%
31% = 36.65%
32% = 36.5%
33% = 36.36%
34% = 36.24%
35% of hands = 36.11% required wr
I also went ahead and did this if the cost per hand is 3bbs as well and the result is the same as above minus 8% (i.e. 25% = 29.76%).
Note that the win percentage that I've calculated is not of all hands, but of all hands played.
Formula : ((hands played per 100) * (ave cost per hand played) + (cost of blinds)) / (ave pot)
Is my reasoning off? This seems kind of steep.