TheKid's Parlay Megathread v2.0

[TheKid84]

Greetings Ladies and Gentlemen,

About this time last year, I started a thread that logged my thoughts and bets for the NFL Football season. This year, I'd like to continue the tradition and hopefully win some bucks.

It was a good time last year. Had some other members join in on the fun, share some knowledge and thoughts on bets, all in all a good time. Heck, that's why we're here isn't it. For giggles, I have last year's in my signature. It's always a good read.

The avenues will be Carbon and Bovada. Being based in the USA those have been the best options for me to build a bank roll playin poker and betting. I will primarily be using the Parlay option of betting on the NFL games. Parlays, for those who don't know, are bets on multiple actions and all need to win for the bet to pay. Big risk = big reward. I do enjoy the teaser parlays where you can gain some points in your favor for less of a payout. With my knowledge of the game/teams, I will look to exploit those a bit.

Don't be shy, feel free to post any thoughts, I've had some positive and negatives in the past, don't feel like I'll bet my way to bankruptcy for my bankrolls are built on profit as it is. I love NFL, betting gets the motor going a bit more, and winning money on top of that is even better. Let's have a great year everyone, cheers.

 

[TheKid84]

Carbon has some interesting future bets out there with some good odds. These are extreme, and I mean extreme, long shots for sure. Some of the odds though, man, they were hard to pass up.

Rodgers throws 50 or more TDs - risk $20 to win $2,000
Jordy Nelson catches 100 or more catches - risk $1 to win $16
Dez Bryant catches 110 or more - risk $1 to win $12
Brandon Marshall to score 15 or more TDs - Risk $1 to win $5 (this was stupid, don't know why I did this one)
LaSean McCoy to catch 5 or more TDs - risk $2 for $20 (I like this one)
Adrian Peterson to catch 5 or more TDs - risk $5 to win $500 (I like this one)
Andrew Luck to rush for more than 400 yards for the season - risk $2 to win $32 (this is the one that will actually hit, putting me at even)

Rodgers hitting that TD mark would be absolutely sick. Peterson has a new Offensive Coordinator that called played in SD last year where RBs caught 9 TDs - it could happen. Realistically though Andrew Luck is going to hit the 400 yards rushing on the year. He almost hit that last year, at 1:16 yea I like that.

 

[TheKid84]

Preseason is about to begin and man am I excited. It is a bit difficult to determine who will come out on top during the preseason, so I am going to aim for higher scoring games during these first 4 weeks. It's a time for the scrubs to get action, and that can lead to higher point totals. In comparison, in week 1 of last year's preseason, the average point total of games was 39.5 points a game. 5 out of the 16 games scored 31 or fewer points. Lets just hope the 6 games below don't get blow that mark! Lets do this guys!!

arty:

7 Point Teaser (3 Teams) bet 5.00 to win 6.75
Result: Pending
Cleveland Browns
Detroit Lions
08/09/14(19:30 ET) Over 31 (-110)
Houston Texans
Arizona Cardinals
08/09/14(20:30 ET)
Over 30.5 (-110)
New England Patriots
Washington Redskins
08/07/14(19:30 ET)
Over 31 (-110)

7 Point Teaser (3 Teams)
08/05/14 20:29 ET
bet 5.00 to win 6.75
Cincinnati Bengals
Kansas City Chiefs
08/07/14(20:00 ET)
Over 29 (-110)
Pittsburgh Steelers
New York Giants
08/09/14(19:30 ET)
Over 29.5 (-110)
San Francisco 49ers
Baltimore Ravens
08/07/14(19:30 ET)
Over 29 (-110)

 

[TheKid84]

7 Point Teaser (3 Teams) bet 5.00 to win 6.75
Result: Pending
Cleveland Browns
Detroit Lions
08/09/14(19:30 ET) Over 31 (-110)
Houston Texans
Arizona Cardinals
08/09/14(20:30 ET)
Over 30.5 (-110)
New England Patriots
Washington Redskins
08/07/14(19:30 ET)
Over 31 (-110)

Half time report and the Pats/Skins game are at 13 points total. Would love to see a couple of TD's put up on the board in the 3rd quarter. Lets get going!!!

7 Point Teaser (3 Teams)
08/05/14 20:29 ET
bet 5.00 to win 6.75
Cincinnati Bengals
Kansas City Chiefs
08/07/14(20:00 ET)
Over 29 (-110)
Pittsburgh Steelers
New York Giants
08/09/14(19:30 ET)
Over 29.5 (-110)
San Francisco 49ers
Baltimore Ravens
08/07/14(19:30 ET)
Over 29 (-110)

SanFran/Ravens game is sitting at 16 at the half. 2 TD's in the second half would lock that match up.

Cincy/KC game has turned into a defensive TD game. 3 TDs have been scored on defense or special teams. I love it, already locked this match for a win.

LETS GO LETS GO

 

[TheKid84]

Man, last night didn't go well at all. Teams looked like they were still napping in the off season.

Figured I've hit a couple of under 30 games, so hopefully the rest and keep up with the avg and score more than that 30 point mark. Here is a bet placed to help with last night's losses.

7 Point Teaser (3 Teams)
Bet $10.00 to Win $13.50
Buffalo Bills
Carolina Panthers
Over 29.5 - 7:30PM EST

Miami Dolphins
Atlanta Falcons
Over 30 - 7:00PM EST

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jacksonville Jaguars
Over 29- 7:30PM EST

:congrats::congrats::congrats::congrats::congrats::congrats::congrats::congrats::congrats::congrats:

 

[TheKid84]

Man, last night didn't go well at all. Teams looked like they were still napping in the off season.

Figured I've hit a couple of under 30 games, so hopefully the rest and keep up with the avg and score more than that 30 point mark. Here is a bet placed to help with last night's losses.

7 Point Teaser (3 Teams)
Bet $10.00 to Win $13.50
Buffalo Bills
Carolina Panthers
Over 29.5 - 7:30PM EST

Miami Dolphins
Atlanta Falcons
Over 30 - 7:00PM EST

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jacksonville Jaguars
Over 29- 7:30PM EST

Ugh only 10 points at the half in the TB/Jax game... it seems like penalties are killing me big time. They string together some good plays on a drive then make it 3rd and long. Hopefully I can get a INT for a TD or two... Other games are looking OK as if they should make it above that 30 mark.

LETS GO LETS GO!!

 

[TheKid84]

Ugh I am stunned... 20 points in the first half in a dome and they cant seem to score another 10...

This preseason has been very weird. A lot of penalties stalling long drives and missed opportunities. The avg score of these games are below that 30 mark I was anticipating. Might have to take a week off to let them get their feet wet in the game...

Hopefully I can bink the Carbon $100 added CC tourny tonight, we shall see. My BR could sure use it.

 

[OzExorcist]

Had a small loss on preseason week one, lost bets on the Pats and Green Bay (both paying $2.05). But eh it's preseason, stupid stuff's bound to happen.

 

[TheKid84]

Had a small loss on preseason week one, lost bets on the Pats and Green Bay (both paying $2.05). But eh it's preseason, stupid stuff's bound to happen.

Oz! Sorry to hear that man. Yea I'm staying away from the straight up or points added in preseason. There is just no knowing when games dont mean anything. Glad to see ya in the thread.

I will look into some spreads in the next day or so for week 2. I will prob place one $10 bet and see how things happen. Being down a couple of bucks isn't the start I was looking for, but it's a looooong season

Man I can't wait until week 1!!!

 

[TheKid84]

So this is the kind of action I was anticipating from the start. Seems like the teams were just 1 week behind my expectations.

With week 2 of the preseason begin, we've seen 5 games complete with an average score of 55.8! Now I know that's a small sample size and I didn't expect it to be that high of an average, but it's a vast improvement from the 36 average score per game last week. Do I expect this trend to continue? Somewhat, but not to the extreme. I think the mid 40's is pretty reasonable. We were able to see coaches keep their starters in for a longer time and they want to see how they perform. In addition, coaches are testing out scenarios. I saw the Pats use a time out before the end of the first half while the Eagles were close to scoring on them. That lead to an Eagles TD where they could have settled for 3, or maybe 0 points if the Pats didn't do that. The Pats wanted to test their defense in a scenario.

I had placed a bet but was too steaming from a bad beat in the $$ added tournament on Carbon last night for CC. Good thing is I'm 2/3's of the way done on it. With one more game to go to bink that bet, I think I might throw down another one. Here is what I got:

Down $20.00 from week 1

bet 10.00 to win 13.50
Detroit Lions 26
Oakland Raiders 27
Over 31.5 (-110)

Kansas City Chiefs
Carolina Panthers
Over 32 (-110)

San Diego Chargers 14
Seattle Seahawks 41
Over 31.5 (-110)

Here is the other OVERS bet I placed today. Lets hope for 6 TD's per game!

Bet $10.00 to Win $13.50
Baltimore Ravens
Dallas Cowboys
Over 36.5

Green Bay Packers
St. Louis Rams
Over 37

New York Giants
Indianapolis Colts
Over 36

And where is the fun without any $1 shot in the dark parlay huh?

Bet $1.00 to Win $10.00
Arizona Cardinals
Minnesota Vikings
Over 40

Cleveland Browns
Washington Redskins
Over 41.5

Kansas City Chiefs
Carolina Panthers
Over 39.5

Miami Dolphins
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over 38.5


Having a winning week would be absolutely wonderful. Here's hoping for some high scoring games this week!!

:beer::beer::beer::beer::beer:

 

[TheKid84]

Bet $10.00 to Win $13.50
Baltimore Ravens
Dallas Cowboys
Over 36.5

Green Bay Packers
St. Louis Rams
Over 37

New York Giants
Indianapolis Colts
Over 36

Halftime report on the GB/StL game - things were looking great to start off. 3 scores off of 4 drives to start the game and the backups haven't done crap. To top things off, the FG should have been a TD, but a stupid penalty made it come back. Only need 3 TD's for this to work out, and 2 quarters to go. C'mon sloppy defenses!!!

 

[TheKid84]

Bet $10.00 to Win $13.50
Baltimore Ravens
Dallas Cowboys
Over 36.5

Green Bay Packers
St. Louis Rams
Over 37

New York Giants
Indianapolis Colts
Over 36

Settling for a FG over the TD, missing it on 4th and goal, a missed FG, there is 14 points off the board the essentially screwed me on this bet. Thanks STL/GB, you guys suck! :banghead::banghead::banghead:

(ugh I should just stop until the regular season)

 

[TheKid84]

Soooooooo meant to update this with an additional bet I made after my loss today, but got caught up with some kid stuff....

Baltimore Raves
Dallas Cowboys
OVER 36.5

NY Jets
Cincinnati Bengals
OVER 33.5

NY Giants
Indy Colts
OVER 35.5

Bet 10 to win 13.50

The games aren't over, but we can chalk them up as wins! Was a bit of a rage bet, but glad I went through with it. A couple of games indoors and another with bad defenses. Lets just hope the KC/Carolina game goes over the 32 point total tomorrow!

 

[TheKid84]

Baltimore Raves
Dallas Cowboys
OVER 36.5

NY Jets
Cincinnati Bengals
OVER 33.5

NY Giants
Indy Colts
OVER 35.5
Bet 10 to win 13.50 VICTORY!!!!


bet 10.00 to win 13.50 STILL PENDING
Detroit Lions 26
Oakland Raiders 27
Over 31.5 (-110)

Kansas City Chiefs
Carolina Panthers
Over 32 (-110)

San Diego Chargers 14
Seattle Seahawks 41
Over 31.5 (-110)

Bet $10.00 to Win $13.50 LOSS
Baltimore Ravens
Dallas Cowboys
Over 36.5

Green Bay Packers
St. Louis Rams
Over 37

New York Giants
Indianapolis Colts
Over 36

And where is the fun without any $1 shot in the dark parlay huh?

Bet $1.00 to Win $10.00 LOSS
Arizona Cardinals
Minnesota Vikings
Over 40

Cleveland Browns
Washington Redskins
Over 41.5

Kansas City Chiefs
Carolina Panthers
Over 39.5

Miami Dolphins
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over 38.5

Down $20.00 from week 1
Either up $15.00 or down $7.50 from week 2. Lets hope for some money!!!

 

[OzExorcist]

0-3 on preseason after Cinci's loss LOL.

 

[TheKid84]

0-3 on preseason after Cinci's loss LOL.

Are you betting on the teams straight up?? I avoid that in the preseason, these games mean nothing which means teams are taking out their starters by half time at the latest and typically only after about 2-3 possessions. That's too much uncertainty for me to dive into the straight up betting, it's simply a coin flip.

I'm pretty excited, had a better week this week than last. The KC/Car game last night paid me off which is exciting. It looks like I'm only down a total of $4 on Carbon betting on the preseason this year.

I placed a bet yesterday on Bovada, my first one of the season. They allow me to tease 10 points on the total points scored. Obviously its for a little less of a payout, but 10 points is what I love doing, and I figure it is easily obtainable. 2 of my 3 games have won, lets hope for a high scoring affair tonight with Cleveland vs Washington.

Carbon: -$4
Bovada: Even

Bet $25 to win $22.73
Denver Broncos vs. (428) San Francisco 49ers
Over 31 (winner)
(429) Kansas City Chiefs vs. (430) Carolina Panthers
Over 30 (winner)
(431) Cleveland Browns vs. (432) Washington Redskins
Over 31 (pending)

 

[OzExorcist]

Are you betting on the teams straight up?? I avoid that in the preseason, these games mean nothing which means teams are taking out their starters by half time at the latest and typically only after about 2-3 possessions. That's too much uncertainty for me to dive into the straight up betting, it's simply a coin flip.

Two straight up, one on the line. Picking much more on coaching tendencies and squad depth rather than the strength of the starters. LOL preseason

 

[S3mper]

Okay I'm sure this is a very stupid question but...

For futures all teams with the exception of Denver and the Seahawks are +1,000 to win the super bowl

Wouldn't I be able to bet $1 on every team and come up with profit? or $1,000,000 on every team and come up with a profit?

lol

I'm sure I'm missing something

 

[TheKid84]

Two straight up, one on the line. Picking much more on coaching tendencies and squad depth rather than the strength of the starters. LOL preseason

Gotcha. Yea, in my opinion, when you have the 3rd and 4th stringers playing half the game, it doesn't matter what coach you have. TD's can be scored on a dime in garbage time and it is just a coin flip. But, I've been wrong before, as you can see I'll be doing the spreads and straight ups during the regular season, and man can I not wait!

Okay I'm sure this is a very stupid question but...

For futures all teams with the exception of Denver and the Seahawks are +1,000 to win the super bowl

Wouldn't I be able to bet $1 on every team and come up with profit? or $1,000,000 on every team and come up with a profit?

lol

I'm sure I'm missing something

When you see the +1,000 odds like that, the best (and quickest) way to interpret that 1,000 is in pennies. What I mean there is for ever $1 you bet, and the bet wins, you will win 1,000 pennies, or $10. Another quick way is to drop the comma in 1,000 and insert the decimal two places from the right. I've grown used to that method from seeing various odds like +1800, +12000, and so on. What site are you using to reference the rest of the leagues odds?? I wouldn't put much on predicting a superbowl champion preseason, for a lot can happen in a game that requires an entire team over the course of a season to perform great.
If you've got any questions don't hesitate to post here. I don't mind helping in any way at all man. Thanks for checkin in!

Recap Preseason Week 2: Money Money Money!

It's always nice to wake up, log into your account, and see your initial bet back plus your winnings in there. Week 2 served up much nicer to me than week 1. Here is where I stand at the moment.

Carbon: -$4
Bovada: +$22.73
Overall: +18.73

Not a bad start for the preseason. There were some shaky moments, but I'll be looking to continue the money making in week 3. Will post some thoughts on week 3 bets in the next day or so.

 

[S3mper]

I believe it was Carbon that had those odd's however it was before the pre season started

BTW it's not hard to predict who is going to win the super bowl this year

I Guarantee!!! It will be the Steelers!!!

Willing to place a $5 bet @ 21 to 1 any takers? lol

 

[TheKid84]

I believe it was Carbon that had those odd's however it was before the pre season started

BTW it's not hard to predict who is going to win the super bowl this year

I Guarantee!!! It will be the Steelers!!!

Willing to place a $5 bet @ 21 to 1 any takers? lol

Lol oh S3mper, as I do appreciate rooting for your personal home team, one of the first rules is to keep the best emotionless. I love the Colts, and they are my team. I rarely place bets including them because my judgement is clouded.

Unfortunately I don't have means to transfer funds. Otherwise I'd give you those 21 to 1 odds I have little faith in them Steelers winning the big game this year

 

[S3mper]

Last year they started out 0-4 and still (Should) have made the play offs Chiefs screwed them over! They also got very unlucky against the Dolphins stepping out of bounds because the field was snow covered to win the game..

They've improved so much that not only will they win the super bowl they will be the unquestionably undisputed best team in the NFL this year =)

They fired their Offensive line coach and got some youth on the defense.

Antoniou brown will be a top receiver like always.. As long as Ben Roethlisberger doesn't get hurt or accused of rape watch out!

 

[OzExorcist]

Just placed my first bet for the season proper: Indi to win the AFC South, paying $1.67.

Tennessee have gone backwards, Houston are still a mess and Jags are still rebuilding - I figure they're about as much of a lock to win the division as Denver and New England are to win theirs, but they're only paying $1.24 and $1.33 respectively...

 

[we will rock you]

cant wait till betting on football again along with betting on college football

 

[c9h13no3]

I don't think Tenn has gone backwards. Wisenhunt's a legit coach.

Here's my win total bets so far:

NYJ UNDER 7 @ +120
Dal OVER 7.5 @ +110
Buf UNDER 6.5 @ +135
Mia OVER 7.5 @ -105
IND UNDER 9.5 @ -105

Man I wish I had waited a bit on Dallas. Line is moving towards 7 wins pretty hard.