Am I paranoid of raises??

if i raise preflop from 3rd position with AQs, get one caller, flop is Q2K two hearts, I bet half the pot, get raised, am I always beat here?
how often do you see the "call raise with any two cards, raise flop when sucker bets" move?
i mean, I feel I'm getting outplayed on one hand, and outdrawn on the other so I can never win. or even cash.
Help me before I go on a murderous rampage killing all penguins in the entire city of townsville!

There is a lot of info missing to really give you any kind of answer i.e. stakes, blind levels, STT or MTT, stacks, RR size, RR players stats or tendencies etc.etc.

So w/o that, its hard to say. Is the RR from a solid TAG? Does he see you as a weak player likely to fold to a RR? Is it from a LAG who sees fold equity in a RR? etc.....

Have you been limping a lot so far? Raising much and from where? Why are you being RR here by this particular player? How does he see you?

Do you have any fold equity if you shove here?

And so on. Before you raise PF, you should try to consider who is to follow, and have a plan what you will do in every scenario. You need to consider how the table sees you and what ranges they are putting you on. And what ranges they are reacting with. And are you playing micro stakes, cause maybe you are not even being put on a range at all.


One more thing: When you get called, think about who is calling you and why. Then make a plan before you raise this flop. You dont want to raise and not know what to do... ya get me? You want to know "If I raise and he RR, I shove here" or "If I raise and he RR I fold here" -- in that case 1/3 pot is fine, if relative stacks allow a fold here. Or is he a LAG who could be RR with say 44-TT, and any FD, then you may want to smooth call, again stack dependent. Also against a caller on this flop, a C/R may be the best play........... etc.............

Sorry to be so vague, but its all so situational, and a standard answer is not possible here.

to give some more info:
$5.50 rebuy tourney

I'd been raising very rarely. doubled up twice, so I tried to play some regular poker. here's the hand that led to my eventual downfall...
Hand Information
300/600 BB (10 handed).
Hand History converter courtesy of pokerhandreplays.com

Table Information
Seat: 0 smuck22 ($5450) Big Blind
Seat: 1 rankin35 ($7660)
Seat: 2 studboogy ($7925)
Seat: 3 adjustar ($10070)
Seat: 4 mustdefend ($8595)
Seat: 5 cruncher ($6590)
Seat: 6 betht60 ($8300)
Seat: 7 arcelas ($6650)
Seat: 8 lambchop32 ($240) Dealer
Seat: 9 underdog94 ($8785) Small Blind
Dealt to arcelas
[image: http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/images/poker_image/QD.png]

Preflop (Pot:450)
rankin35 FOLD
studboogy FOLD
adjustar FOLD
mustdefend FOLD
cruncher FOLD
betht60 CALL $300
arcelas RAISE $900
lambchop32 FOLD
underdog94 FOLD
smuck22 FOLD
betht60 CALL $600

Flop(Pot: $2250)
[image: http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/images/poker_image/QH.png] [image: http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/images/poker_image/8S.png] [image: http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/images/poker_image/KH.png]

betht60 CHECK
arcelas BET $1200
betht60 RAISE $5068.49
arcelas FOLD
betht60 RETURN $3868.49
Showdown:
betht60 MUCKS

betht60 wins the pot: $8518.49
a few things that makes it likely I was beat are:
this player was one of the more solid players at the table. however, she had only showndown 2 hands in the last several rounds. they were both AA. I had folded to several allin re-raises earlier, so that info makes it more likely it was a move. if it has any bearing on the hand, she claimed KQ as her hand. oddly enough, I'm never inclined to believe players who tell me their hands.
all in all, its pretty likely I was beat, and my hand was only second pair anyway.

-- solid players don't open limp
-- assume you made a mistake and the blinds are 150/300, not 300/600. If they were 300/600 you should just shove pre
-- it doesn't matter what she has, because you don't know her hand when you make her decision
-- I'm not folding; I give her all combos of AK, which is unlikely, KJo+, K8s+, AQ, JT, 88, J9hh, T9hh and Ah5h-AhJh and we still have 36%. Take out the AKs and we're at 40%, given our weak-tight image her range is probably wider than that.

wow. I never would have thought those hands were possible.
as an aside, how do you put platers on a range preflop? especially when the hands you seen them play range from AA to J4os?

AQ is either the very top of our bluff-catching range or the bottom of our value range. Compare our equity at 36%-40% to JJ at 25%.

Putting people on a range takes practice. Every time they make an action, try to think of what hands they would do that with based on how loose they are preflop, how they play draws, the hands they show down, etc.

wow again. awesome thank you for the exercise.
I am currently carving an ice sculpture of you in my front yard. woot!

i made a mistake because the combos of hands we have after the flop change because of the cards on the flop, but you get the idea. (I edited my post).

That one will get you into trouble. If a solid player has your number, he's gonna let you do his betting till your deep enough to pounce on. ---

JusSayin ---

What your being advised here is to PAY ATTENTION. Even in the hands you fold. Take notes and MAKE DECISIONS. Stick to your decision. As you get better at it, your decisions will get better. But stand by your decisions. In the long run, the mistakes will improve your game.


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1) I think you are always beat there. You are very likely to have hit that flop, and she still wants to get it in. (I guess she could have Ah/Jh and shoving her straight and flush drawl, or she could be stupider and shoving *any* flush draw which is not likely IMO)
If Beth60 is really a woman, she is even less likely to be bluffing or drawing here as women tend to play more conservative. Yest there are plenty of exceptions, duh.

2) With 300/600 blinds and 50 antes, and one limper in the pot I just shove with A/Q to chase off the small pairs and stuff she could have. Our A/Q only pairs the flop 1/3 of the time.

3) How can Beth60 call $300 when she is not the small blind and the blinds are 300/600?

the table gives women a discount?
actually, the blinds were 150/300, i was confused.

This hand occurs well into the tourney, and a $5.50 tourney, even a rebuy after the rebuy period is over, will see a lot of limping. Whether it is the right thing to do is academic. But it happens. Depending on the table, players who play the raises, will get the whole table more excited, with nothing more than bigger stack size swings. So the temperament of the table, during the last few orbits would be a critical piece of info. This argument goes to the theoretical vs actual play of the game. And of course you never want to play your similar hands the same way.

I am not alone in my thinking.......

Beth is putting the screws to you and you have 2nd pair. Is it worth it? It is a do or die situation, and that has to weigh large.

Personally I think she hit the K, and given only the 'solid player' description you provide, I could play this hand passively and survive by folding. Now if we had tracker stats on her, and you, we could probably be more precise, but given what we are told, we are limited.

Whether or not it happens is irrelevant, obviously it does happen. The statement has more to do with our reads on the player, and is in fact correct. It is pretty much 100% wrong to open limp with 25-30 BBs or deep into a tournament.

Not even trying to start an argument, I know open limping is less advantageous than taking charge. However!!!!! It happens often in tourneys up to and including the biggest I have played with $26 buy-ins. So learning to deal with reality is what we need to work on. Theoretical is great, practice is usually different.

Once you know the table you can open limp with big hands providing you can afford it, if not your in shove fold/terrain. In many cases where you feel comfortable about your stack/position, an open limp with big hands can turn decidedly profitable. Yeah yeah, I know it can turn south real fast as well. Thus the importance of a post flop game. And usually, this particular post flop game is simple;
Did I hit big?
Can I hit big? (on turn or river)
Can I make villain believe I hit big? (and if so, how? and how much?)

If you get 2 yea's from those 3 questions, then continue. Simple.....

so /post

???? no clue about that statement.

It happens often where I have a real nice hand, and there are several limpers ahead of me. I want to see that flop, I have some notion (stats, reads, w/e) that if I raise, none of those limpers will fold. This reduces the situation to having KK, AA or fold. While this is nice advice, it ignores the fact of the great playable cards, QQ-99, broadway suited, or the whimsical shot with 67 suited just because it is cheap and I have position.

So in a tourney frame of mind, I see that I can not steal the pot. Limping becomes a sane option. I trust that if the flop misses me, I can drop out. I probably drop out of 2/3 of these situations. Depending on the hand/table dynamics, I could be folding 3/4, or 4/5's of these situations. But on those hands where the flop is decent, or great, I look for value.

In this particular situation, 2nd pair doesn't cut it for a tourney life decision. Perhaps tho we might mention that AQs in 3rd position is marginal.......ok, sort of marginal. However, the OP here, and the HH don't jive, as he was not sitting 3rd seat with th AQ via the HH.

This is why I'm leary of you, and not so much the strict numbers players.

You never know which side of the "rules" you're playing from. I try to think the same way. Mixing it up just puts a snafu on some folks.

I'll go so far as to drive up my VPIP early in a tournament because I know when I tighten up, I'll get all the calls I want. Over and over. They just can't ignore the VPIP boss..


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What are you talking about? I'm referring to the person who open limped, which is just terrible. Limping behind with AQs is equally terrible. The pot is already 15% of our stack and we have a premium hand, why would you let anyone take a shot at it for free? Do you really think we should only raise when a limper should fold? You act like we're bluffing with AQ.

I always LOL @ "tourney life" posts. Your tourney life ain't worth squat at 150/300 with a below-average stack. 2nd pair is plenty good if we have equity and odds vs. their range.

I think we are way beyond w/e OP was about, but are dealing with a real tangible situation, and it is clear we have different outlooks on that situation.

I don't discard your concept that pf raising is better than the limp along approach. Clearly a sane table will respect raises. HOWEVER, most tables are not sane especially early in any tourney of any size (STT's tend to clear the insane out fast tho).

So, reading the whole table dynamics is as important as reading each of the individual players at that table. If I know (believe) 2 players at a table will come along for almost any ride, regardless of how I bet, how can I adjust to benefit from that?

I can try to steal via semi-bluffs, but with 2 or more gamers that becomes overly risky and at least a bit spewy. Or I can play a better post flop game, with cheap looks.

And never should I try to play bot like poker doing the same thing each hand. So as variety, a run of a couple of orbits now and then of the cheap look game is usually profitable. It is seldom the little hands that will bust a tourney player, it is that overconfidence and a semi-big hand that kills.

You are not wrong, but neither am I. Except you are wrong regarding your apparent disregard about the concept of a tourney life. I think you must be very knowledgeable about re-incarnation.

I think you are beat most of the time in this situation. Best case scenario opponent has straight draw. Its common for people in position to megabet/raise their draws but, You are out of position, its a hairy board, I would just let it go. Being shorter stack I dont mind getting it all in with AQs and hate raising out of position; so i think a limp then check raise all would be optimal. You can still win the hand with a limp just play with caution and you still have the surprise factor with AQs which could pay off nicely.

I've made such mistakes a ton of times so I'm appreciating the advice Buster and dj11 are offering

You're not getting it. You don't want a sane table. You know the joke about moving up to where they respect your raises? That's what you're doing, thinking like a microstakes fish who wants people to fold when you have them crushed. We are not bluffing here, we have AQs ffs against a limper. You act like we lose money when people call when they're behind.

This isn't a 200 BB PLO table. You have a below-average stack. Cheap looks should not even enter your mind.

With this stack and AQs and a limper you should in fact, 100% raise.

No, you are wrong. Your tournament life isn't worth that much to begin with, it's worth even less when blinds are high and stacks are shallow. You can play perfectly and you will not cash 80% of the time. Furthermore, cashing isn't even your goal in a tournament. Your goal should be to get to the final table and more importantly, the final 3.

Stop putting value on "your tournament life," and look for +EV spots to chip up. If you want to preserve your stack, go play SNGs.

I acknowledge we are beat most of the time here, yet we still should call. DUCY?

Also, we're not OOP. And what is a hairy board? Do you mean drawy? The fact that it's drawy makes it more likely that we have the best hand.

Looks like Tournament play is still very +ev!!!!