How do you play your streaks?

How do you play your streaks?

I think we would all admit that streaks happen in poker. Be them good or bad. In baseball we cant always expain the rally's or the slumps. Just the same in Basketball when a shooter gets hot or not.

My question is this when you realize youre in a downswing... Do you change your games and move down in levels or do you continue to grind it out at the stakes you are.

For Example... I was running good in early February and then hit a bad streak at the Multi-table Sit-n-gos later in the month. I dropped over $50 at the $4.40 buy-ins and after that just got away from that game and moved down to the $1.10 buy-ins. Rode another week of running bad before I turned it around. My thinking is this.. I figure I saved myself at least another $50 or more by moving down in stakes. My Bankroll did not require me to move down but my opinion is streaks are going to happen and you need to ride them... Both ways.

What do you think?

[ ] streaks exist

You dont believe streaks exist???? Call it streaks, swings, variance, running bad, etc.

Variance exists but thinking you know when it's coming or doing anything based on that anticipation is flawed thinking. It's just as costly as calling without the right odds because you have a feeling about what's coming.

In other words it's silly superstitious thinking and it has no place in a good players mindset.

But the idea that streaks and running hot/cold exist and out there. A good player can use the perception of a hot/cold streak to cause his/her opponents to make mistakes because of the perceived streak.

Yeah, it's easy to trick idiots into playing badly because "clubs are hot tonight" but we should not be aspiring to be idiots ourselves.

"Clubs are hot tonight"? That's what you think Im talking about? Look at your own stats. Could your downswings been less costly if you would of recognized youre in a downswing and played at a lesser buy in?

Clubs are hot tonight = Recognizing when you're in a downswing.

Your previous results have NO bearing on your future results (unless you're tilting in which case you should stop playing).

Just because you lost 2 AI with AA in a row doesn't mean you're going to either win OR lose the next time. The cards have no memory and you can't know when or how variance will effect you. You can only play the current hand as well as possible. Thinking anything else is foolish.

When your on a hot streak, maybe stay at your limit and keep playing it. When you start running bad, drop down into you come back up or just stop playing depending on how you have already lost.

It's not being an idiot if you can get your opponent's to fold better hands because it appears you are on a hot streak, or call with worse hands because it looks like you are tilting. That is playing your image and playing your opponents weaknesses.

No it's only being an idiot if you believe in these streaks yourself.

Well there are stretches of times, in both directions where variance goes either very good for any given player or very bad for any given player. I do see and agree with your point about adjusting play solely for and because of variance swings.

I dont think Me and Dwolfg are argueing the same point. He's talking about from one hand to another and Im speaking of a range of maybe as much as 100 sit-n gos.

Hillbilly's second sentence in his own website says "I ran bad for a bit".... That's my exact point. We all go thru it and when I recognize that Im in it over a long haul of games then Im moving down in my stakes until I pull out of it.

No reason to be called an idiot because I disagree with you Hillbilly. It seems like the veterans at CC have less and less patience for anyone new or anyone who doesnt agree with them.

It's not up for agreement is his point. If you lose 100 sngs in a row, but it does not mean affect your ability to win the next one (without tilt). That's his point. You have a certain chance to win a hand/sng/tourney/ whatever/ and you can only view "running bad" in terms of prior hands, not the hands that are coming in the future.

Like if you lose 100 sngs in a row, you ran bad (probably). But you can never be presently(!) running bad, since the cards have no idea if you just won 100 sngs or lost 100 sngs. You ran bad, you ran good, but when you are playing a hand you are not running anything.

Notice that it's in the past tense. As in there is no way of knowing what the next hand will hold. There is no running bad, only ran bad. HUGE difference. And I only called you an idiot if you think you can predict variance. You don't really believe that do you?

Im Going to drop it. We will agree to disagree. Obviously you cant predict variance but I can sure recognize when Im in the middle of it and will choose to grind at a lighter price and when it turns around I will return to my normal bankroll games. It's a choice not exactly a right and wrong answer.

Haha what that makes no sense, so you can't predict future variance, but if you're running bad you'll move down til that downswing ends? I mean if your roll means you have to move down, fine, if you're playing bad, fine, but if not then it makes no sense

There is no middle of it, that's just it. You can never know what's coming next. Now if you're talking about recognizing when you're tilting and you shouldn't be playing? Great. I'm all for it. Otherwise. Sorry it doesn't exist.

Also you've been a member here longer than me so the "picking on the new guy" stuff really doesn't fly.

You factoring in the much lower ROI when you do cash? Much better IMO to focus on continuing to play solid poker.

If you flip a coin five times and it comes out heads all five times does that the sixth time should be heads? That is essentially what your saying but really it has just as good a chance as being heads as it does tails the past trials don't affect the odds of what is going to happen.

^^^^^ Not at all what Im saying

Yah that caught me right away too....'the middle of it'.. when there is no 'middle of it' because by suggesting you're in 'the middle of it', you are predicting the future events.
As soon as I saw the title of this thread it got me heading right for it.... because I don't believe in streaks.. rushes.. etc.

Today I played ~dozen MTTs & I'd say I've been runnin' bad. I'm not 'running' bad... I've 'been' running bad.

As far as player's suggestion to 'take time off' when you're 'running bad'. What are they expecting from the time off? (unless it's to play w/o tilt) because nothing is going to change in the 'time off' (actually if anything my game is a bit off once i've taken time off). I much prefer to persevere & work through it, all the while continuing to work on the emotional & mental aspects of my game (as it is good oppurtunity to grow as a player).

Even at the micro level's I play I hit streaks... mostly in rush haha. I worked my bankroll up mostly from freerolls, but rather recently I played a decent amount of rush. I was playing .02/.05 and my first real session lasted probably 10 hours. I bought in with $5 and turned it into around $15 in about a couple hours or so. After that it slowly kept growing up to about $30+ at one point.

Needless to say, that after a few more days I went on a cold streak and lost most of what I had won. Now I assume you meant a little longer term than my example there, but I adjusted my play back to freerolls once I lost my winnings. So I definitely change my stakes based on if I'm hot or cold (because a bankroll as small as mine is easily affected by streaks), because why waste a hot streak and why while on tilt?

I just take time off when its running bad for me. I do other things within the poker world...read-study-etc.

if the losing streaks affect how you play ...then maybe you should move down .....

BUT...would/should you also move down when you run super good and deviate from you're normal play?

Most of the times I stick to tourneys and sng's so I deal with up's and down's a lot. It's easier in tourneys because all you got to do is sit back and wait for the next streak to happen. I try to take advantage of when the cards seem to be going by way by opening up a little, and during bad times I figure it is never bad to pick up a blind to help it get a jump start.

I concur.

I don't think that it's wrong to anticipate the end of a hot streak of cards. If you've flopped monsters four or five hands in a row, I might consider limping or playing light with halfway decent cards to the flop because 1) a streak is going to end, it's just a matter of when, and 2) other players at the table are going to realize you've been playing big the past few hands and (depending on how many have been shown) might think you're starting to bluff. I'm not saying this is how I would absolutely play or how you should, but depending on the table I might do something like this. If I'm up against a couple of calling stations, it's only a matter of time before they suck out on me.

I agree with going down in stakes. When you are running good, most people go up in stakes, eventually. But I'm not convinced people in generall go back down in stakes. Keep up the good work

Yota

Find out the level where you are profitable and you have an adequate bankroll. If you have been beating that level before the downswing continue to play your best game without tilting at that level. If your downswing causes your bankroll to suffer, deposit enough to allow you continue at that level. Moving down should only be done if you lose confidence at the level you are playing. Being properly bankrolled allows for losing streaks and allows you to continue at the right level. If you lose 4 buy-ins and you move down a level it is going to take twice as long to get back up to your present level since you would have to win 8 buyins at the lower level to even yourself.

About 3 weeks ago I started multi tabling
micro stakes PLO on a new site with $50, I usually
play 4 tables at a time

Over 10 days I built my BR up to $200, in PLO the
variance/streaks are wild and I hit every river and
poker seemed oh so easy

then suddenly the poker gods flicked a switch and I
started missing every draw and my BR went down to
just over $100 in 5 days, what I normally do when I am
on ja losing streak is move down from 4 tables to 2 so any
losses are halved

then just as suddenly things turned again and I am up to
$180 again and poker is looking great again, but I know
it is only a matter of time before things change again

the think I have learnt is not to doubt the way you play
poker during a downswing, just keep on playing good poker
and things will turn round again

downswings are a horrible but inevitable product of
playing poker and we just have to accept them and know that
they will end and an upswing will soon be along

nc_royals you started a very reasonable thread for discussion,
In the case of those who do not understand Plato's Cave it is probably not worth trying to explain. But it would be more polite if superior typists were to allow superior thinkers the space to think and discuss. Different opinions may be considered before being rejected, with a well stated explanation, with a preference for quality rather than quantity.

Quote from the original post: 'when you realize youre in a downswing'

Clearly this is an important first step to realize this.
Without realization and counter action it will just worsen the situation.

There are actually several other threads in cardschat relating to variance and tilt which discuss possible reasons for it such as personal circumstances affecting concentration.
Unfortunately there are no scientific or logical explanations for 'running hot'
and I don't think we want to get in to cosmic or supernatural discussions here, (which I probably should point out I have no personal beliefs in), although I do recognise and accept the term.

So returning to the original question:
'My question is this when you realize youre in a downswing... Do you change your games and move down in levels or do you continue to grind it out at the stakes you are'.

If you have recognised there is a problem, then it would be sensible to make adjustments that will firstly minimise the damage and secondly aid recovery.

Actually this is already covered in Bank Roll Management.
If the bankroll gets reduced, then to maintain the correct percentages to play at would require stepping down a level.

However that is a bit late to be reacting if a more positive approach can be taken. I actually have a theory of my own that in addition to BRM a bit of Luck Management can be beneficial. The theory has already been not understood and scorned by the cave dwellers in this thread here: http://www.cardschat.com/showpost1596078-post79.html
But basically it agrees with the original posted proposal to change your games and move down in levels when you realize you're in a downswing.

jazzaxe makes a good point:
'If you lose 4 buy-ins and you move down a level it is going to take twice as long to get back up to your present level since you would have to win 8 buyins at the lower level to even yourself'.

Of course true gamblers move up the levels to try and recoup their losses early, inevitably leading to total ruin.

Clearly though you only intend to play at the lower levels until you can recognise that whatever it was that was causing the bad streak has passed and then move back to the previous level to start recouping the losses and hopefully return to winning ways.

Of course it should also be remembered when changing levels that different levels also have different types of play and players.

So in conclusion, Yes, if you recognise something is not working, do something about it.

".....when changing levels that different levels"

Is your whole post a 'level'??

In my cave-dwelling (mathematical) opinion, this thread seems to have veered farther & farther away from what I would deem as 'useful' advice for a proven/good player & now seems to be headed down the path to 'everything........ ' (< yup.. you guessed it!).

I think I need to go analyze my HH's from my last 100mtt's, to see if I'm 'currently' in a downswing..... cuz I'm considering entering the 5th Anniver. $5mil guar. on Stars next weekend.... but wouldn't want to do that 'if' I'm still 'in' it.

What I don't understand is how this ^ couldn't ring true in any player's mind? (even if they weren't aware before or are fairly new to the game or something... after reading this statement wouldn't the lightbulb go on?)

btw, tks for posting this - well-written, brief & perfectly to the point.

I get what you are saying. And when I do it -- and I do -- it's because my confidence is getting hammered, and I need to build that back up. I can usually do that at a lower level where the battering is not so financially painful, if it continues. The move down is more psychological than BRM-driven.

If things do not improve at the lower level, then I figure I need to fix me. Either something has gone wrong with my game or I am tilting more than I thought (not quite the same thing.) (I'm usually pretty aware of tilt.)

Usually, I do better at the lower level, my confidence gets better, and I can move back up again with some comfort.

I don't care much about winnings, since I am not close to a pro and do not need to stay at any particular level. I like to play, and I like to play more when the game is going well and when my head is clear. When I feel a bit of control. I don't often worry about getting back the lost money in short order, aka "levelling yourself." I worry about levelling my own self, not my bankroll. If moving down can help with that, that's my goal. The bankroll will follow.

Then there's the factor of regular wins vs regular losses at a particular table. A streak becomes pretty obvious, whether it's happenstance or playing ability. At any table where there is a luckbox, you may see others become more careful against him while his streak lasts. And they may swoop in on the unlucky one. It's a factor. Not a huge one, if it's simply variance. But it can have an effect on both you and the others. An unlucky streak is a reason for me to switch tables -- sometimes. Even a lucky streak can be-- if one is getting way too much respect. Not to change the variance, but to clean the perception slate. Plus a bit of superstition, I guess. God knows I've turned around a bad streak at times because others get sloppy against me.