What percent of poker is luck?

[Akorps]

Close to zero percent luck, if you use good bankroll management

 

[Fuffufnick]

Frankly I'm shocked that anyone posting here would put a higher value on luck than skill or even rate it near 50/50. If you play perfect basic strategy in blackjack, without counting cards, you are only at a 1.5-3.0% disadvantage depending upon the house rules; making short-term wins quite possible but grinding you down in the long run. So if you believe luck is a greater factor than this in poker, you'd be better off on the Blackjack tables.

 

[Stowie101]

If you're looking at long term success and consistently making money, it's definitely way more skill than luck. I can't put an exact percentage on it, but way more skill than luck.

 

[Akorps]

9 CONSECUTIVE YEARS WINNING STREAK ! Yeah right ! ,

Actually, poker is the easiest game in the world to beat, easier than tic-tac-toe. All you have to do is apply good bankroll management principles (of course, you may have to be satisfied with small wins, depending on your skill level

It must be the gambling mentality that causes 90% of the players to lose. If they believe it is a game of luck, that must be what makes it profitable for the skillful players.

 

[Stowie101]

Easiest game in the world? That's taking it a little far, no? But I do agree, the gambling mentality (impatience) is what hurts a lot of players, including myself.

 

[ezevan1022]

In my opinion over the long hall I would say 70-75 skill and 25-30 luck.

 

[willbec1]

atleast 50%

 

[proffi]

Poker Stats

Depends on how well you know your stats! Here are two examples:

If on the flop you got two hearts and you are holding another two on your hand but a player pushes you to call an all in. Should you call?
The answer is no...In reality there is a 40% chance you will get your flush but the other player has a 60% chance to win the hand. Basic theory has a 50/50 chance, but trailing theory(reality) gives you a 40% chance.

Now lets presume two players are all in, you're the third player. Would you call with 4 hearts on the flop. The answer is yes. Chance now favours you around 12%. So in the long run you make money.

 

[proffi]

Poker has very little luck associated with it...

The luck in poker depends on how many hands you play. say you play an infinite amount of hands...well, if you know statistics the chance of losing drops down to zero.

 

[sonic0691]

There's a quote from Ben Franklin I play by:

"The harder I work the luckier I get."

 

[el_magiciann]

I thinks its more like 60% luck and the other 40% sklills. Thats what i learned from playing at Pokerstars and Fulltilt, the largest online poker sites.

 

[el_magiciann]

You can't tell me its not lucky to win with Q10 vs KK on big tournement table middle phase of the tourney, with 10 of flop 10 turn 10 river, and the next hand to lose with AK vs AJ, J ot turn, and you tell me this is not luck, how can I had 2 bad beats in a row when I play perfect poker and end unlucky at the end. Thats why I am telling you that luck is having place at your game more than 50%. You are going to tell me that can't happen the next time because odds tell us that, then you imagine how my bankroll changes if i lose 2 hands at 109$ buy in tourney like that, or win 10 hands in a row at 2$ tourney???

 

[lilnewtdog]

Your buy ins have to stay the same if you want to give the law of averages a chance and give your self the upper hand. The more hands you play the closer your percentages match the odds.

 

[lilnewtdog]

I heard a story once that a man had a lucky little cricket figuring that was giving to him in the name of luck. This cricket haunted him by making cricket noises all the time. He looked for another cricket somewhere in his house, knowing that this one made no noise. Kept looking and drove him nuts. Finally he realised that the figuring giving to him must be it. He destroyed it with a hammer and has never heard the noise again. lol

 

[helpspb]

Luck is definiely part of poker. On the other hand, your skills always determine how much you lose. I often make wrong call when I lose my patience/temper. But if you're skilled player you can always minimize your losses. JMO

 

[trekmaster]

Wilh the ability of each individuals math and calculating skills being different ,and their abilty to read their oppponets, the range would very greatly from player to player however on my own ratio I would have to judge it at 70% skill and 30% luck.

 

[zegaum]

It is difficult to assign precise values ​​to "luck" or "skill" as it varies over time. But one thing is certain: the more you study and enhances your JGO, the more you realize that being lucky is more relative. You certemente Pedera played many hands of fate of their opponents, but playing with possibilities, you will see that the long term their achievements will be much greater than the setbacks.

 

[vegasjj]

You can't tell me its not lucky to win with Q10 vs KK on big tournement table middle phase of the tourney, with 10 of flop 10 turn 10 river, and the next hand to lose with AK vs AJ, J ot turn, and you tell me this is not luck, how can I had 2 bad beats in a row when I play perfect poker and end unlucky at the end. Thats why I am telling you that luck is having place at your game more than 50%. You are going to tell me that can't happen the next time because odds tell us that, then you imagine how my bankroll changes if i lose 2 hands at 109$ buy in tourney like that, or win 10 hands in a row at 2$ tourney???

I could not agree with you more.

Also add to the above the other dimension: ie you lose (bad beat) very early in the game or at bubble or before FT

 

[guppystew]

I think we can all concede that there is an element of luck in the game. Due to all the different situations involved in hands being played its hard to come up with a specific number for luck. Short stacks, position, payout schedule, and many other variables put people in certain hands that may be questionable but get rewarded. We can all concede that some players don't play by the book and gamble. my .02 cents

 

[lilnewtdog]

Luck is an imaginary word with out existence. . It is a word like cursed, and destiny. There is no hard evidence of its existence.

 

[aircasar9876]

you will never be able to put a percentage on luck in poker...anyone that tries to is just taking a pointless guess. if you wanted to take a lot of luck out because you believe you are an amazing player then play the highest stakes cash tables. at that point, it will mean a lot more to be the most talented player at the table.

People like to say poker is a lot like chess but I think it couldnt be further from it...Bobby Fischer didn't lose tournaments often, if at all.

 

[TNichs]

My grandfather (who taught me how to play) always told me that "Poker is 50% skill, 30% luck, and the rest you just make look like luck"

 

[aa88wildbill]

I think when someone says "you got lucky", there are referring to you beating the odds. In other words you made a bad play and beat the odds. When someone says to you "good luck", they are wishing you well.

 

[josephs333]

I know when Moneymaker won it all, it was more luck and little skill. Man did he get the cards at the end.

 

[topper39]

Guess it's like fifty-fifty in a single hand or tournament, but in the long run nor math neither me believe luck is much relevant factor.