Decision Time. FTP... should I stay or should I go?

I had outlined a grand plan last January for my poker play in 2011 that would take my $0 and turn it into $5k+ by the end of the year. Things so far are progressing well across several sites and from free starting capital promos, freerolls, and cash grinding my combined bankroll is now standing at $1300, with about $700 of that on FTP.

However, part of my plan involved an initial deposit to FTP in June (this month) from my winnings on other sites. I initially was hoping to make a $500-600 deposit to take advantage of the first-deposit bonus, which I was going to time to coincide with the Iron Man mid-year bonus so that I could get the most bang for my buck out of something like 60-70% rakeback during my play in July/August. That kind of rakeback is hard to pass up, and I've also built up my Iron Man months up to 6 consecutive now.

I also quite like the FTP software and Rush games, and coupled with good player traffic, rakeback, Iron Man, and the Academy points gives me lots of incentive to stay with them.

Enter Black Friday.

Obviously, my confidence in the company is a little shaken with recent events and all the people looking to get their money off the site as fast as they can.

Just how foolish of me would it be to go against the grain and deposit on Full Tilt this month according to my original plan? What are people's opinions on Full Tilt going under in the next 6-12 months and taking any and all funds that are in their accounts currently with them?

I mean, 70% rakeback is super sexy and all... and was probably going to be a pretty significant part of me being able to hit my $5k target for the year. But is putting my entire bankroll or close to it on FTP right now akin to betting it all on a single hand?

imo, change it to a 2mth. plan then take it month by month. I'm sure we'll have a much better picture of things as time progresses. (although there lookin' a little bleak at the moment)
I too prefer the software on there over all the others.

So at least for the next two months, you think us internationals will be able to cashout on Tilt (albeit perhaps a bit delayed?)

If so, then I should deposit as planned and play as much as I can with the 70% rakeback and then play it by ear from then on?

!!!

If you have the money to spare and can handle losing it,go ahead with your plan since you are not in the usa.
I personally hope Fultilt and the other sites under indictment, will fight this all the way to the supreme court.The UIGEA is very poorly written and I hope its proven to be a flop..which it is.

mrmonkey said:

So at least for the next two months, you think us internationals will be able to cashout on Tilt (albeit perhaps a bit delayed?)

If so, then I should deposit as planned and play as much as I can with the 70% rakeback and then play it by ear from then on?

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I have no idea.

Yeah, stuff like this is always so 50/50 without inside info.

Meh, I'm only really playing for fun anyways and even if I lose the money I had nothing invested in the first place other than my time.

Barring any crazy news or someone posting a persuasive argument as to why I shouldn't go ahead with it, I'm probably going to deposit near the end of the month and play it by ear down the line.

I used to play a lot on FT, but with the last things that happened, I cash out almost all my bankroll there. I let some money to play my favorite tournaments only.
For me, the only trustable room is Stars, they suffered the same thing as FT, but all international cash outs are still been processed immediatly while FT I'm still waiting for my money.
If I was you, I would not trust almost all my bankroll in one site that is being suffering with a lot of criticism and no one know what's going to be the future of the room.

I don't withraw huge amounts , but I was paid by FTP very quickly a few times during the last 2 months. There was no big delay last time when I wanted $150 to my visa on 2nd of June and money arrived on 7th..

I am located in Bulgaria (south Europe) and I trust FTP. They have always paid me on time except for the week after Black Friday.

Good luck with your plan.

Personally I withdrew all my funds save a few cents but will redeposit "if" the FT turmoil should be cleared anytime soon.

This will keep me from playing CC FT buyins for a while but I'm quite confident I can get a roll again by grinding a few private freerolls.

nightmoves44 said:

If you have the money to spare and can handle losing it,go ahead with your plan since you are not in the usa.
I personally hope Fultilt and the other sites under indictment, will fight this all the way to the supreme court.The UIGEA is very poorly written and I hope its proven to be a flop..which it is.

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You can still follow your plan, but imo, if you are running a profit atm, i would just run off that, rather than re-depositing.

Thanks for the responses so far everyone. I'm still hemming and hawing a bit, would appreciate any other insights others have as well.

BigJamo said:

You can still follow your plan, but imo, if you are running a profit atm, i would just run off that, rather than re-depositing.

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Well, I have a golden rule for myself that is to never deposit a cent of my own money into online poker. Anything I have earned in my poker bankroll is 100% from "free" money, so it's always going to be profit.

One of the key components of the $5k plan was to make this deposit in June so that I'd have a consolidated $1200+ roll with 70% rakeback at the mid-year point with which I can make a serious and rakeback-buffered venture into 25nl and 50nl games. If I do not consolidate my bankrolls at this point in time I will be stuck continuing the grind at 10nl and without the double bonus... which would likely set me back considerably from my $5k pace.

grafkarow said:

Good luck with your plan.

Personally I withdrew all my funds save a few cents but will redeposit "if" the FT turmoil should be cleared anytime soon.

This will keep me from playing CC FT buyins for a while but I'm quite confident I can get a roll again by grinding a few private freerolls.

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I wouldn't miss those games ever! Sad to hear you won't be playing them now

Poker Orifice said:

I wouldn't miss those games ever! Sad to hear you won't be playing them now

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Well - I already miss them.

In fact the CC games are too juicy and fun to let them entirely go.

I just binked a win in todays carbon CC buy-in for 51$... maybe I can find someone to transfer lolol.:vroam:

First off, congrats on your progress monkey...to think we were playing 5nl rush on ftp only 2 months ago lol

but I think you should go for it, FTP is "shaky" right now, but before they go completely under, they would just not pay U.S players (which wouldnt effect you) (sorry if im not making sense) For that good of a deal, go ahead w/your original plan

gl on the grind and hit me up for a sweat or something some time

Stick with your original plan!

Full Tilt is still a very profitable business.
It was the owners/management that was breaking laws moving deposits/withdrawals for US players. How they did it was very wrong.

As a company, Full Tilt will survive. It make have to sell to different owners but that would actually be a good thing.

If I wasn't in the US, I make deposits.

xdeuceswild81xx said:

First off, congrats on your progress monkey...to think we were playing 5nl rush on ftp only 2 months ago lol

but I think you should go for it, FTP is "shaky" right now, but before they go completely under, they would just not pay U.S players (which wouldnt effect you) (sorry if im not making sense) For that good of a deal, go ahead w/your original plan

gl on the grind and hit me up for a sweat or something some time

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Thanks man, I should try to participate more in the monthly cash talk thread. I'd love to do a sweat sometime though it's been really hard for me to schedule time... hence the reason why I end up playing Rush here and there as opposed to going for the regular tables.

Also, Rush = crack and it's hard to break that damn habit, lol.

marvingubba said:

Stick with your original plan!

Full Tilt is still a very profitable business.
It was the owners/management that was breaking laws moving deposits/withdrawals for US players. How they did it was very wrong.

As a company, Full Tilt will survive. It make have to sell to different owners but that would actually be a good thing.

If I wasn't in the US, I make deposits.

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I do think the current ownership really made a mess of things. One thing it does have going for it is branding, which does not die overnight. It's also still the #2 poker site worldwide in terms of traffic I believe, and it does seem that if indeed they do file bankruptcy that someone would probably come along to scoop it up.

mrmonkey said:

I do think the current ownership really made a mess of things. One thing it does have going for it is branding, which does not die overnight. It's also still the #2 poker site worldwide in terms of traffic I believe, and it does seem that if indeed they do file bankruptcy that someone would probably come along to scoop it up.

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For certain the brands are still valuable.
Even without the US market, PS and FTP still have solid business models and
will continue to be profitable.

I don't foresee any bankruptcies in the future, just an exit of the current owners.

As long as you aren't in the USA, I wouldn't fret about FTP or any other site that got hit on Black Friday.

Their profits of course got lowered but they still make a huge amount of money. The courts here will take years before anything really happens in the USA, not to mention the world wide base of players would go up in arms if anything that happened here affected their ability to play.

If I wasn't in the US I would still be playing on FTP, I think it will be around for a long time, I even secretly hope I can get back on one day.

FTP, to me, is/was the best poker site available, I joined the first year it opened. I pine for FTP

As much as I love the FTP software and Rush Poker, I can't bring myself to leave my bankroll on there. I play the CC freerolls and money-added games, but I withdraw as soon as I cash in them.

The games aren't as good as they used to be pre black friday anyway. Micro rush is outrageously nitty and not really worth playing at all. There are other sites out there with much worse players and decent rakeback deals. Leaving substantial amounts of money on full tilt is just unwise.

If you really can't get away from that 70% rakeback I would suggest depositing the $600, and insta-withdrawing all but ~10 buyins of whatever level you play. I mean, just because the money isn't in your full tilt account doesn't mean it's not part of your bankroll.

Aldito said:

If you really can't get away from that 70% rakeback I would suggest depositing the $600, and insta-withdrawing all but ~10 buyins of whatever level you play. I mean, just because the money isn't in your full tilt account doesn't mean it's not part of your bankroll.

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Hmm, that sounds like a really good way to go about it. I hadn't thought about this route, thank you very much for the suggestion. As long as I can avoid any psychological issues in seeing just a partial bankroll being played with on the site then this would probably be the safest way to go forward with the 70% rakeback. I suppose even with a full roll sitting on the site, a 10-15 buyin downswing with 70% rakeback would probably cause me to pause and analyze my game a bit anyways, possibly dropping levels for a bit.

mrmonkey said:

As long as I can avoid any psychological issues in seeing just a partial bankroll being played with on the site then this would probably be the safest way to go forward

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Yup, this will work if you're not the "check my bankroll after every hand" type. If you are, I would suggest moving.

Aldito said:

If you really can't get away from that 70% rakeback I would suggest depositing the $600, and insta-withdrawing all but ~10 buyins of whatever level you play. I mean, just because the money isn't in your full tilt account doesn't mean it's not part of your bankroll.

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As an extra precaution, you might try a minimum withdrawal, and wait until it clears, before you deposit the $600.


Additionally, you'll want to ensure that the insta-withdrawal won't affect your entitlement to the double bonus.


Good luck.

IvanShovski said:

As an extra precaution, you might try a minimum withdrawal, and wait until it clears, before you deposit the $600.


Additionally, you'll want to ensure that the insta-withdrawal won't affect your entitlement to the double bonus.


Good luck.

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Unfortunately, I can't withdraw anything yet because I have never deposited on FTP. In order to take full advantage of the bonus, my first deposit has to be a big one.

That is a good point about the insta-withdrawal and whether the site will allow me to do it that way and still earn the bonus. I'll have to check the fine print and terms of the deal. Does anyone here know one way or the other off hand?

I think I'm mostly decided that I'm going to be moving ahead with my original plan and stay on FTP for at least the next month or two, but if the insta-withdrawal plan works I will definitely be doing it.

I remember someone posting earlier that depositing the money, getting the bonus, then withdrawing the money makes it where you give up your bonus.

However the person that did this Only had the money he deposited in his account when he withdrew it. I have no idea if you give up the bonus if you retain money in the account, it also may depend on the amount of money you still have in the account compared to the bonus left to claim when you withdraw.

My gut tells me, if you deposit and then try to withdraw before you have claimed all of your bonus, you will be giving up the bonus

For anyone interested, I contacted FTP support and they said withdrawing money before clearing my bonus would not affect my bonus, and I will still have 120 days from the time of deposit to clear it all.

It also appears that the first-deposit bonus is now actually applicable to the first three deposits you make within 60 days of the first deposit, although you will only have 120 days to clear a bonus from the actual FIRST deposit you make. So for example, I could deposit $100 on June 1st, $200 on July 1st, and $300 on August 1st and I'd still be getting a total of a $600 bonus clearing at $20 per 500 FTP good till the end of September.

This is good news, as it allows me to make an even smaller initial deposit to test the efficacy of the current withdrawal process before committing the rest of my roll.