Trusting Your Instincts

xdeucesx

xdeucesx

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This is so much different than folding KK pre.

Its pretty easy to check in HEM, go to advanced filters, select KK and filter = allin preflop and see how much you make. If its a + figure then you are making money doing it.

thank you somebody other than ben agrees w/me


and getting to 10nl isnt a huge deal, did you grind it all through cash? or did you cash some big tournies? (I know thats your specialty right john?)
 
tusabes

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Gut feeling, instinct, intuition... call it whatever you like, it's all based on facts. Hand reading is as much logic as it's intuition.

And you have to combine stats and intuition to be able to make the correct calls most of the times. You can't, as someone said before me, simply ignore facts. You have to take the whole picture into account. If the "gut" tells you something isn't right with your reasoning, you probably know it on an intuitive level, but just can't quite surround it with sound logic. This is where, IMO, the best plays come into action. Most of the time it will be 3rd or 4th level thinking, though. So no worries for now :D


This is the best answer and it was on the first page. Before everyone got hung up on the cards op was holding, dogmeat stated what all poker players know. The past influences your gut/instincts/intuition. We know the feeling we get before we make a bad decision. When we are playing our best we're recognizing repeating situations that created negative results and we're able to exit.

That's the beauty of the cash game Clark. We have an infinite number of hands to choose from. I'm way more likely to fold good cards in a cash game due to being uncomfortable with how the hand is playing out. In treating a lifetime of poker as "one long session" this current hand doesn't matter so forgetaboutit and move on. A bet saved is a bet won right? If another player is preventing me from playing my game and executing my plan I will just choose another table/site.

Definitely trust your instincts!
 
JohnBoyWWFC

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I'm not bragging about getting to 10NL in a month, I'm asking if that makes a difference.

Started at $15 and up to $250, $150 of that coming from cash, the rest from tourneys. And yes, Tournies are my speciality, if you can call it that. I'm not good at cash, I'll happily admit that, I just can't understand why there's never a situation why you can never fold KK pre. Sometimes villlain has AA so surely there are some times where it's the right fold. If you can find those times, it's profitable. Of course, it's not going to show in Hem, because you've probably put a fair few BBs in before you fold, I'm rarely folding pre without putting any money in.

Sad thing is, this thread was intended as a general thread about some thoughts I had and instead it's turned into a thread about "Never fold KK pre, you donk"
 
tenbob

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If I show a profit by never folding KK pre-flop then you will as well. When you fold after putting lots of money in then its complete spew. You will become extremly exploitable as you move up in stakes. Of course sometimes your fold will be correct, but you do not play against a specific hand in poker, you play against a range of hands. Even against an extremly tight range of QQ+/AK you are burning money every time you fold, and occasionally even a solid player will go into bluff mode with 87s or something random.

Summary : Putting lots of money in, and then folding is bad. Having discussions about this sort of stuff is great.
 
JohnBoyWWFC

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Like I said, I'll take this into account. It irritates me a lot, when i say to myself, I'm sure he has AA and then ship my KK anyway and bam, he has AA.
 
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If you're sure he has AA fking fold FFS.
 
xdeucesx

xdeucesx

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i didn't mean that as "your a donk bc you binked a tourny, not won in cash" or anything like that johnny (personally, I was jw)

following your "gut instinct" isnt correct, what is correct is always making the mathematically sound choice and that would be to never fold KK Preflop in 99.99999% of situations
I know that sounds boring and too standard of an answer, but you can't be wrong if your choice is mathematically correct
 
xdeucesx

xdeucesx

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and sorry wsop, didnt mean to leave you out bro, same goes for you
 
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As you play more hands your gut will evolve and you will learn to trust it.
 
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Look, I think OP has a decent point. Folding KK pre is going to be incorrect almost all the time. At 2NL/10NL vs. an unknown who may be terrible or overplaying some crap hand or a smaller pair, you should pretty much go broke all the time. There are plenty of times I had a feeling I should fold KK, pushed anyway and they flip QQ or AK or something worse. There are tons of situations where I am stacking a lot worse than KK.

I've only folded KK pre once online over the course of hundreds of thousands of hands and I was right. In live games I folded it twice, don't know if I was right one time, the other time he had KK and couldn't possibly have anything worse.

That said...

A lot of people play AA and KK exactly the same way and that can't possibly be correct. I have to say if someone opens UTG I have KK on BTN and 3-bet and FX cold 4-bets from the SB with 150 BB effective stacks, I am pretty much instafolding and feeling pretty damn good about it.

KK is a healthy favorite over a nutted range of QQ+/AK: 57%
AA vs. the same range is 84%

KK vs. KK+: 22%

After having run KK into AA countless times, not to mention postflop situations where you stack overpairs vs. sets or 2 pair vs. the nuts, you do develop a sense of when you are likely beat.

 
JohnBoyWWFC

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full tilt poker No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 60/120 Blinds (9 handed) - Full Tilt Poker Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com

Button (t4856)
Hero (SB) (t3008)
BB (t14580)
UTG (t10076)
UTG+1 (t3630)
MP1 (t3341)
MP2 (t4977)
MP3 (t6840)
CO (t3780)

Hero's M: 16.71

Preflop: Hero is SB with K
diamond.gif
, K
spade.gif

UTG bets t360, 5 folds, Button raises to t840, Hero raises to t3008 (All-In), 2 folds, Button calls t2168

Flop: (t6496) 2
spade.gif
, 6
spade.gif
, 6
heart.gif
(2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t6496) 7
diamond.gif
(2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t6496) 10
spade.gif
(2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t6496

Results:
Button had A
heart.gif
, A
spade.gif
(two pair, Aces and sixes).
Hero had K
diamond.gif
, K
spade.gif
(two pair, Kings and sixes).
Outcome: Button won t6496
 
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