Taking a shot need some advices

Hello i played poker many years for fun and the last 1.5 year i decide to be more serious. I am playing at pokerstars 4 tables 2 16nl and 2 25nl because i am a bit short at br. At 16nl i have 4bb/100 over 100.000hands and at 25NL 2bb/100 over 30.000.

I had a serious problem and i had to withdraw money from my account.

My question is, would it be a very bad move if i move only at 25nl with 10buyin roll? Is it a suicide move? I think its very risky move but i want your opinion too.

Thanks in advance

geog said:

Hello i played poker many years for fun and the last 1.5 year i decide to be more serious. I am playing at PokerStars 4 tables 2 16nl and 2 25nl because i am a bit short at br. At 16nl i have 4bb/100 over 100.000hands and at 25NL 2bb/100 over 30.000.

I had a serious problem and i had to withdraw money from my account.

My question is, would it be a very bad move if i move only at 25nl with 10buyin roll? Is it a suicide move? I think its very risky move but i want your opinion too.

Thanks in advance

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Why would you even consider it.
4 x 16 = 64 / 100 profit at the 16NL
2 x 25 = 50 / 100 profit at the 25NL

10 buy ins at 25NL would give you 15.625 BI at 16NL assuming linear max buy ins. Why not just work your way back up with the least amount of risk and the highest expected win rate. Eventually if you reach 3 BB / 100 at 25NL then there would be a valid question of risk vs reward but here your win rate and your risk of ruin are both better at 16NL. I see no incentive other than ego to only play the bigger game. 30k hands is a decent sample so I don't think there's anything you can do to snap your fingers and get a better win rate at 25NL.

If you had to withdraw and only have 250$ left, then you should move down to 10NL. It sucks, but its not the end of the world. Games are really good right now because of the corona virus, so if you grind hard, you will be back at 16NL and then 25NL pretty quickly. This is a lot better than going bust and being forced to stop playing, because your ego prevent you from using proper bankroll management.

I agree with fundiver. Even $10nl with 25 buy-ins isn't great bankroll management, but it's a much more reasonable risk than 10 buy-ins where it's very easy to lose your entire bankroll with some run-bad.

Good luck grinding it back up!

You have a good sense - it is a suicide move not to follow the bankroll manager.

this is a suicide

gota agree with the rest it doesnt seem like a good move

My advice about taking shots is to use Armenian brandy. It's smooth, aftertaste is great, and almost no headache the morning after getting hammered

Collin Moshman said:

I agree with fundiver. Even $10nl with 25 buy-ins isn't great bankroll management, but it's a much more reasonable risk than 10 buy-ins where it's very easy to lose your entire bankroll with some run-bad.

Click to expand...

Ideally I also prefer more, but there are a few things, which can make a somewhat aggressive approach like this ok:

1) You are already a proven winner at higher limits, but due to life reasons you really can not set aside more money for poker right now.

2) You can play full ring, since variance tend to be lower there compared to 6-max.

3) If you find good games (very easy right now), your winrate will be higher, which reduce the magnitude of downswings.

4) On PokerStars you can use all-in cash out feature to reduce your variance. This is not ideal, but if the alternative is to move down further or risk going bust, it is the lesser evil.

take a shot. Have fun. But know your limits & drop down when needed
Fortune favours the brave

This is your ego saying:"You earned money and withdraw it and you now have 250$ for throwing so let's throw it quickly and enjoy in our earnings."If you listen to him you will play 25nl and suicide your self.At 10nl you have fair chances.Good luck with your choice.

Don't play on 10 buy ins, I've done it too many times. No need to say more.

Take 2 buy-ins to NL25 and take your shot. If that fails go with 20 buy-ins to NL10 and grind hard.

Hello again I am back after a few weeks.

You were right, it was my ego that I wanted to play at nl25 with 10buyins.

I told myself to sit down and grind nl16 and thankfully it's going good for the moment. I start with 15bi and in a few weeks with not much volume (I play 2-3 tables FR), around 1000hands per day I am standing at 32bi.

Thanks everyone for the help