TheKid's Parlay Megathread v2.0

[TheKid84]

Just placed my first bet for the season proper: Indi to win the AFC South, paying $1.67.

Tennessee have gone backwards, Houston are still a mess and Jags are still rebuilding - I figure they're about as much of a lock to win the division as Denver and New England are to win theirs, but they're only paying $1.24 and $1.33 respectively...

I love the Colts Oz!! Welcome back! Yes, Indy is a safe bet to win, as well as Denver and NE. What I don't like about those kinds of bets is that it has your money tied up all season, which blows. But yea, I would say those 3 are safe bets.

cant wait till betting on football again along with betting on college football

I'm not big with college, but I have been known to throw down a $1 parlay on some overs here and there. I will prob have a couple in here. Feel free to stay tuned and share your thoughts when the time comes!

I don't think Tenn has gone backwards. Wisenhunt's a legit coach.

Here's my win total bets so far:

NYJ UNDER 7 @ +120
Dal OVER 7.5 @ +110
Buf UNDER 6.5 @ +135
Mia OVER 7.5 @ -105
IND UNDER 9.5 @ -105

Man I wish I had waited a bit on Dallas. Line is moving towards 7 wins pretty hard.

These are some interesting wagers, I can't say I agree with them all. Good news is - I'm not always right and I can't predict the future!

I like the Dal and Buf bets. IND is my team and I try to not involve them (clouded judgement) but with their weak division I feel they could get that 10 win mark. After viewing their schedule I've got them at 11-5 this year. Remember, they did beat Denver last year, so they can show up (sometimes).

Your bets indicate that the Dolphins are better than the Jets this year. Comparing their schedules, which I haven't really viewed until now, they are horrendous!! They have some tough games ahead of them. The differences are Miami plays BAL and JAX where NYJ play Ten and Pit. I feel that gives Miami the slightly easier schedule, but not by much. I could be wrong, but I think I would have flipped those bets.


I've been eying some lines for week 3's preseason game. High point totals they have for them lined up, which sucks and makes this hard to decide. Will hopefully get some bets place in the next day or so.

 

[kadison728]

I like that andrew luck bet too. I wish Aaron Rodgers would stay healthy enough to throw for 40 touchdowns!! I may just have to get into that bet on Carbon.

 

[TheKid84]

I like that andrew luck bet too. I wish Aaron Rodgers would stay healthy enough to throw for 40 touchdowns!! I may just have to get into that bet on Carbon.

Yea the Luck 400 yards bet I honestly feel has a good chance hitting. The Rodgers TD total is 50, not 40. He is pretty remarkable, and is one of 3 that could put up that 50 mark in my opinion (very long shot obviously).

Bovada is slow as always with their lines. I'm bummed because I'm able to tease 10 points there on the over/under, but not able to on Carbon (only 7). Here is a bet I placed on Carbon for week 3 preseason.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Detroit Lions
Over 37.5 (Dome game, even though it's the Jags, I expect 17-7 halftime score at least)

New Orleans Saints
Indianapolis Colts
Over 40 (Dome game, Drew's first game this season, they're going to want to get some work in with him, 21-14 halftime score is easily obtainable here)

Oakland Raiders
Green Bay Packers
Over 36.5 (Banking on Rodgers getting 2 TD passes by the half, Oak has some depth at the RB and can make some big plays)

Risk $15 to win $20.25

 

[OzExorcist]

I don't think Tenn has gone backwards. Wisenhunt's a legit coach.

True - I'll rephrase, I don't think they've really moved forward much from last season, almost certainly not enough to bridge the gap to Indi at any rate. Am I wrong about that?

Haven't pulled the trigger on any win total bets yet but I'm looking at a few.

I can get Cleveland UNDER 6.5 paying $2.25 (+125 in American if I'm doing it right), and I'm struggling to see where they'd get six wins, let alone seven?

I can buy wins v Oak, v TB and v Hou, they could be a good chance @ Jags as well. But to get to seven they'd probably have to win the home games against Pitt and Bal, as well as one against Cin/NO/Indi, or win another one the road, maybe @ Buf or @ Tenn?

Line on Dallas where I bet has moved the other way, it's now at 8 games (though paying $2.80 / +180 on the over)

 

[OzExorcist]

Washington is another one, though the price isn't quite as good: UNDER 7.5 wins at $1.87 / -115.

To get to eight they'd prob have to win home games v Jac, NYG, Tenn, TB and Dal, on the road @ Hou and Min, and then find at least one more on the road (unless they can upset Seattle or Philly at home).

Struggling to see that happening, particularly with talk that RG3 might not be 100%?

 

[c9h13no3]

True - I'll rephrase, I don't think they've really moved forward much from last season, almost certainly not enough to bridge the gap to Indi at any rate. Am I wrong about that?

The reason I bet the Indy Under is they have many markers for a team that will regress. They were quite lucky last year in almost all of the main categories that you look for regression (wins vs. point differential, fumble luck, ect.), and I think Pagano/Hamilton are pretty bad coaches. They were 0.500 team by Massey-Peabody, and those guys are smarter than you and I.

I can get Cleveland UNDER 6.5 paying $2.25 (+125 in American if I'm doing it right), and I'm struggling to see where they'd get six wins, let alone seven?

I don't even look at schedules when I make win total bets. Teams vary so much in how good they are, it just doesn't move the needle. I take into account 3 things: Coaching, Quarterback, Regression Stats from last year.

Mike Pettine is an excellent defensive coordinator, but he was not on anyone's list for a head coaching job. He only got the gig because he was Cle's 3rd or 4th choice and no one wanted to go there after they fired Chud after 1 year. I doubt he knows how to run an effective organization. I really like Kyle Shanahan, but he's never been a coordinator under a defensive minded coach. So overall, I'd say the coaching probably is going to be lower than average in year 1.

I don't need to convince you that Hoyer/Manziel without Josh Gordon will suck.

And as far as the key stats... they were the 6th worst team by M-P, their pythagorean expectation last year was 5.5 wins, they had moderately bad fumble luck and a -8 turnover margin (but nothing crazy). So they didn't lose a bunch of games to bad luck last year.

So yeah, the under isn't a bad bet.

And in general, unders are the better bet. If you add up all the win totals that are up right now on, say, Bovada, they come out to 262.5 wins. There's only 256 possible wins in a season. So clearly the house is shading things slightly against betting the overs (because squares bet the overs anyways).

Washington is another one, though the price isn't quite as good: UNDER 7.5 wins at $1.87 / -115.

To get to eight they'd prob have to win home games v Jac, NYG, Tenn, TB and Dal, on the road @ Hou and Min, and then find at least one more on the road (unless they can upset Seattle or Philly at home).

Struggling to see that happening, particularly with talk that RG3 might not be 100%?

I wouldn't touch Washington, and if anything I'd bet the over. Their coach quit mid-season, RG3 was coming off injury and may be more like his rookie year than his sophomore effort, Jay Gruden turned Andy Dalton into a top 10 QB, and all the key stats from last year say that Washington got fairly unlucky. If only they had replaced Jim Haslett (who might be the worst coordinator in football), and I'd be betting the over pretty hard.

 

[TheKid84]

All very interesting theories. I will have to come back to this at the end of the season to see how things progressed with Indy. I've got them at 11-5, but yes I'd agree, the folks at M-P are much more wise than us

I wouldn't touch the Wash bet with a 10 foot pole - too much uncertainty all around. The team had a coaching face lift and the teams within the division can get shut out or put up 35 in any given Sunday.

Cleveland is an interesting team this season. The media is going crazy over some rookie back up (which I refuse to mention for I can't stand) but the team hasn't done much to change from last year in my opinion to make any major difference. They'll sneak out an unexpected win or two vs some of their soft opponents they have in their schedule, but I wouldn't expect much. I'd go with the lower, but not the most confident in that bet.

 

[TheKid84]

On Carbon

Jacksonville Jaguars
Detroit Lions
Over 37.5 (Dome game, even though it's the Jags, I expect 17-7 halftime score at least)

New Orleans Saints
Indianapolis Colts
Over 40 (Dome game, Drew's first game this season, they're going to want to get some work in with him, 21-14 halftime score is easily obtainable here)

Oakland Raiders
Green Bay Packers
Over 36.5 (Banking on Rodgers getting 2 TD passes by the half, Oak has some depth at the RB and can make some big plays)

Risk $15 to win $20.25

Man do I love football, and love teasing 10 points. Unfortunately, BOVADA doesn't release all of their lines for the week at the same time, like Carbon does. I love that about Carbon, and Bovada only has tonight's game lines up to parlay. So lets tease 10 points for the hell of it, right?

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions Over 34.5
Oakland Raiders vs. Green Bay Packers Over 34
Chicago Bears vs. Seattle Seahawks Over 35

Risk
US$ 20.00
To Win
US$ 18.18

As you see I like a lot of points in the Jacksonville/Det game as well as Oak/GB. Seattle and Chi I feel like they will want to really test each other out. Plus, the refs are throwing those flags big time. These teams can score with flags in their favor.

LETS GO LETS GO LETS GO!!!

 

[TheKid84]

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions Over 34.5
Oakland Raiders vs. Green Bay Packers Over 34
Chicago Bears vs. Seattle Seahawks Over 35
Risk
US$ 20.00
To Win
US$ 18.18

Jacksonville Jaguars
Detroit Lions
Over 37.5
New Orleans Saints
Indianapolis Colts
Over 40
Oakland Raiders
Green Bay Packers
Over 36.5
Risk $15 to win $20.25

Halftime report: The Det/Jax game is not making me too happy. There was a moment where Det went for it on 4th and 1 inside the 5 yard line, and couldn't convert. Having only 13 total points is not what I was looking for at the half. They need to step it up or I'm kinda screwed.

GB is showing how it is done against Oak. Oak is helping them out as they usually do for the other team in the form of penalties. 29 points and we aren't even at the half yet is what I like to see.

Let's go DET/JAX!!!!

 

[TheKid84]

You wanna know something that will really piss me off??? 27 penalties for 232 total yards in one game. I watched this entire game last night and it was absolutely dreadful. Drives would go about 30-40 yards and get stalled out by penalties or turnovers. Then the Lions screw things up twice within the 5 yard line, once with a turnover and another just by not making it on 4th and 1. If they had put up 2td's there, I make my bets...

The Lions have had a personnel change at the head coach, going from a crazier Schwartz to a more calm collective Jim Caldwell. I didn't think that would effect their scoring ability too terribly much this year, but they have just looked horrible.

Took a decent hit this week, and pretty tilted. May put up one more bet this week, may hold off until week 1 of the regular season. Here is where I stand financially.


Carbon: -$19
Bovada: +$2.73
Overall: -2.73

 

[zjohnzzz]

best of luck kid, i will follow this thread, i wager a little myself :~)

 

[TheKid84]

best of luck kid, i will follow this thread, i wager a little myself :~)

Thanks man. Take my advice and not follow my actions - wait til week 1 where the games actually mean something

I also need to learn not to expect all of my bets to win, so this last week will be a little humble/grounding for me. We've got 17 weeks, lets win some money!

 

[c9h13no3]

Thanks man. Take my advice and not follow my actions - wait til week 1 where the games actually mean something

I also need to learn not to expect all of my bets to win, so this last week will be a little humble/grounding for me. We've got 17 weeks, lets win some money!

Why are you teasing rather than running a straight parlay or just betting individual games? Teases and Parlays are typically sucker bets.

 

[TheKid84]

Why are you teasing rather than running a straight parlay or just betting individual games? Teases and Parlays are typically sucker bets.

I always hear that phrase "Teasers and parlays are sucker bets" and I have come to some conclusions, I just don't know what the answer is.

1 - I'm maybe a sucker? With the regular season approaching, I feel teasing 7-10 points on a spread or over/under allows me to confidently pick a correct outcome. Yes, it's been a bit shaky so far, but I've been betting on preseason. I'll be the first to tell anyone betting on the preseason is silly, but I've got the itch and wont danger my BR before the season begins. Last year I stuck with these bets doing 3 leg sweetheart teasers and would wager a hundred or two on the games. I did fairly well. I'd like to replicate last year and if I do, I will be pretty excited on that.

2 - The suckers are those who say that phrase? Again - I don't know which one is the answer. Maybe they both are? What I do know is a decent amount of the NFL game and allowing that TD or more swing really makes me comfortable in those bets. Obviously there is never anything of a 'lock' in the sports betting world, but I do like my chances

I do venture some random straight up parlays from time to time, only wagering a small amount. I did venture on to Carbon today for tonight's games. Lets see if this pays off.

Parlay (5 Teams) bet 1.00 to win 16.57
Result: Pending

08/23/14(19:00 ET)
Dallas Cowboys +155

08/23/14(21:00 ET)
Denver Broncos -310

08/23/14(20:00 ET)
Kansas City Chiefs -160

08/23/14(20:00 ET)
New Orleans Saints +110

08/23/14(19:00 ET)
Atlanta Falcons -190

 

[c9h13no3]

I'm guessing you probably don't know how to calculate expected value, but typically your EV is going to be higher if you just bet the individual games rather than parlaying them together. If a site offers true odds parlays, then they'll just set their board so that the commonly parlayed teams have terrible odds (hello bodog).

Also, I noticed you're betting a lot of overs. Overs are typically the bad end of the bet. From 1983 to 2008, overs won 48% of the time, unders 49.52% of the time, and the game hit the total exactly 2.48% of the time. Good sports bettors typically don't bet many big favorites, and they don't bet a ton of overs.

Just reading your posts, you have all the hallmarks of a sports bettor that is losing money. It's very difficult to beat the house in sports betting, and it requires mostly fading the public. So far, your bets have been right in line with the public.

 

[TheKid84]

I'm guessing you probably don't know how to calculate expected value, but typically your EV is going to be higher if you just bet the individual games rather than parlaying them together. If a site offers true odds parlays, then they'll just set their board so that the commonly parlayed teams have terrible odds (hello Bodog).

No, I haven't ventured into the technical side of things with sports betting. I targeted the parlays because I feel, with the teasers, I can generally predict the outcome correctly. I have dedicated my Sundays to football in the past and my religion is Fantasy Football. I try to find the match ups and exploit them to what I believe will be winners. Last year, this methodology worked out quite nicely for me. So far, it's just preseason. And much like preseason games, these are just warm ups so far.

Also, I noticed you're betting a lot of overs. Overs are typically the bad end of the bet. From 1983 to 2008, overs won 48% of the time, unders 49.52% of the time, and the game hit the total exactly 2.48% of the time. Good sports bettors typically don't bet many big favorites, and they don't bet a ton of overs.

I addressed this in post 3 of this thread. There's really no point in betting anything else in my opinion in the preseason. Teams switch up their line ups more than women change shoes. Backups to the practice squad can score 2 TD's in a game and become heros. If there is a dome game with the potential to be high scoring or the match up is right during the season, I will tease 10 in my favor for the Over. But the trend of all overs is strictly for the preseason on hand.

Just reading your posts, you have all the hallmarks of a sports bettor that is losing money. It's very difficult to beat the house in sports betting, and it requires mostly fading the public. So far, your bets have been right in line with the public.

This is year 2 of me doing these threads. Last year I cashed out a little over $500, which I was pretty excited with. That included a decent loss in the last week of the season due to some team strategy. I will be looking to replicate those earnings this year and hopefully be able to cash another $500+. I would be pretty pleased with that.


Will you be splashing into the NFL betting scene this year? If so, feel free to post some of the bets you'll be making. I'd love to hear some of the other strategies out there.


For some bookkeeping purposes, here is where I stand with the $1 parlay not hitting last night.

Carbon: -$20
Bovada: +$2.73
Overall: -17.27

 

[TheKid84]

The thought about these teaser bets peaked my interest a bit. I'm pretty anal in the sense that I like to analyze myself a bit - feel free to ask my wife. I scanned through my last year's thread quickly to find the 10/13 point teasers I made and see where I stood after an entire season of betting. Here is what I found for the 10/13 point teaser bets I made.

Bets Won: 17 for +$1138.54
Bets Lost: 8 for -$660
Record of 17-8 for profit of $478.54

It was nice to take a trip down memory lane. Was saved on some last minute heroics by the patriots and was screwed by the browns, but all in all a lot of fun.

One thing I did take from reviewing last year's thread was I noticed a trend on when I would win and lose. I started to run good after week 3 with my major bets and came to an end around week 15. If my winnings are nice again this year, maybe I'll call it a little early and tone things down.

If you haven't noticed, I'm pretty excited for the season to start

 

[S3mper]

Sports betting always reminds me of this movie and it makes me want more and more money!!!

 

[TheKid84]

That is quite the intense trailer there. I would never be able to get to the point where my income is based on the success of my sports betting... Ugh talk about a heart attack.

But yes, the rush is there for me when I bet like it is for him in the movie. Like when he's in the bar yelling at the TV - yea, that's me when my team is losing hahaha

 

[TheKid84]

Ooooooooooh man oh man, the week before the NFL starts. This weeks gets me more excited than Christmas Eve and Thanksgiving combined! My fantasy football teams are still undefeated (but not for long) and the opportunity to win some money on sports bets are on the horizon. Lets see where I'm eying some lines.

On Carbon (because lines aren't out yet on Bovada... grrr), Philly is a 10.5 point fav over an ugly Jacksonville team. I will prob put up a bet teasing 10 points, and I will be swinging those ten points to Philly in this match up, making them a .5 point fav.

New Orleans is only a 3 point fav visiting division rival ATL. I know the injuries ATL suffered to their offense last year, and they are back healthy looking to score. I feel they didn't do enough to that O-line, and fear Matt Ryan will be in the same issues as last year. I like the NO -3 line as is, and will prob tease some points their way. No way NO loses this game.

NE Pats are a -5 fav over division opponent Miami. I'm not sure the last time NE lost a season opener, but Miami is bad and Brady/Belecheck have had a ton of prep time. Same scenario for the Broncos hosting the Colts this week. I don't think that Peyton will be rusty and lose an opener with all the prep time. Those two might be the ones that wrap up my big bet.

Lines I prob wont touch:
GB vs Sea Thurs night game, Sea - 6, O/U 45.5
-Two very good teams, I see Sea winning this but I could envision every scenario playing out. I will stay away from this.
CAR vs TB, TB -1, O/U 39.5
-I feel like I should be throwing money in favor of Car here with their defense and TB's offense not impressive at all, but I just don't know what Car's offense can do. A shaky divisional game... I don't like..

Will post some bets later on in the week. Excited to be back, and ready to win some money!!!

 

[S3mper]

I made myself a funsies bet on my team for... well funsies..

Steelers > Browns @ -6.5 , $11 to win $10.92ish on WPN

If pre season is any indicator on regular season... oops... lol

If the Steelers don't pull it together I will go down to Roonies house and be like "That's it.. I'm the new owner and will get this team back together"

First thing I would do is try to get Bill Cower back as head coach then try to get the offensive coordinator back from the colts...

Why they got rid of him for Todd Haley I will never understand...

 

[TheKid84]

Steelers > Browns @ -6.5 , $11 to win $10.92ish on WPN

Not shabby. I think if PIT can get their offense going, this is obtainable. I def have them winning that's for sure.

 

[pfb8888]

The thought about these teaser bets peaked my interest a bit. I'm pretty anal in the sense that I like to analyze myself a bit - feel free to ask my wife. I scanned through my last year's thread quickly to find the 10/13 point teasers I made and see where I stood after an entire season of betting. Here is what I found for the 10/13 point teaser bets I made.

Bets Won: 17 for +$1138.54
Bets Lost: 8 for -$660
Record of 17-8 for profit of $478.54

It was nice to take a trip down memory lane. Was saved on some last minute heroics by the patriots and was screwed by the browns, but all in all a lot of fun.

One thing I did take from reviewing last year's thread was I noticed a trend on when I would win and lose. I started to run good after week 3 with my major bets and came to an end around week 15. If my winnings are nice again this year, maybe I'll call it a little early and tone things down.

If you haven't noticed, I'm pretty excited for the season to start

nice win rate

any thoughts on using a betting sequence ? d'alembert or double up?

 

[OzExorcist]

MP have released their opening power rankings for the season: prob no surprise that Denver, NO, Seattle and Pats are the top four.

Few I found interesting after that though: they've got Carolina and Dallas fifth and sixth. Jags are still dead last, with Cleveland just in front, but it's still Washington and Tampa rounding out the bottom four.

Not looking to go crazy in Week 1 but a few bets have caught my eye so far, what are people's thoughts on:

MIN +4 (@ StL)
CIN +1.5 (or just SU for about $2.30, @BAL)

 

[TheKid84]

nice win rate

any thoughts on using a betting sequence ? d'alembert or double up?

Honestly? I don't even know what those are I'll have to google them tomorrow night (I'm about to pass out, sorry) and let ya know!

MP have released their opening power rankings for the season: prob no surprise that Denver, NO, Seattle and Pats are the top four.

Few I found interesting after that though: they've got Carolina and Dallas fifth and sixth. Jags are still dead last, with Cleveland just in front, but it's still Washington and Tampa rounding out the bottom four.

Not looking to go crazy in Week 1 but a few bets have caught my eye so far, what are people's thoughts on:

MIN +4 (@ StL)
CIN +1.5 (or just SU for about $2.30, @BAL)

Surprised they have the Pats that high. I just feel like the Pats are declining and there's a bit of a shift in power teams. They're still in a weak division, and I think that is what is really saving their butts these days. If they had a Seattle or San Fran or a really good def in that division, I think they would be screwed.

I'm not sure about the Min bet above. I like the StL def, but they lost their QB. Minn is just sorry all around, aside from AP. It'll be a close game, but I like StL.