Jblocher1
Legend
Silver Level
Ok... Lets say I have AA... lagtard shoves into me pre... I call... He flips up 24 off suit... Flop... 444. There's nothing I can do about that... It's out of my hands... So is that not considered luck that he won?
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gjpa
Enthusiast
Silver Level
I totally disagree with you dude... Stop believing than skill will make you win always in this game, this can only maximize your chances of winning, not assure you will do it, you are not that pro lol
Logan2
Legend
Silver Level
Time got nothing to do with sample size, a player can play 50k or 500k hands a year and this not mean will be 100% skill just because played over a year.
Ev even out on long run but long run is infinite, so ev could never even out for some that not play millions and millions of hands, in which case never can say will be 100% skill.
Fortmax
Enthusiast
Silver Level
2003 wsop Main Event : Chris Moneymaker vs Phil Ivey
ACE - QUEEN vs Pocket 9
Moneymaker busted Ivey & won the Tournament
2009 WSOP Main Event : Darvin Moon vs Phil Ivey
ACE - QUEEN vs ACE - KING
Moon busted Ivey & got the 2nd Place
Where is the skill ? No matter how good you are or great you are, NOBODY has the CONTROL
of cards that will come to you.
Luck for me is about 75 % to 80 %
Skill for me is about 25 % to 20 %
SKILL is OVERRATED in Poker .:beer:
ACE - QUEEN vs Pocket 9
Moneymaker busted Ivey & won the Tournament
2009 WSOP Main Event : Darvin Moon vs Phil Ivey
ACE - QUEEN vs ACE - KING
Moon busted Ivey & got the 2nd Place
Where is the skill ? No matter how good you are or great you are, NOBODY has the CONTROL
of cards that will come to you.Luck for me is about 75 % to 80 %
Skill for me is about 25 % to 20 %
SKILL is OVERRATED in Poker .:beer:
vegasjj
Legend
Silver Level
I would say that typically - if you are able to make your opponents fold before showdown and you take the pot - that mostly involves a higher degree of skill. You may be able to use the combination of table image, flopped cards, table chat, (in live poker body language) and whatever else to create the illusion of a winning hand. In this case skill is by far the greatest factor - although I still give some credit to luck because the "right conditions" were created to give the opportunity for the "skilled" player to use them.
However - if you going to showdown - really - luck is the boss! Unless you have a Royal or similar hand. Most hands ARE vulnerable to the river card. There may be statistically only 10% chance to lose - but guess what - the cards don't know that - it will be whatever it will be. THAT IS THE LUCK
However - if you going to showdown - really - luck is the boss! Unless you have a Royal or similar hand. Most hands ARE vulnerable to the river card. There may be statistically only 10% chance to lose - but guess what - the cards don't know that - it will be whatever it will be. THAT IS THE LUCK
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baudib1
Legend
Silver Level
Hmmmm....theory gets you to the point where the odds are "in your favor" and given a large enough sample set produces a positive outcome...
..."luck" is what we call that seemingly magical force that gives variance the appearance of always favoring your arsehat of a villain as he repeatedly thrives by making the most outlandish calls and ultimately sends you and your pf all in with pp Aces to the rail "with his favorite hand, 93os" :banghead:
No that's not it at all. When you get all in preflop with AA vs. 93o and win, you don't think of it as being lucky, but you are awarded 100% of the pot when you don't deserve that much. You deserve about 88% of it, and the other guy deserves about 12%. If you get all in preflop with AA vs. 93o for a $1 pot 1 million times, if you win 1 million times, you are very very very lucky. That won't happen, but in the end you will most likely end up with around $876,000 or so and the other guy will deservedly win about $124,000.
This is obviously a hugely advantageous situation, one that you will take every time. Unfortunately in poker, your edges are rarely this large, however, you still have to push those slim edges. Pushing those slim edges repeatedly, over and over, countless times, is what poker is about, and there is essentially zero luck involved in that process.
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lilnewtdog
Rock Star
Silver Level
Exactly,
There is no such thing as luck. Thinks for the example maybe they will understand now.
EvertonGirl
Professional Fish
Loyaler
That is my favourite youtube vid, his reaction makes me laugh every time I see it
Felt bad for Joseph Cheong tho
sam1chips
Visionary
Silver Level
You're right with one part. Skill will not make you win always in this game. Sometimes it is out of your hands, you can do everything right and still lose (ie, all-in pre-flop with AA vs T9 offsuit).
However, continuing to put yourself in these type of situations repeatedly over time, will result in a long-term profit. And that is where the skill part comes in. Being able to know when you are ahead and when you are behind.
If you have the second-best hand and you decide to fold it, that's skill!
EvertonGirl
Professional Fish
Loyaler
I folded JJ post flop when this guy raised with a K on board.
The guy after him just called, when they both got to showdown, I was glad I folded as the guy who called the raise had KK.
That was a good lay down, I knew I was beaten there. I used to be stupid before I studied the game, I would of played that hand wanting to see a J on the next card lol
The guy after him just called, when they both got to showdown, I was glad I folded as the guy who called the raise had KK.
That was a good lay down, I knew I was beaten there. I used to be stupid before I studied the game, I would of played that hand wanting to see a J on the next card lol
edge28
Enthusiast
Silver Level
Poker is a game of skill and results will come in the long run. For a poker player to see it's real accurate winrate at a certain limit he probably needs to put 1 million hands+ under the same conditions. That's more hand than most players do lifetime.
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cleiton1988
Rock Star
Silver Level
I believe that is 70 per cent luck 30 mper cent skills because the time i am playing poker i have seen a lots of things for example three times i cant forget is with AA I HAD LOOSE,and many times i had fold 27 38 and i saw the flop for example 2 K 2 OR 3 Q 3.So the skills are important but you must have plenty of luck.
bullishwwd
Legend
Loyaler
I agree with you even when I get an Ace on TURN and another Ace on RIVER ...
There is certainly this thing called LUCK ... the adjective is sometimes "Good" and sometimes "Bad", but there is LUCK.
In answer to the initial question, I'd say poker, on average, can be ( for a good player) about 80% SKILL and 20% LUCK.
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bullishwwd
Legend
Loyaler
Pareto's Law would say 80% SKILL and 20% LUCK for a good poker player, on average.
Certainly, LUCK is a factor, but SKILL is dominant ... sort of like STACK SIZE and POSITION are "often" dominant to the the HOLE CARDS.
Wally
Certainly, LUCK is a factor, but SKILL is dominant ... sort of like STACK SIZE and POSITION are "often" dominant to the the HOLE CARDS.
Wally
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BigSaxy913
Rising Star
Bronze Level
IMO I think luck is subjective. Yes there's a time where you just get good hands one after the other, however, even AA gets beat, like what, 15-20% of the time I've heard.
To me there isn't really a number, it's how you play your opponents. Exploiting their weaknesses, and making good calls.
There's no number really, it just depends on what comes out and how you deal with it.
To me there isn't really a number, it's how you play your opponents. Exploiting their weaknesses, and making good calls.
There's no number really, it just depends on what comes out and how you deal with it.
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lilnewtdog
Rock Star
Silver Level
Could be a loser and still say that. When your odds are 80% to 20% you lose once every five times (probability, not luck) that's all I'm saying, dude.
sam1chips
Visionary
Silver Level
What are the NFL teams doing right now? Training camp/preseason, practicing to become better. All they can do is practice to become as good as they can be. So that when week one comes, they can maximize their chances of winning.
Of course you can't assure a future event. As long as it is possible for a future event to occur (ie 74 offsuit to beat AA preflop) you can't guarantee anything. All you can do is prepare yourself to win the best you can (in poker, by getting your money in with the best hand).
There are upsets/underdogs in everything. In sports, games, and poker (ie 74 offsuit vs AA preflop). The underdogs are going to win one in a while. That's just a fact. If the possibility for the underdog to win is higher than 0%, then it is going to happen sometimes. Of course the favorite is more likely to win, and if the favorite and the underdog play 100 times, the favorite will almost always win more than 50 times. But in any given game (or hand) it is absolutely possible for the underdog (or worst hand) to win.
loafes
Legend
Silver Level
Initially I thought that poker was 75-80% skill but lately I've changed my opinion on that. Now I think it's about 60% luck vs 40% skill, probably an even bigger luck factor than that. The reason is because there is so much more to the luck than just getting a better hand and getting it good, there are so many factors at play like If I have a big hand will my opponent have a hand that will pay me off or give me some value? will my Aces hold up vs villains 52o is the next card going to be a gin card or is it going to kill my action? plus there are other less mathematical factors involved am I going to get a good seat in the next tournament I play? is mister bigfish going to be at the table when I'm up to doing a session? what if mrbigfish shows up right after I leave the table. what if someone takes a line with a hand they aren't meant to play that somehow losses us value because if he had folded the next guy would have been coolered when the board came out.
Basically there is so much going on that we can't control and it all effects events that I think luck really plays a huge factor in poker. However there is some good news in that even if it were only 10% skill it would still be profitable in the long run provided you get the volume because we all get the same amount of luck and good fortune, when we get that dream spot to make a semi bluff or the hand to cooler the other guy. But good players are able to maximize the winnings when luck goes there way and minimize the losses when things go sour. (though I suppose mister rake would have something to say about 10% skill being profitable )
And to those people that say that in long run it's 100% skill. I say that's just silly because over those 100 trillion gazillion hands you played, luck was a factor in almost every single one of them
Basically there is so much going on that we can't control and it all effects events that I think luck really plays a huge factor in poker. However there is some good news in that even if it were only 10% skill it would still be profitable in the long run provided you get the volume because we all get the same amount of luck and good fortune, when we get that dream spot to make a semi bluff or the hand to cooler the other guy. But good players are able to maximize the winnings when luck goes there way and minimize the losses when things go sour. (though I suppose mister rake would have something to say about 10% skill being profitable
)And to those people that say that in long run it's 100% skill. I say that's just silly because over those 100 trillion gazillion hands you played, luck was a factor in almost every single one of them