Stu_Ungar
Legend
Silver Level
First range
Fish 10% {TT-66, AQ, AJs-A2s, KQs, QJs}
Scenario 1 A high rainbow As 4d 7h
Here the villain has
Set 4%
Top pair 48%
Underpair 24%
BD FD 34.7%
C-bets have to work 33-47% of the time depending on size. So this is close and probably not worth c-betting. He often has an ace or a pair. If he calls (which he will do a lot) we just wont know what to do unless he peels with air a large % of the time.
Secnario 2 K high rainbow Ks 4d 7h
Set 3.4%
Top pair 3.4%
Underpair 20.5%
Third pair 10.2%
A high 54.5%
BD flush draw 40.9%
Here c-betting looks good. He almost never has the king. His range is weighted towards pairs or A-high. He may peel and pick up a FD on the turn. This is useful to know as the presence of a flush card may justify him sticking around on the turn.
Scenario 3 K high wet = {Ks Jh 9d}
Set 3.4%
TP 3.4%
Second pair 6.9%
Third pair 10.3%
Low pair 20.7%
Straight 0%
4 out Straight Draw 36.8&
BD FD 40.2%
Basically this flop doesn’t hit him at all. He does pick up a draw 36.8% of the time and a flush card coming on the turn may account for him sticking around or getting aggressive if that added to his straight draw. C-bet
Scenario 4 A high wet = {As Jh 9d}
Set 4.1%
2 pair 5.4%
Top pair 48.6%
Second pair 4.1%
Third pair 8.1%
4 out straight 5.4%
BD FD 33.8%
The interesting thing here is how low his straight draw possibilities are. You are basically facing a made hand (Ax) or nothing, with a few 2 pairs thrown in.
Oddly enough I wouldn’t c-bet this.
If we have the best hand then its not worth raising. We aren’t giving up much by letting him draw anyway.
Scenario 5 K high wet = {Ks Jh 9d}
Set=3.4%
TP =3.4%
Second pair =6.9%
Third pair =10.3%
Low pair = 27.7%
Ace high =55.2%
4 out straight =36.8%
BD flush = 40.2
C-bet for sure. He often holds A-high so if he peels flops with A high, then this is a good flop to charge him on. He has a Gunshot about 1/3 of the time and will be picking up a FD on the turn 40% of the time.
Scenario 6 A high two tone unconnected = {As Jh 7h}
Set = 4.1%
Trips= 5.4%
TP = 48.6%
SP=4.1%
3P=24.3%
LP = 8.1%
4 Out straight draw = 5.4%
Weak 2 card FD 1.4%
Nut FD 12.2%
This is another odd one. I would have assumed that this flop would hit him in terms of FD’s however He has a FD only 12% of the time. The bigger danger is him having A-High. This means he is likely to be charging hands if he has it. C-bet and he will often be raising, so its not worth C-betting.
Scenario 7 K high two tone unconnected = {Ks Jh 7h}
Set = 3.4%
TP = 3.4%
SP= 6.9%
3P=24.1%
LP=6.9%
A High = 55.2%
4 SD = 23%
Weak FD = 1.1%
Nut FD = 10.3%
BD FD =13.8%
C-bet. His range is weighted towards Aces so Kings are only a small portion of it. He could easily be peeling with A high. FD’s again are lower than expected yet higher than when the high card is an Ace.
Scenario 8 Low dry = {9s 7h 3c}
Set = 7.1%
OP= 7.1%
TP = 3.5%
UP =7.1%
SP= 3.5%
3P=10.6%
A high= 51.8%
BD FD = 42.4%
Overcards =37.6%
A large portion of his range here are Over cards. He has a higher than usual chance of having a set. A high is still a big part of his holdings. I really wouldn’t C-bet this simply because he is very likely to peel and if he does lots of cards look scary. We wont know where we are so I don’t think it should be c-bet.
Scenario 9 Low connected = {9s 7h 6c}
Set 11%
OP 7.3%
TP 3.7%
UP 7.3%
SP 3.7%
3P 3.7%
AHigh 53.7%
4 out SD 17.1
8 out 12.2%
BD FD 43.9%
Overcards 39%
I wouldn’t bet this.
He has almost a 20% chance of SD combined with an almost 40% chance of picking up a FD and 39% of his current holdings are over cards. I would be more inclined to check/fold or check and bet the turn as long as no cards come completing his draws or over cards come which could shut me down.
Scenario 10 Low Connected and suited = {9s 7h 6h}
Flush 12%
Set 11%
Op 7.3%
TP 3.7%
UP 7.3%
£pair 3.7%
Ahigh 43.9%
4 out SD 14.6%
8 out SD 11%
Weak 1 card FD 11%
Overcards 39%
I don’t like c-betting this unless the villain is very weak. He has so many draws or hands that do well on this board that if he calls we are just in a terrible spot and OOP.
If he calls then it really doesn’t matter what we have we are done with the hand. So I see no point in c-betting.
Scenario 11 Monotone high = {Ks Js 9s}
Flush 10%
TP 3.4%
SP 6.9%
tP 10.3%
LP 20.7%
AHIGH 44.8%
4 out straight draw 35%
Weak 1 card FD 17.2%
Nut 1 card flush draw 3.4%
This isn’t a bad flopp to c-bet.
10.3% of the time he has a flush. 1/3 of the time he has a GS straight draw, but the rest of the time he dosnt have a hand he will go broke on.
Scenario 12 Monotone low = {8s 5s 3s}
Flush 11.4%
Set=3.4%
OP 13.6%
TP 3.4%
UP 13.6%
SP 3.4%
3P 3.4%
AHigh 40.9%
4 out SD 6.8%
Weak 1 card FD 17%
Overcards 40.9%
I would c-bet this.
He has a made flush 10% of the time, but it’s a scary board and the vast majority of his holdings do not look good on this board.
Scenario 13 Monotone middle highly connected = {8s 6s 5s}
Flush 11.8%
Set 7.1%
OP 14.1%
TP 3.5%
UP 7.1%
2P = 3.5%
3P 3.5%
Ahigh 42.4%
4 out ST 14.1%
8 out SD 10.6%
Weak 1 card Fd 14.1%
Overcards 42%
Im not so keen on c-betting this pot because of the increase in straight draws he has. Other than that its pretty much the same as the last example. But now he has more reasons to peel. In the previous example I was c-betting with the hope of winning there and then, and perhaps occasionally fire again on the turn, however I’m not so keen with the additional straight draws he has.
Scenario 14 X with high paired {Ks Ts Th}
4 of a kind 1.2%
Trips 2.3%
TP 3.5%
3P 3.5%
A high 60.5%
4 out SD 23.3%
8 out SD 4.7%
Weak FD 1.2%
Nut 2 card FD 11.6%
BD FD 14%
The most striking thing about this is his relative lack of FD’s. He has more GS’s than FD’s. C-bet this for sure. He is likely to be chasing SD’s or FD’s however if non come in and you are faced with a large river raise, there really isn’t much he can have other than a monster. Knowing this I still feel it’s a pot to get involved with as the monsters are incredibly unlikely.
Scenario 15 X with middle paired {9s 7c 7d}
4 of a kind 1.2%
FH 3.6%
Trips 3.4%
OP 7.2%
TP 3.6%
UP 7.2%
3P 7.2%
AHigh 57.8%
BD FD 43.4%
Overcards 38.6%
C-bet. There are some monsters out there but most of the time he has A high. Even if he peels a lot, you would probably be good here to fire a second barrel.
Scenario 16 X with low paired {5s 3c 3h}
Trips 2.2%
OP 33%
TP 3.3%
A high 52.7
4 0ut Sd 8.8%
BD flush 39.6
OC 52.7%
C-bet. He almost never has anything in his range he wants to play here. He may well peel he has tons of Overcards and A High hands. This really don’t hit him at all.
----------------------------------------------
That took ages!!!
Feel free to suggest different courses of action. Its just my interpretation of the data rather than a definative way of playing each scenario.
Fish 10% {TT-66, AQ, AJs-A2s, KQs, QJs}
Scenario 1 A high rainbow As 4d 7h
Here the villain has
Set 4%
Top pair 48%
Underpair 24%
BD FD 34.7%
C-bets have to work 33-47% of the time depending on size. So this is close and probably not worth c-betting. He often has an ace or a pair. If he calls (which he will do a lot) we just wont know what to do unless he peels with air a large % of the time.
Secnario 2 K high rainbow Ks 4d 7h
Set 3.4%
Top pair 3.4%
Underpair 20.5%
Third pair 10.2%
A high 54.5%
BD flush draw 40.9%
Here c-betting looks good. He almost never has the king. His range is weighted towards pairs or A-high. He may peel and pick up a FD on the turn. This is useful to know as the presence of a flush card may justify him sticking around on the turn.
Scenario 3 K high wet = {Ks Jh 9d}
Set 3.4%
TP 3.4%
Second pair 6.9%
Third pair 10.3%
Low pair 20.7%
Straight 0%
4 out Straight Draw 36.8&
BD FD 40.2%
Basically this flop doesn’t hit him at all. He does pick up a draw 36.8% of the time and a flush card coming on the turn may account for him sticking around or getting aggressive if that added to his straight draw. C-bet
Scenario 4 A high wet = {As Jh 9d}
Set 4.1%
2 pair 5.4%
Top pair 48.6%
Second pair 4.1%
Third pair 8.1%
4 out straight 5.4%
BD FD 33.8%
The interesting thing here is how low his straight draw possibilities are. You are basically facing a made hand (Ax) or nothing, with a few 2 pairs thrown in.
Oddly enough I wouldn’t c-bet this.
If we have the best hand then its not worth raising. We aren’t giving up much by letting him draw anyway.
Scenario 5 K high wet = {Ks Jh 9d}
Set=3.4%
TP =3.4%
Second pair =6.9%
Third pair =10.3%
Low pair = 27.7%
Ace high =55.2%
4 out straight =36.8%
BD flush = 40.2
C-bet for sure. He often holds A-high so if he peels flops with A high, then this is a good flop to charge him on. He has a Gunshot about 1/3 of the time and will be picking up a FD on the turn 40% of the time.
Scenario 6 A high two tone unconnected = {As Jh 7h}
Set = 4.1%
Trips= 5.4%
TP = 48.6%
SP=4.1%
3P=24.3%
LP = 8.1%
4 Out straight draw = 5.4%
Weak 2 card FD 1.4%
Nut FD 12.2%
This is another odd one. I would have assumed that this flop would hit him in terms of FD’s however He has a FD only 12% of the time. The bigger danger is him having A-High. This means he is likely to be charging hands if he has it. C-bet and he will often be raising, so its not worth C-betting.
Scenario 7 K high two tone unconnected = {Ks Jh 7h}
Set = 3.4%
TP = 3.4%
SP= 6.9%
3P=24.1%
LP=6.9%
A High = 55.2%
4 SD = 23%
Weak FD = 1.1%
Nut FD = 10.3%
BD FD =13.8%
C-bet. His range is weighted towards Aces so Kings are only a small portion of it. He could easily be peeling with A high. FD’s again are lower than expected yet higher than when the high card is an Ace.
Scenario 8 Low dry = {9s 7h 3c}
Set = 7.1%
OP= 7.1%
TP = 3.5%
UP =7.1%
SP= 3.5%
3P=10.6%
A high= 51.8%
BD FD = 42.4%
Overcards =37.6%
A large portion of his range here are Over cards. He has a higher than usual chance of having a set. A high is still a big part of his holdings. I really wouldn’t C-bet this simply because he is very likely to peel and if he does lots of cards look scary. We wont know where we are so I don’t think it should be c-bet.
Scenario 9 Low connected = {9s 7h 6c}
Set 11%
OP 7.3%
TP 3.7%
UP 7.3%
SP 3.7%
3P 3.7%
AHigh 53.7%
4 out SD 17.1
8 out 12.2%
BD FD 43.9%
Overcards 39%
I wouldn’t bet this.
He has almost a 20% chance of SD combined with an almost 40% chance of picking up a FD and 39% of his current holdings are over cards. I would be more inclined to check/fold or check and bet the turn as long as no cards come completing his draws or over cards come which could shut me down.
Scenario 10 Low Connected and suited = {9s 7h 6h}
Flush 12%
Set 11%
Op 7.3%
TP 3.7%
UP 7.3%
£pair 3.7%
Ahigh 43.9%
4 out SD 14.6%
8 out SD 11%
Weak 1 card FD 11%
Overcards 39%
I don’t like c-betting this unless the villain is very weak. He has so many draws or hands that do well on this board that if he calls we are just in a terrible spot and OOP.
If he calls then it really doesn’t matter what we have we are done with the hand. So I see no point in c-betting.
Scenario 11 Monotone high = {Ks Js 9s}
Flush 10%
TP 3.4%
SP 6.9%
tP 10.3%
LP 20.7%
AHIGH 44.8%
4 out straight draw 35%
Weak 1 card FD 17.2%
Nut 1 card flush draw 3.4%
This isn’t a bad flopp to c-bet.
10.3% of the time he has a flush. 1/3 of the time he has a GS straight draw, but the rest of the time he dosnt have a hand he will go broke on.
Scenario 12 Monotone low = {8s 5s 3s}
Flush 11.4%
Set=3.4%
OP 13.6%
TP 3.4%
UP 13.6%
SP 3.4%
3P 3.4%
AHigh 40.9%
4 out SD 6.8%
Weak 1 card FD 17%
Overcards 40.9%
I would c-bet this.
He has a made flush 10% of the time, but it’s a scary board and the vast majority of his holdings do not look good on this board.
Scenario 13 Monotone middle highly connected = {8s 6s 5s}
Flush 11.8%
Set 7.1%
OP 14.1%
TP 3.5%
UP 7.1%
2P = 3.5%
3P 3.5%
Ahigh 42.4%
4 out ST 14.1%
8 out SD 10.6%
Weak 1 card Fd 14.1%
Overcards 42%
Im not so keen on c-betting this pot because of the increase in straight draws he has. Other than that its pretty much the same as the last example. But now he has more reasons to peel. In the previous example I was c-betting with the hope of winning there and then, and perhaps occasionally fire again on the turn, however I’m not so keen with the additional straight draws he has.
Scenario 14 X with high paired {Ks Ts Th}
4 of a kind 1.2%
Trips 2.3%
TP 3.5%
3P 3.5%
A high 60.5%
4 out SD 23.3%
8 out SD 4.7%
Weak FD 1.2%
Nut 2 card FD 11.6%
BD FD 14%
The most striking thing about this is his relative lack of FD’s. He has more GS’s than FD’s. C-bet this for sure. He is likely to be chasing SD’s or FD’s however if non come in and you are faced with a large river raise, there really isn’t much he can have other than a monster. Knowing this I still feel it’s a pot to get involved with as the monsters are incredibly unlikely.
Scenario 15 X with middle paired {9s 7c 7d}
4 of a kind 1.2%
FH 3.6%
Trips 3.4%
OP 7.2%
TP 3.6%
UP 7.2%
3P 7.2%
AHigh 57.8%
BD FD 43.4%
Overcards 38.6%
C-bet. There are some monsters out there but most of the time he has A high. Even if he peels a lot, you would probably be good here to fire a second barrel.
Scenario 16 X with low paired {5s 3c 3h}
Trips 2.2%
OP 33%
TP 3.3%
A high 52.7
4 0ut Sd 8.8%
BD flush 39.6
OC 52.7%
C-bet. He almost never has anything in his range he wants to play here. He may well peel he has tons of Overcards and A High hands. This really don’t hit him at all.
----------------------------------------------
That took ages!!!
Feel free to suggest different courses of action. Its just my interpretation of the data rather than a definative way of playing each scenario.
