$11 NL HE MTT: Didn't hit the flop, is it worth going to the river?

[Vallet]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

11

Currency

$

The Bosci Daily Double $15, 000 GTD. It's been a couple of weeks since I came across this hand in the hand history folder. I don't remember why I decided to call two streets in a row. The player on the big blind was betting 1/3 approximately. Surely he would have bet more if his stack was larger. Maybe the flop gave him a low pair or a draw. River gave me confidence.
Do you think it is necessary to call and expect that the opponent will show an ace for the showdown?

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/?hand=7q2nOwdz

 

[300HPGOD]

I almost dont like seeing the result because to me, when villain makes that small of a bet on the flop with 2 to a suit on the board I dont put them on Ax. I put them on 6x, 5x, maybe 87, or some diamond draw. Depending on the villains tendencies, call frequencies, etc. I think I would highly consider raising here as you can get them to fold all those hands I mentioned maybe minus the diamond draw which we know would not be a K high draw as we have the K of diamonds. Even if they were to call, you could plan to double barrel and get folds. The villain starting the hand with only 20 BBs is not ideal to do this but I just dont think they have a lot of Ax here that would bet that small with diamond draws and a straight draw. Our range is perceived wide coming from the button with an open but that works to our advantage here as we could have those 87 hands and even some 6x and 5x so I just dont see an Ax betting this small on this board texture. Game would change quite a bit if we make the flop even A64 rainbow instead of A65 two diamonds but on this board I just dont see a lot of Ax by villain. This lead could be even a post oak bluff of sorts thinking you are super wide and would just give up without any Ace in your hand.

As played going to the turn, Id still be thinking the same that Ax just isnt playing this way minus an occasional small Ax but still just don't see it so if I was to just call flop I would probably just call here as well but there are two flush draws out there which would make me think even more Ax would not go this small and give the odds to you. We are giving the odds to them to draw which I dont like but would not raise at this point due to the SPR getting smaller and smaller.

On the river, I think you can go one of two ways. First is either go small as you did trying to get a crying call or I think we can also try to make our bet look like a bluff with a missed draw that did not come in. In game (of course depends on villain type) I think I like pausing for some time with my decision when it is on me and jamming. This might make some curious enough to call with 6x or 5x thinking you are on a bluff. It might even get more calls, even though it is counter-intuitive, then going small here as villain thinks small bets are valuey while large bets are polar so maybe 6x really is good some of the time and they have put in roughly 1/3rd of their stack up to this point. I dont think your bet sizing is wrong by any means but I kind of like trying to make it look like a bluff. Hopefully others will chime in on what they think on river bet sizing.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Definitely a standard open.

Flop
Small donk bets are often a weak hand "trying to find out, where it is" or setting its own price to draw. However when he is this short, we dont have much room to try to barrel him off. And for that reason I would also just call. Folding would be way to tight. You have backdoor straight and flushdraws, you have two overcards to second and third pair, and you might have the best hand already with the second nut nothing, if he is on some sort of draw.

Turn
Now you have second pair and beat anything but top pair or monsters. You face another small bet, and I dont see any reason to do anything other than call.

River
You backed into trips, which is of course an amazing runout for you, but unfortunately now he check. I think, 300HPGOD nailed it. Take a small pause to make it look like, you are considering your options, and then move all-in to make it look like, you have a busted draw and is trying to steal the pot. With that being said you are mainly targeting AX here, and I dont think, he folded that. So against his actual holding, your sizing hardly made any difference. He most likely had a busted draw and decided to give up. Or maybe once in a while a 6.

 

[feisas7991]

as played either bet small or put him all in on the river. no half pot bets here you neither captuing value from ace nor bottom pairs
hope this helps and Good Luck!

 

[Vallet]

I caught myself thinking, what if such small bets are a good protection. This could allow the opponent to see the next streets cheaper during the hand. But if he has an ace in his pocket, then a big bet would not be called. Any raise I made would mean that the board suited me.