Boring SnG hand, AJo 5 handed vs big UTG push

[Irexes]

I've seen the results, but I'd still fold unless there were exceptional circumstances.

The exceptional circumstances would be that his range included 2 cards less than a Jack and would require plenty of evidence he was a nut. Your stack seems short in terms of M but there is still plenty of room for manouever. His push is an odd move as the 225 he stands to win uncontested isn't going to change his chances of winning the SnG much but if called it's very likely he's behind.

That said his range contains lots of low pairs AQ and KQ even KJ. If you call all ins with AJ you are going to bust at best 40% of the time (that's being generous, I suspect it's worse). So the question is does the reward justify the risk? If you double up you have 3900ish chips and are probably going to make the money more often than notas UTG is now crippled and you will be second stack. It also probably increases your chances of 1st and second. However I don't think it's worth busting 4 times out of 10 to do so, so I'd fold.

Right the above is the battlefield maths I'd do during a game, I've now stuck it in the mighty Pokerstove and given him a pretty broad range, any pair (except AA and KK I'll assume he's raising smaller), any Ax and KQ and even KJ.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 57.4060 % 53.34% 04.06% { AJo }
Hand 2: 42.5940 % 38.53% 04.06% { QQ-22, A2s+, KJs+, A2o+, KJo+ }

You are still busting 42% of the time here with this generous range, add in AA and KK and take out KJ and the very small aces and it gets worse.

I've stopped calling all ins (except in the exceptional circumstances above) even with AQ with this kind of stack at this point in SnGs, AJ is nice to open with at this point but once you lose the vig I think it's a long term hole to be calling allin with it for your life.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Hmm, I neglected to put the numbers into PStove, and thought on the face of it I was a larger favourite against that exact range. I think, as I similarly posted elsewhere recently that we can take the (in my opinion) small possiblity he has AA/KK and counter it with the small possibility he has two random cards outside the range, and treat the equity%s exactly as presented.

With a stack of 1.2k or less, I think this is a call. With a stack of 3.5k or more, I think it's a call - any arguments here? This hand falls into the awkward middle ground where I am bang in the middle between 'having to make a move very soon' and 'having the stack to be able to afford to take a shot'.

I think on reflection (I certainly wasn't thinking this at the time) the decision also hinges on something neither I nor anyone else in the thread has touched on - the table dynamics. If the table is 'standard' - ie. weak-tight as we approach the bubble, it may well be sensible to fold and continue to solely play pots as the initial aggressor (I don't consider myself to quite be at the push/fold stage yet, but after paying another round I will be). If there are still a few calling stations around (this being a $11 every now and then you still get people who will call pushes with stuff like Q8s on the bubble), this may be the best shot I will have at building a decent stack, and so the call becomes more understandable.

I guess what I'm saying is I don't know. ^^

 

[Irexes]

I agree with the AA and KK equalling the likelihood of any 2 others, its a good way to look at it.

My SnG strategy is largely based on getting my chips in first at this point. I'm sure we all subscribe to the notion of gap theory, but for me (in SnGs at least) there is a huuuuuuuge gulf between the hole cards I'm happy to push with and those I'm happy to call. I'm hyper aggressive with the initiative (once the blinds get a touch bigger than here I'm pretty much pushing anything pretty), but I want that fold equity when I do it.

If I push AJ in this situation and got a caller I'm not happy about it so I'm even less inclined to be on the other end of it when I'd basically be hoping for a coinflip.

Totally agree that playing at this point of a SnG is determined by the feel of the table though