$11 NL HE MTT: Can I see this coming or is it just a cooler?

[IADaveMark]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

11

VP$IP

30

PFR

28

Game Options

1. Deep Stacked

Currency

$

Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - 7,000/14,000 (1,750 ante) - 7 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

Zamunda (UTG): 240,726 (17 bb)
essss (MP): 90,809 (6 bb)
O4kaRiK (MP+1): 444,664 (32 bb)
Deas10 (CO): 269,554 (19 bb)
InnocuousFox (BU): 559,202 (40 bb)
JoelBartolome (SB): 194,435 (14 bb)
Arkon10 (BB): 805,596 (58 bb)

Pre-Flop: (33,250) Hero (InnocuousFox) is BTN with 9♣ A♠
2 players fold, O4kaRiK (MP+1) raises to 28,000, 1 fold, InnocuousFox (BU) calls 28,000, 2 players fold

Flop: (89,250) 3♣ 2♥ 9♥ (2 players)
O4kaRiK (MP+1) bets 22,313, InnocuousFox (BU) calls 22,313

Turn: (133,876) 3♠ (2 players)
O4kaRiK (MP+1) bets 100,407, InnocuousFox (BU) calls 100,407

River: (334,690) 8♦ (2 players)
O4kaRiK (MP+1) bets 292,194 (all-in), InnocuousFox (BU) calls 292,194

Total pot: 919,078

Showdown:
O4kaRiK (MP+1) shows K♥ K♠ (two pair, Kings and Threes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 71%, Flop: 79%, Turn: 89%, River: 100%)

InnocuousFox (BU) shows 9♣ A♠ (two pair, Nines and Threes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 29%, Flop: 21%, Turn: 11%, River: 0%)

O4kaRiK (MP+1) wins 919,078

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Seems fine to call here, or you could throw in a light 3-bet and fold to a 4-bet.

Flop
Call is standard, and maybe there is also a case for raising for protection, when he go so small.

Turn
Pretty much a brick. A3s got there, but now there are less combos of 33, and no draws or overcards improved. Cant see any other play than to call again.

River
I am not loving, that he jammed, but I think, you have to close your eyes and call him down. You are very high in your range, there are busted draws, and maybe he could even have a worse hand like K9s or Q9s, that he is jamming for value, or because he dont know what else to do out of position. Unless you have a very strong read, you cant say, that his range consists only of overpairs or boats. If you want to be results oriented, then 3-betting pre and folding to his 4-bet would have allowed you a cheaper way to escape.

 

[puzzlefish]

I feel that when we play against a raise from a MP player, especially without much reads about them, then we need to give their range more respect. I know the open was only 2bb, but when they are firing on all streets and you just have your pair of nines, do you honestly think their range includes a lot of worse pairs and bricked draws? Why make a play for 40bb with a pair of nines? Why would they risk their whole stack and $11 if they don't have something good here?

Maybe I just don't understand how to play poker optimally, but I just tend to pick my spots better than this and maybe why my understanding of getting coolered is different.

 

[fundiver199]

I feel that when we play against a raise from a MP player

The hand history say MP+1, but actually this is a HJ open.

Why would they risk their whole stack and $11 if they don't have something good here?

Because bluffing is part of poker. In a $11 MTT people will bluff more, than they do in micro games, where most players are either maniacs, calling stations or nits, and basically only the maniacs bluff.

Maybe I just don't understand how to play poker optimally, but I just tend to pick my spots better than this and maybe why my understanding of getting coolered is different.

I think, the river is a close spot. If I have HUD-stats showing, that this is a tight player playing something like 15/11 and with a low aggression factor, then I most likely fold. But folding is very exploitable, because what better hands do we even have to call down with after calling on BTN? If we are only calling with sets and 98s, we are way overfolding, and Villain can take all his AK, AQ, AJ, AT, KQ, KJ, QJs, QTs, JTs and turn them into extremely profitable bluffs.

 

[puzzlefish]

Because bluffing is part of poker. In a $11 MTT people will bluff more, than they do in micro games, where most players are either maniacs, calling stations or nits, and basically only the maniacs bluff.

Point taken, although in my experience playing $11 games (which isn't much, but probably a few dozen at least) and even games at higher buy-ins, I still find that players tend to not bluff that much. Maybe you just run into the bluffers way more frequently than I do.

Also, specific to this kind of board, we have an ace and no aces, kings, queens, jacks, or tens are showing up on the board which just makes it that much more likely that those pairs (not aces) are out there rather than someone trying to commit suicide by triple barreling with air.

 

[300HPGOD]

This is an interesting hand since I think we all get in these spots somewhat often. I try to not get too involved with below A10 hands that are Ax due to that if we hit an ace we still dont know where we are at and if we are against a KK-1010 type hand we probably get 1 street of value at the most (player dependent as always but mostly 1 street). I think depending on the player the opening villain is you can fold here and it isnt bad to me. I think opening A9 is fine given the table and certain positions but I am less keen overcalling with it. I think 3 betting is an interesting choice depending on what we know about the villain. Calling can also be fine so to me, I think all options are on the table based on villain and our perceived image.

Flop: Another interesting choice here. folding is out of the question here of course so this is a call or raise. Raising is fine since it a suited board where we can get worse to call and villain did already flick some chips in so maybe they take a flier with some worse hands just to show they dont fold to all raises but I think calling is the best play here. If the board was rainbow I would be even more skewed towards just calling.

Turn: This is the point in the hand where I go hmmm because of the bet sizing. The 3 is a nothing burger imo and villain goes from betting 25% pot on flop to about 75% on turn. Why? Would they bet this small on the flop to give themselves odds to make the flush and then completely 180 and turn their flush draw into a bluff on the turn? Wouldnt they begin their semi bluff on the flop and not the turn? I would think so, meaning I would discount a flush draw here heavily and think more made hand or pure air. This is also a point where we have to think what their opening stats are if we have them or what do we know about what they open. The less we think they are wide opening here then the even narrower it is that they have pure air here. So in the end I would make my mind right here and say Im either folding this now or if I call I am calling every river no matter what it comes. I dont think you can call this turn for this sizing (starting with effective stacks of 32 BBs) and then fold river. Depending on how tight the original opener is I dont think its crazy to fold here. If they arent tight then its more of just a guessing game where I think based on flop and turn bet sizings they have it more often than they dont have it. Tough decision here that I think is closer than people think so in game it would be how I would be feeling about villain and what I have seen from them. I wouldnt bash a call or a fold here.

River: If we got here then you have to call it off. After seeing the sizing on the turn we should already know going to river no matter what card comes up we will very likely see a push from villain.

 

[Poker Orifice]

I don't like the flat pre tbh. For me it really depends on the table in this spot. I don't mind folding 'or' small 3B/f to 4B (but am priced in vs. SB)

 

[fundiver199]

I checked the hand in GTO Wizard, and preflop A9o is the worst offsuit AX, which is defended in this configuration. Its a partial 3-bet and partial call, so both options are "approved", but without HUD-data or other reads folding preflop is to tight. On the flop HJ is supposed to check most of his range, and facing a small bet BTN either call or raise with A9 with raising being the prefered action. When BTN just call on the flop and face a big bet on the turn, A9 is always jammed.

So the only street, where the solver disagree with Heros line, is the turn, where it would always jam rather than call. And I guess the reason for that is, that so many bad cards can come on the river, which justify a jam for protection. So going back to the original question "is this just a cooler", the answer is clearly yes, and it would require some kind of read to not dubble up HJ after calling preflop.

 

[makisaa]

From the betting size of the opponent, it seems he has a strong hand, so I don't think it is a cooler. It would be a cooler for the kings if you got another 9, or an ace!

 

[eetenor]

Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - 7,000/14,000 (1,750 ante) - 7 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

Zamunda (UTG): 240,726 (17 bb)
essss (MP): 90,809 (6 bb)
O4kaRiK (MP+1): 444,664 (32 bb)
Deas10 (CO): 269,554 (19 bb)
InnocuousFox (BU): 559,202 (40 bb)
JoelBartolome (SB): 194,435 (14 bb)
Arkon10 (BB): 805,596 (58 bb)

Pre-Flop: (33,250) Hero (InnocuousFox) is BTN with 9♣ A♠
2 players fold, O4kaRiK (MP+1) raises to 28,000, 1 fold, InnocuousFox (BU) calls 28,000, 2 players fold

Flop: (89,250) 3♣ 2♥ 9♥ (2 players)
O4kaRiK (MP+1) bets 22,313, InnocuousFox (BU) calls 22,313

Turn: (133,876) 3♠ (2 players)
O4kaRiK (MP+1) bets 100,407, InnocuousFox (BU) calls 100,407

River: (334,690) 8♦ (2 players)
O4kaRiK (MP+1) bets 292,194 (all-in), InnocuousFox (BU) calls 292,194

Total pot: 919,078

Showdown:
O4kaRiK (MP+1) shows K♥ K♠ (two pair, Kings and Threes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 71%, Flop: 79%, Turn: 89%, River: 100%)

InnocuousFox (BU) shows 9♣ A♠ (two pair, Nines and Threes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 29%, Flop: 21%, Turn: 11%, River: 0%)

O4kaRiK (MP+1) wins 919,078

I am watching the replayer one step at a time I have not seen the results. Others may have covered this already.

Preflop at 40bb this is a 3 bet fold hand if we flat it is always suited. We 3 bet 2.5x and fold to all 4 bets-flatting means 90% of the time -a 3 way pot- A9off sucks in that spot. BB fold this is good for us.

Flop- Who has range advantage here? If we are behind how easy is it improve? What is the best case scenario for us here? Win it on flop? How? Win it on turn? How? Show down this hand? What worse hands play for stacks here?

V bets 25% are you aware of the fact this is a size that players who study poker would use here with bluffs and strong hands? Bigger bets are made hands like TT JJ 88 and weaker bluffs.
How should we react to that? Our V has semi bluffs with over cards do we want to bloat this pot?
You call that is fine

Turn did anyone improve? V bets big again a play that studied poker players make with strong hands and semi bluffs. So we can assume this player is not a fish therefore how should 88 play the river? missed draws?

V shoves--If V thinks you had a draw what has to shove to get you to fold? What does the V think you called turn with most often for that big bet? That turn bet should get most naked flush draws to fold. Yes V have bluffs here so calling makes sense we would just want to know if the V was capable of bluffing here. Many many players just cannot fire the last barrel so folding here is also fine.

This is why we 3 bet preflop so we do not get stuck in this spot on the river.


River

 

[eetenor]

I checked the hand in GTO Wizard, and preflop A9o is the worst offsuit AX, which is defended in this configuration. Its a partial 3-bet and partial call, so both options are "approved", but without HUD-data or other reads folding preflop is to tight. On the flop HJ is supposed to check most of his range, and facing a small bet BTN either call or raise with A9 with raising being the prefered action. When BTN just call on the flop and face a big bet on the turn, A9 is always jammed.

So the only street, where the solver disagree with Heros line, is the turn, where it would always jam rather than call. And I guess the reason for that is, that so many bad cards can come on the river, which justify a jam for protection. So going back to the original question "is this just a cooler", the answer is clearly yes, and it would require some kind of read to not dubble up HJ after calling preflop.

The cool thing about studying GTO is how differently our actions need to be when our V do not take GTO lines--which we should be expecting vs standard V---- even studied V do not play into the streets perfectly GTO which would change our line completely post flop from GTO Equilibrium which is what you are referring too above.

Combine that with us not playing perfectly post flop HU or going three way with weak AX hands not great either and we can lean to 3 bet folding to 4 this hand 100% preflop and be plus EV.