*** January's Juxtaposed Pokahz Chat ***

[BelgoSuisse]

Feels good to be the one sucking out for a change.

MP2: $53.60 (53.6 bb)
MP3: $113.10 (113.1 bb)
CO: $156.50 (156.5 bb)
BTN: $98.50 (98.5 bb)
SB: $123.55 (123.6 bb)
Hero (BB): $100 (100 bb)
UTG+1: $77.65 (77.7 bb)
UTG+2: $32.35 (32.4 bb)
MP1: $18.50 (18.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with 2

2

3 folds, MP2 raises to $3, MP3 calls $3, 3 folds, Hero calls $2

Flop: ($9.50) 2

Q

K

(3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks

Turn: ($9.50) T

(3 players)
Hero bets $7, MP2 raises to $14, MP3 calls $14, Hero raises to $97 and is all-in, MP2 calls $36.60 and is all-in, MP3 calls $83

River: ($254.10) K

(3 players, 2 are all-in)

Results: $254.10 pot ($3.00 rake)
Hero showed 2

2

(a full house, Twos full of Kings) and won $251.10 ($151.10 net)
MP2 showed J

A

(a straight, Ten to Ace) and lost (-$53.60 net)
MP3 showed A

Q

(two pairs, Kings and Queens) and lost (-$100 net)

BTW, I think HEM does not compute All-in EV properly for 3way pots. It says I sucked out for $197.29 while since i was way ahead of the big stack for the side pot, i believe my suckout was only a bit less than $150.

And with that, I'm back to break even in All-in luck for 2009. arty:

Edit: also, second biggest pot ever for me.

 

[eNTy]

Happy Belgo
did you go wiiiiiiiii ?

 

[blankoblanco]

Feels good to be the one sucking out for a change.

BTW, I think HEM does not compute All-in EV properly for 3way pots. It says I sucked out for $197.29 while since i was way ahead of the big stack for the side pot, i believe my suckout was only a bit less than $150.

And with that, I'm back to break even in All-in luck for 2009. arty:

Edit: also, second biggest pot ever for me.

nh!

and yeah, i believe others have asked the HEM creator before and he said it doesn't correctly compute all-in EV for multiway pots. apparently he hasn't been able to fix it? i dunno

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Feels good to be the one sucking out for a change.

MP3 is my new all time hero

 

[BelgoSuisse]

MP3 is my new all time hero

but they were sooooted...

And he did take his time to decide on the river call.

 

[F Paulsson]

Biggest losing day ever for me. On one table, I'm down 5 buy-ins to a huge fish playing in godmode. Sheesh.

 

[Chris_TC]

Biggest losing day ever for me. On one table, I'm down 5 buy-ins to a huge fish playing in godmode. Sheesh.

What's gonna be even funner is this: he will insta-sitout once you take about 50-100BB off his stack.

 

[zachvac]

wow, that's sick. Didn't you use to have flop cbet% below 50% just a few months ago? 85.9% is really high, and you do get a ton of respect, sir.

I think 2 points. First off all the regs have my stats as something like 11/9 with ~60% cbet over a huge sample. Second off though I'm minraising my buttons and most people enjoy calling those but folding to cbets postflop if they don't improve. I'm hoping it's more the latter than the former because if it's the former I'm going to have to change it soon.

 

[F Paulsson]

What's gonna be even funner is this: he will insta-sitout once you take about 50-100BB off his stack.

I don't think you quite understand the meaning of god mode. He does not lose.

I'm not the only one who's down to him, by the way, he's sitting with 11 buyins at a Party 200NL 6M table. Pretty sick.

 

[switch0723]

6 exams in 10 days starting tomorrow, gg poker for a while

 

[Jagsti]

Hey, has anyone got any thoughts on SNE. I mean, for instance, I imagine the amount of players going for SNE will double this year. Therefore the more grinders playing, just passing money around to each other. Stars having to pay out more in SNE stuff (yeah I know that they will be earning even more) but were's all the money coming in from to subsidise all the SNE players and the continuing profit of stars? Are there more fish actually depositing to Stars? I actually thought the 'poker boom' was slowing down if you like, with less fish!

If the fish don't deposit more, then won't that have the affect of winrates just gradually decreasing, because it's getting infected with SNE's and milestone grinders. I know it only a small proportion of players, but they make up a decent proportion of hands played I imagine.

 

[eNTy]

Why no club ?
Playing 50nl cause I'm bored.

party poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

MP3: $28.49 (57 bb)
CO: $65.42 (130.8 bb)
BTN: $10.34 (20.7 bb)
SB: $52.19 (104.4 bb)
BB: $45.89 (91.8 bb)
Hero (UTG+2): $69.64 (139.3 bb)
MP1: $12.07 (24.1 bb)
MP2: $13.99 (28 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is UTG+2 with Q

Q

Hero raises to $2, 2 folds, MP3 calls $2, 4 folds

Flop: ($4.75) Q

5

9

(2 players)
Hero bets $3.25, MP3 calls $3.25

Turn: ($11.25) Q

(2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 checks

River: ($11.25) 5

(2 players)
Hero bets $6, MP3 calls $6

Results: $23.25 pot ($1.66 rake)
Hero showed Q

Q

(four of a kind, Queens) and won $21.59 ($10.34 net)
MP3 mucked A

8

(two pairs, Queens and Fives) and lost (-$11.25 net)

 

[Jagsti]

6 exams in 10 days starting tomorrow, gg poker for a while

6 exams = revise the night before = you have 4 nights for poker LDO!

 

[eNTy]

Outplayed or spew ?
He tanked on flop and folded.

MP1: $14.92 (29.8 bb)
MP2: $8.50 (17 bb)
MP3: $114.19 (228.4 bb)
CO: $50.27 (100.5 bb)
BTN: $50 (100 bb)
SB: $9.50 (19 bb)
BB: $78.41 (156.8 bb)
UTG: $36.02 (72 bb)
UTG+1: $55.37 (110.7 bb)
Hero (UTG+2): $51.30 (102.6 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is UTG+2 with 2

2

2 folds, Hero calls $0.50, 3 folds, CO calls $0.50, BTN raises to $3.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $3, CO folds

Flop: ($8.25) 9

K

3

(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $5.88, Hero raises to $11.76, BTN folds

Results: $20.01 pot ($1.50 rake)
Hero mucked 2

2

(a pair of Twos) and won $18.51 ($9.13 net)

 

[zachvac]

Hey, has anyone got any thoughts on SNE. I mean, for instance, I imagine the amount of players going for SNE will double this year. Therefore the more grinders playing, just passing money around to each other. Stars having to pay out more in SNE stuff (yeah I know that they will be earning even more) but were's all the money coming in from to subsidise all the SNE players and the continuing profit of stars? Are there more fish actually depositing to Stars? I actually thought the 'poker boom' was slowing down if you like, with less fish!

If the fish don't deposit more, then won't that have the affect of winrates just gradually decreasing, because it's getting infected with SNE's and milestone grinders. I know it only a small proportion of players, but they make up a decent proportion of hands played I imagine.

1. Grinders can be very bad. Example:

http://www.pokertableratings.com/overview/wojtaspolak

2. There is no shortage of fish. I semi-sweated bw a bit playing 400nl FR last night and there were plenty of fish there. Over on 2+2 there was talk of a super-fishy 1knl table. There are still plenty of fish, and many of the regs are basically fish and always play the same way turning their hands face up.

Win-rates have been decreasing since the original UIGEA passed awhile ago and the poker boom has been coming to an end. People see the amazing amount of money you can make playing poker and naturally are drawn to it. It's pretty simple economics that over the long-term there will become an equilibrium where people are paid what the effort is worth. Currently I think the pay for sitting around playing a game on a computer is amazingly high. It's going to go down. Whether it's still enough to make a living in 5-10 years is the biggest question. I don't see games dying in the next year or two unless the recession gets worse and fish just flat out don't have money anymore. Let alone sne being the thing that kills it.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

6 exams in 10 days starting tomorrow, gg poker for a while

what exams are they?

 

[eNTy]

Well that was a fun session.
Lost a buy in early: raised from sb w/ AK vs a guy who called my other steals and a 60 vpip. Cbet A high flop. He calls like I expected, I potbet the turn, call, 3/4 bet the river. Call. He turns over A3 for the rivered 2 pair .

Then in the end I won a stack with rivered boat > rivered trips with A kicker. So instead of being up a buy in and ending down a buy in like usually it's the other way around.

Yey underolled hit 'n run pokahz.

 

[blankoblanco]

1. Grinders can be very bad. Example:

http://www.pokertableratings.com/overview/wojtaspolak

2. There is no shortage of fish. I semi-sweated bw a bit playing 400nl FR last night and there were plenty of fish there. Over on 2+2 there was talk of a super-fishy 1knl table. There are still plenty of fish, and many of the regs are basically fish and always play the same way turning their hands face up.

Win-rates have been decreasing since the original UIGEA passed awhile ago and the poker boom has been coming to an end. People see the amazing amount of money you can make playing poker and naturally are drawn to it. It's pretty simple economics that over the long-term there will become an equilibrium where people are paid what the effort is worth. Currently I think the pay for sitting around playing a game on a computer is amazingly high. It's going to go down. Whether it's still enough to make a living in 5-10 years is the biggest question. I don't see games dying in the next year or two unless the recession gets worse and fish just flat out don't have money anymore. Let alone sne being the thing that kills it.

also, donkaments. donkaments are amazing (essential, probably) for the poker economy when you think about it

 

[The Shrog]

Let's hear it from all the Eagles fans!!

 

[switch0723]

what exams are they?

Discrete Maths, Cryptography, Computer Languages, Programming, Computers + compting and computers + society (I have no idea whatsoever what the last two exams are about, so i suppose thats 2 that don't need revising)

 

[BelgoSuisse]

Wow. I guess i overestimated my fold equity against this guy...

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with Q

K

2 folds, MP1 calls $1, MP2 calls $1, MP3 folds, CO calls $1, 2 folds, Hero raises to $6.50, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $5.50, CO folds

Flop: ($15.50) J

3

T

(2 players)
Hero bets $10, MP2 raises to $20, Hero raises to $93.50 and is all-in, MP2 calls $73.50

Turn: ($202.50) 8

(2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: ($202.50) 7

(2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results: $202.50 pot ($3 rake)
Hero showed Q

K

(high card King) and lost (-$100 net)
MP2 showed K

A

(high card Ace) and won $199.50 ($99.50 net)

 

[eNTy]

Don't you just hate it when the rng teases you with straightcards like that

 

[bubbasbestbabe]

Care for some of my mojo?

 

[BelgoSuisse]

Wow. I guess i overestimated my fold equity against this guy...

Didn't have reads then, have some hands on him now.

Villain is a fish in god mode. He plays 51/0/2, WTSD at 50% and W$SD also at 50%. Up 2 buy-ins.

 

[feitr]

I iz awesome at da pokaz:

View attachment 16389
View attachment 16388

Seriously, how is it possible to lose at this level when I'm playing 18.27/12.98/2.91-- wtf, too loose?

At nl25 you can steal an absolutely ridiculous amount, coz i'm pretty sure there are so many awful nits who just can't ever play back at you. Move steal% up to 40 or so, and your preflop stats will become more ideal.

Iirc, i was actually a WINNER from the sb in 100nl 6max, and mainly from incredibly exploitable stealing (and i'm sure i ran good in SD pots, since it is hard to get a "large" sample for the sb), but the players suck so bad they can't exploit you properly. Just pick on the nits/bad tags.

1. Grinders can be very bad. Example:

http://www.pokertableratings.com/overview/wojtaspolak

2. There is no shortage of fish. I semi-sweated bw a bit playing 400nl FR last night and there were plenty of fish there. Over on 2+2 there was talk of a super-fishy 1knl table. There are still plenty of fish, and many of the regs are basically fish and always play the same way turning their hands face up.

Win-rates have been decreasing since the original UIGEA passed awhile ago and the poker boom has been coming to an end. People see the amazing amount of money you can make playing poker and naturally are drawn to it. It's pretty simple economics that over the long-term there will become an equilibrium where people are paid what the effort is worth. Currently I think the pay for sitting around playing a game on a computer is amazingly high. It's going to go down. Whether it's still enough to make a living in 5-10 years is the biggest question. I don't see games dying in the next year or two unless the recession gets worse and fish just flat out don't have money anymore. Let alone sne being the thing that kills it.

Is it just me or are the games getting more active? I don't play on stars anymore but sometiems i check traffic and it is sometimes >200k and i never remember seeing it over 180k beforehand. I doubt the games will die out all that fast. In 10 years, yes it will be very interesting and depend on alot of factors.

Even if UIGEA passes i doubt it will die on stars/tilt. There are alot of non-USA players there who could still deposit, and even if the US fish/mediocre players leave, you will probably find that if that occurs, some of the good non-USA population will leave for fishy euro sites, which will reestablish a new equilibriuum.

The levels might keep getting harder as you move up (like i could see 1knl becoming super tough in the next few years, since it does require some decent dough to play that badly and constantly) but levels like 1/2 and 2/4 will probably always have some very poor players who are willing to dump money to the regs. There will always be recreational players who are willing to dump 1k into low/mid levels.

I'm pretty confident that one could maintain a win rate of $200/hr playing a mixture of 1/2 and 2/4 and i doubt that will change anytime soon, although i don't really like the "future" of higher stakes games on FT/stars.