Originally Posted by Poker Orifice
sure but there's not a problem if the guy is just trying to clear it while playing 2nl tables (it's not like he's going to jump up to 200nl just to clear the bonus.... or move from 3-tabling to 23-tabling).
I'm guessing this is on PartyPoker (because of the 2pts. per $1 rake).. or 'uuh'.. 888 because of his name on CC).
It'd seem you'd need to play ~6hrs./day for 3days (18hrs. total).
I'm not sure how long you've played for in the past during a day... but with the weekend here now, tables are always ALOT softer. If I were you, I would for sure add another table and just do it! If you're a winning player, you're going to hit the bonus AND you'll be winning a handful of buyins as well (it's the weekend!). Sounds like an easily do-able goal
OK let's make a rough estimate
if it is worth or not.
if this player winning rate 15BB/100 hands
he played 11.4K hands on 15 days
which means 768 hands per day with A game means make 75% correct play against weak player who make about 60% correct play.
now he needs to play 5.8K hands in 3 days in a rush.
if not in a rush...
he is expect to play 2.2K hands in 3 days
he needs to play some thing extra 5.8-2.2=3.6K hands
which means he needs to play about 1.5 times more.
if not rush he is expect to win 15BB/100*5800*0.02 = about 17 bux
his bonus is 13 bux
In this rush condition he needs to win at least 4 bux =200BB for that 5.8K hands
winning rate needs to be at least 3.4BB/100
here let's see if he could do this by multi-tabling
his muti-tabling mistake rate = normal 1 unite for 75% correct play
here he is playing for 2.5 unite
so his correct play is 0.75^2.5=48%
so against 75-60% player is 15BB
48% VS 60% player is negative BB
if he is doing like 80% correct play- I would expect he could not do 80% correct play and weak player could do more than 60% correct play but it does not matter
multi-tabling 2.5 times
80%^2.5=57% still could not beat the players pool of 60% correct play.
unless I think if he could do the 90% correct play
it could be some thing like 15/(90-60)*(76-60)=7.5+BB/100 hands.
I don't think he could do that well.
you know top player like Stu Ungar still make about 5% mistake...this is top player.
TOP SNG player make 3% mistakes
good cash regular make about 10% mistake... that is good cash player
if he is a good cash regular...he could directly play NL100-NL200 not NL2.
based on my rough estimate, My Idea is , it is a loss to trade winning rate for bonus in this case.