When Is It Time To Play Loose/Make Coinflips?

[tohos]

Dgi you make some good points that I agree with and you explain them way better than I could. One thing I would like to point out is all of the flip examples you have given that you will be taking looks to me like +EV flips rather than flipping say any PP just to double up early. All in with AK/JJ/QQ looks pretty standard and not taking these spots would be just nitty play and not that you are avoiding flips?..

It seems to me that your perception of 'not flipping' seem to be to just bleed chips away to blinds? Just saying thats how it seems like to me because I find that you are ahead often enough in these spots to not consider them 'flips' and you are pretty confident that most of the time they are at worst a flip. It is not like stacking off say 77 because you think maybe villain has AK and just want to flip to double up where it will be often at best a flip. I think it is a very important difference whether a hand is at best a flip or at worst a flip.

I assumed you would be flipping 77/88 type of hands if you read your villain has 2 overs from your previous posts but seeing that all the examples you have given are AK/JJ/QQ types, I'm wondering whether you do flip with middle or low pocket pairs. Its just a question to satisfy my curiousity. I don't believe it is a bad play, I just don't consider the minor edge worth it against worse players but yea wondering whether you take these flips.

Also another good point with the win rate/hr. It is definitely important for grinders and pros to spend their time efficiently. I haven't given it much thought because it didn't affect me that much when I just started to learn more about tournament poker since the time I 'wasted' was still a learning experience and I can't say I have played enough tournaments since to notice it(I was lucky enough to get deep often during the 'learning period' and school started soon after that ><). However now that I have school and need to study since everyone here studies like mad(Asians) , I might try to do things your way a few times and see how things work out haha.

 

[Nylan]

hmm, If your in the bubble, and you go for the final, you can make coin flips then.(much blinds steals if the other players are playing for a minimum prize)

 

[4evertilted]

So many variables to this question. And main thing is you have to be willing to get it all in there and sometimes it will be a coin flip unless you have AA or KK you most likely in a coin flip. AK vrs pairs below KK are flips and all except AA and KK are flips or worst 21%.

Many times you think you might think you are in a flip and either you are 80% favorite or dog. Most cases it is a 70%-%30.

I prefer not to shove preflop with JJ or below or A-Q or below unless short stacked.

How many times have you lost with PP, QQ or below on the river vrs AK with a preflop shove? to many to count for me. I would much rather see a flop and hope to see no A or K then get all those chips in!

 

[MTCashman]

On the bubble! Everyone is so afraid to make a move there! Play for first place not for a minimum cash

 

[dgiharris]

....I assumed you would be flipping 77/88 type of hands if you read your villain has 2 overs from your previous posts but seeing that all the examples you have given are AK/JJ/QQ types, I'm wondering whether you do flip with middle or low pocket pairs.

I used a lot of JJ/AK hand examples because a lot of tournament players actually consider JJ/AK and even QQ a "flip" and the favorable +EV examples I crafted are what I consider TYPICAL examples that most players regard as "flips" even though in reality they are +EV spots. Since tournament players see everything in black and white, live or die, they tend to think of those spots as flips discounted the dead money. That is, a lot of tournament players don't even account for dead money but rather see the spot in terms of winning or losing and hence 50/50 (if that makes any sense).

But to answer your question, if I was confident that an aggro was shoving with two overs I would be fine calling him with 88+

The reason I don't call with 22-77 is because of the board pairing twice and killing my pair if it is too low. I know, that is a small % chance but 88 is where I draw my line for flipping. I also like to draw that line because on "some" occasion players will call a shove with 22+ confident that it is we who have overs (AK/AQ) and thus our range of 88+ dominates their range of 22+

I had this exact thing happen to me in yesterday's tournament. Round 3, blinds were 100/200 stacks were at 9k. I had 99 in the BB. Aggro raised 800 from LP, CO called, BTN called, SB called, I shoved for 9K. LP tank folded, CO and BTN folded, SB said, "What do you got, AK????" and after a minute he calls.

Board Q 5 3 J J (CO villain slammed his fist on the table on the flop, he folded AQ )
SB had 77, I win with 99. As I'm stacking his chips he's giving me a poker lesson about how stupid my shove was and how I got lucky no one didn't have AA/KK

Unfortunately, I lost two big hands next round. I had KK in SB, V opens really big, 2 callers, I 3-bet shove and got snap called by AK and JJ (villains that folded to me when I shoved 99) but unfortunately a J hit the flop. Yuck, back to chip average. Then one orbit later I got QQ raised and was called. Flop hit J T 3, I bet, V raises, I shove he calls. V had KJ, and of course another J binks on the river and now I'm crippled. Then two orbits later I get KK go all-in and get called by AJ and board runs out T 8 9 7 6r FML

funny how the Jack seemed to be my kryptonite this tournament. Strange how that happens, the poker gods have a sense of humor...

Also, I want to note that because I shoved that 99 hand earlier my KK shove got plenty of action. I win that hand and I would have been close to tournament leader at round 3 and then I would have steam rolled my table and been on cruise control all the way to the final table. Ugghhh!!!!!! But hey, that's poker. There is a $1k tourney this weekend and I'm gonna take that bad boy down!!!!

 

[dgiharris]

...
It seems to me that your perception of 'not flipping' seem to be to just bleed chips away to blinds? Just saying thats how it seems like to me because I find that you are ahead often enough in these spots to not consider them 'flips' and you are pretty confident that most of the time they are at worst a flip. It is not like stacking off say 77 because you think maybe villain has AK and just want to flip to double up where it will be often at best a flip. I think it is a very important difference whether a hand is at best a flip or at worst a flip. ..

I wanted to address this specifically. A lot of tournament players just don't make that distinction. They see everything in terms of black and white, win or lose, live or die.

They don't take dead money into account when making their "tournament life" decisions if its early in the tournament. They simply think, "Its too early to flip" and by "flip" they mean ANY situation where they are NOT an overwhelming 70/30 or better favorite.

And this is a big leak. Instead of thinking "this is a +EV spot because of the dead money and possible fold equity I will have if I shove..." they think, "its too early and blinds are too low to shove or call this shove so I'll just wait for a better spot"

I see this every single tournament I play. And the table always nods their heads in agreement reaffirming the "conventional wisdom".

 

[tohos]

I see dgi. In that case, I think in that case my way of thinking of pretty in line with yours.

I agree with your 99 play. I'd do the same with so much dead money. You'd be in a shitty position in a 5 way pot oop with this type of hand. 88 is the bottom range for me as well.

What would you do if you were the CO with AQ? I would fold in disgust since there is still 2 behind me ><. But I would call often if I were last to act, espcially with so much dead money.

Would you have shoved if you were SB? Or facing the same shove do you call here? I would maybe shove depending on HJ/CO/BTN tendencies. But facing the same shove I would fold since we're likely to be dominated quite often.

Yea its so disgusting when you do everything right and get sucked out with premium pairs. ><

Agree with the part about conventional wisdom. I personally don't know what is the conventional wisdom since I didn't read any books. Whatever I know I learnt from proven winning players or through experience. On this note, I would like to advise new or inexperienced players to take every advice with a grain of salt. They may be old advice that no longer works, are specific to some situations, or may just be plain wrong.

Dgi you can take my questions to pm if you want. I think I might derail the thread with all the hand discussion.

Good luck in your 1k tourney

 

[dgiharris]

...
What would you do if you were the CO with AQ? I would fold in disgust since there is still 2 behind me ><. But I would call often if I were last to act, espcially with so much dead money....

If I were the CO with AQ and an aggro raises from LP I'd 3-bet him since AQ is going to be ahead of his raising range and we can retake the initiative which will set us up to be aggressive post flop.

If for some reason I did flat the raise with AQ and then the BB shoved for stacks, I'd be forced to fold AQ due to the Gap Concept.

Gap concept states it takes a better hand to call a raise than it does to make the raise. A shove from the BB in a typical donkament in this spot is going to be QQ+/AK majority of the time and that crushes our AQ...

Agree with the part about conventional wisdom. I personally don't know what is the conventional wisdom since I didn't read any books. ...

I strongly advise you to get some books and read them. You should be reading a minimum of 2 books per year. I know a lot of the noobs nowadays pride themselves on NOT reading books and are quick to say that everything is outdated because poker has evolved...

Not true. Fundamentals are still fundamentals. Theory is still theory and logic is still logic. You may read some things you disagree with but overall reading poker books gets you to open your mind and expand your knowledge base. Plus, there are some decent books out there that specifically focus on online tournament poker.

Anyways, there should be plenty of threads around here on what books are worth getting. My advice is that you read up. I heard the book "Kill Everyone" is supposed to be good. That is next up on my reading list...

 

[solly cholly]

I luv tight/flip adverse playas in tourneys. This argument/discussion can really be applied to 4 books that have a lot more tit for tat points than can be written here. The 1st is "Harrington on holdem 1 and 2 " , the strategies therein worked very well up to about 2009, and will still provide a small roi if u play it very very well. Then the game changed with massive fields and some different math. The 2nd is "the Poker Tournament Formula 1 and 2". The author of this and his minions got into a pretty heated argument on 2+2 with Malmuth , who was defending HOH strategy. Very entertaining thread on its own. "Kill Everyone" falls more inline with the PTFs. I have read all 5 of these books at least 15 times. Yes 15 each, and I will read them again, there is that much info there.

 

[zveri666]

Imo, you want to "flip" as early as possible when you are confident your range is ahead of your villains.

The sooner you get chips, the better you will do in the tournament.

As far as how that ties into your overall image and style...

You could write a book answering that question...

I disagree with flipping as early as possible. In my opinion, its best to flip when you are either way ahead in chips then your opponent or when you are short stacked ( under 15 BB).

 

[bernotas22]

I disagree with flipping as early as possible. In my opinion, its best to flip when you are either way ahead in chips then your opponent or when you are short stacked ( under 15 BB).

i actually think flipping early is good cause every fish is thirsty to double up, but generally don't want to unless you got QQ,KK,AA though you really don't want to do it with QQ unless you got a read, but yes flipping with a deep stack is very very stupid

 

[luciano allyson]

I start well thigt get looser during itermediaria

 

[JustDestined]

You guys have some excellent theories. I guess it all comes down to personal preference and what you are most comfortable with, or possibly combinations of many depending on the specific players.

 

[Swickster007]

The time when I play loose and go for a coin flip is generally when I'm at the point in a tournament where my stack is about 5-10 bbs with an ante that is dwindling it down. Now this doesn't mean I play loose every time I am in that situation, but I generally loosen up a bit and you'll see some shoves that are a little out of the ordinary lol

 

[BearPlay]

Wow, look at the ruckus you started, bernotas


+1 to randee et al.

The problem with early flips is that tournament chips are not of equal value, and the chips that you lose (in unnecessary flips, for example) are almost always going to be worth a lot more than the chips you may win. This is one of the fundamental differences between ring game play and tournament play which many people overlook. Whereas a weak call in a ring game can be resolved by buying back in, you cannot say the same when a bad call/flip in a tournament cripples you, often to the point of non-recovery, when the best solution, especially in the early stages of a tournament, would be to avoid the battle in the first place.

 

[SANDYHOOKER KY]

Well, i'm not going to argue over early flips, i have played in thousands of tournaments, and i have made mental notes of how many "early flippers" got big stacks, and made it to the bubble. It is an EXTREMELY small number. You can jump on a site, watch every table you can handle, note the big stacks before mid way, then note who made it to the bubble. Do that for a day, then see what you have. I can't say any percentage with reasonable accuracy, but i'm guessing it would be around 5% or less. I hope someone does take a "poll" on this, i'm interested too in what the results would be. I agree with you on one point though, you MUST take a few plunges, a player that doesn't take a few flips almost never wins a tournament. And near the bubble, even the lag players tighten up, it seems every one gets religion near the bubble, and there is the place to get rowdy, you can reel in some serious chips in that window with out having to "flip". I would prefer to take my "flips" just after midway through the field, when the majority of the players are either short or averaged stacked, and they are almost forced to play marginal hands themselves, or i get in a situation where there is just me and villain in a pot and villain is noted to push with little to nothing holdings. I may lacking in my observations and off the mark, but dam near every big stack early in a tournament that i played in almost invariably went out before the bubble .

 

[BigJamo]

If you get a bet beat (because your trying to chip up) & end up with 177 chips left, then doubling up is all you can do. I ended up on the final table & went out in 5th by another bad beat.

 

[doamartian]

a bit before the bubble

Most tend to play tight closer to bubble to get itm. I hit a new record of four unaswered shoves in a row, it put me up quite a bit. I say flipping around the bubble before and after is best maybe a blind level or two on either side of the bubble.