3 River Calls. Pick the Winners and Losers

Four Dogs

Four Dogs

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Let's play a little game.

Below are three $2/$5nl hands I played last night. All three are similar in that they all involve calling biggish river bets vs. decent players. In a vacuum all three may seem a little questionable but did involve considerable deliberation before making the calls. I'll be happy to explain my reasoning later but first let's play. This isn't just a guessing game and I think there's enough information in there to make some educated guesses as to which hands are more or less likely to be good and why. All criticism is welcome. Fire away!


Hand 1:
Villain is young Asian TAG with ~$700. Probably a winning player. He's very actiony and rarely gives up without a fight. I've got exactly $500. I've been bleeding chips but topping off after every hand.

I open UTG+1 to $15 with :ad4: :4d4:. One field caller, the V. calls in the SB as does the BB
[$65] :4s4: :2h4: :5d4: Asian TAG donks $40. BB Folds I call and the field caller folds.
[$145] :ks4: V. thinks for just a few seconds and bets $75. Call
[$295] :kc4: V. Instantly fires $285. Call

Hand 2:
Same Villain about an hour later. This is the first time we've mixed it up since the first hand but he now knows I'm capable of making big calls.
I open in MP to $20 with :4d4: :4h4:. The Button Calls and V. Calls in the BB
[$62] :9h4: :3c4: :5c4: V. Checks, I bet $40 Call Call
[$182] :jd4: V. Bets $60 I Call and Button Calls
[$362] :7s4: V bets $105. I Call and Button Folds

Hand 3:
This time Villain is a late 20s chip twirler who's new to the table but has already stacked up to about $800. He's good but he has a few leaks IMO. He raises his good hands but open limps too often IMO and I saw him 3! and call a 4! shove all-in on an ace high flop with no obvious draws. As he called he said "I think I'm gambling here." Amazingly he took down the pot with :as4: :6s4:. He probably knows nothing about me other than my stack size (~$900) and that I'm an older guy who folds alot preflop.

There's an EP limp and I raise CO to $25 with :6s4: :6c4:. V. Calls in the BB as does the limper.
[$77] :qs4: :10d4: :5h4: It checks around.
[$77] :kh4: V. Bets $40, Limper folds and I make the call.
[$157] :qd4: V. Bets $100 and I Call.
 
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braveslice

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Hand 1: 44 – We don’t see second hole card?
Winner:: Instantly calling usually is a tell from TAG a big tell really, so even though I would not have called I give hero a win.

Hand 2:
Lose:: Tag (I assume he is a tag like you say and not lag, even though young Asian seems to be a synonym especially designed for lag as I have understood from live topics here) has marked you as a nit-fish – no way he is bluffing you anymore on the river or give some part about your though process for the hand.

Hand 3:
Lose:: There is no hand left (except maybe J9s) that would be worse hand even when bluffing.

Also the rules for the game are not fair, given we need to insta read your way of picking the hands too :D Even though I do really like it and would like to see more of these. Suggestion: Next time announce how many losing ones / how many winning ones.
 
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Four Dogs

Four Dogs

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Thanks for playing braveslice, you got 2/3 not bad. I'll PM you the answers. I'll post the answers in the thread later.
 
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braveslice

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Thanks for playing braveslice, you got 2/3 not bad. I'll PM you the answers. I'll post the answers in the thread later.

Nice you had analysis / explanations prepared too, thx!!
 
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Hammii5010

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I’ll play

I am new to poker (once a week live $200NLHE for the last 4 months), so my poker knowledge is in then infancy stages.

Hand 1: V was on a straight draw that turned into representing KQ, KJ to force a fold.

You win with a hero call.

Hand 2: V has a set of 9s on the flop and prices just right to keep everyone calling. Even checks on the flop to let others bet out.

You lose.

Hand 3: V has AK off and decided not to reraise your PF bet from the BB.

You lose.
 
Four Dogs

Four Dogs

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I am new to poker (once a week live $200NLHE for the last 4 months), so my poker knowledge is in then infancy stages.

Hand 1: V was on a straight draw that turned into representing KQ, KJ to force a fold.

You win with a hero call.

Hand 2: V has a set of 9s on the flop and prices just right to keep everyone calling. Even checks on the flop to let others bet out.

You lose.

Hand 3: V has AK off and decided not to reraise your PF bet from the BB.

You lose.

Again, 2/3 with the same order. I PM'd you the answers and made some comments about your reasoning and thanks for playing.

I'll probably post the answers tonight when I get home. If anyone else wan't to jump in before that I'll probably just publish post your results and comments in the thread. Also, don't just try to guess what hand they have. This isn't a parlor trick, it's a hand reading exercise. It doesn't matter what their exact hand turns out to be, and it's not even about whether or not the calls are good or bad. All that matters is whether the call is more likely a winner or a loser.
 
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