Folding AA preflop

Hi all.

I know some of you will be saying "not again" but as I have not seen one of these polls for a while I want to start it again to see if things have changed.

So regular members, please don`t be nasty - its a bit of fun

I personaly think this kind of post helps new players to think about more than just the cards they are delt.

Here goes.

WSOP, Holdem 4 players left. (Live on TV)
Prize money
1st $12m
2nd $4m
3rd $2m
4th $1m.

U r delt AA in the big blind. U r short stack, 2nd (Phil Ivey) and 3rd place (Dan Harrington) are about the same, both with twice as many chips as you, chip leader (Doyle Brunson) has a massive chip lead.

UTG, Phil, all in, Dan all in, Doyle thinks for a while, then calls.

What do you do and why???

Oh no's not again

Considering I'm a relatively rich fcuker already, I call.

Edited: ****er to fcuker to get around the filter.

Now now TB, I said be nice

This is what i do. (http://www.cardschat.com/search.php)

Meaning???

Awwww-in!!! Think of the 12 million!! What better time to quadruple than now?! You're going in with the best hand Preflop!

It's true you can probably fold and watch either Dan harrington or Phil Ivey get eliminated, but I'd choose to go all-in.

P.S. Did I mention you're on TV? People around the world's gonna see you fold AA preflop.

Thanks for bringing this post back into line in the way it was intended.

I knew the `old stagers` would have a go!!!

Possibly time for some ppl to find another site if this one is getting so boring with the same questions?

OR>>>>

It might be about time for someone to learn something instead of starting 150+ threads asking the same basic questions? (http://www.cardschat.com/search.php?searchid=317996) This coming from a guy who honestly thinks he should fold XxXx Preflop (http://www.cardschat.com/f46/ace-rag-isnt-always-ugly-hand-87693/)cause he took a bad beat froma a worst hand.

There are several threads on this same topic, just search for it and youll find them. I have never been bored with this site.

I'd fold, there's probably more chance of getting $4m (or even $2 Million) by getting out of the hand and hoping 1 or 2 are knocked out, than by tripling up.

As identified by stormswa, I was taking the piss - having fun - if you are familiar with this emotion.

Maybe one of the rules in the forum should be "Before posting anything you must make sure they have been authorised by mishman. He might get annoyed"

I take it your 2,838 posts have been completely different???

Remember, you have an option. IF YOU DON`T LIKE THE TITLE OF A POST DON`T READ IT - Simple really?

Seriously, search the damn topic. There are atleast 3 threads i know of that are on a subject along these lines with great informative posts.

Even AA against 3 other players has less than a 50% chance to hold up. You have 2 choices and I will do the math and show you what would happen either way. i voted fold before I started writing this post.

So this is how you finish if you call:
50% time 4th and win 1 mill
10% time 3rd for $2 mill (bad beats puts you here)
25% time 2nd for $ 6 mill (where you should finish after winning with AA)
15% time 1st for $12 mill (keep that good card run going)

1,000,000x .5 + 2,000,000 x .1 + 4,000,000 x .25 + 12,000,000 x .15 = 3.5 mill ave winnings

folding here I would expect something like this
0% finish 4th (someone will bust out)
60% finish 3rd for 2 mill (shortstacked against 2 larger stacks)
35% finish 2nd for 4 mil (you double up or triple up once and are back in and keep it going)
5% finish 1st for 12 mil (card gods loved you from then on)

2,000,000 x .6 + 4,000,000 x .35 + 12,000,000 x .5 = 3.6 mill ave earnings


Averages on guess finishing makes this look like a real coin flip and won't matter either way. I voted fold and would average an extra 100,000 over the long run by folding.

Anyone else want to try and make a longer and more meaningless post over some wierd question.

That is how you would do the math to see where you would finish. I could get alot more specific if you had only given chip counts instead of estimates.

I think you would have to take into account that the maths might work but how often are you going to get to the final table in the WSOP?

I`ve had a chance to cool down.

I don`t want to fall out mishc. The difference between me and you could be what we are aiming to get out of this site.

I have zero friends that are interested in poker, so for me it is more of a delayed chat/ conversation with `friends online` who play poker. I`m not looking to get specific answers to specific questions, although the feedback is good.

So possibly it`s me on the wrong site, I don`t know,

Having said that, at the time of writing, 7 people have voted on the poll with 6 seeming to be happy to discuss the topic.

Excellent work!

The results here are skewed by the 1st place prize money being so much higher than 2nd - if you got $8 Million instead of $12 million for first, the average earnings on your figures would be $2,050,000 for calling and $3,000,000 for folding. Taking into account the remote chance of you winning (15% and 5% seem fairish), it's a clear fold.

made a correction after thinking about it. Editing time was already past.

P.S. I would just be happy to be in that situation no matter what with those players.

I understand the maths but I would probably go all in, I would be ashamed of folding a pair of aces on TV, plus If you are short stacked there are very few chances of getting another top pair that allowz you to keep in the race for the first prize......

I have only ever read one good valid reason to fold AA preflop, and that would be that you are on or very near the bubble, with enough chips to get ITM.

You are way past this here, what possible reason could anyone provide to think they would fold here. Something brilliant no doubt, like waiting for a checked bb and flopping the nuts?

4 folks left, the blinds are gonna eat you alive in 2 rounds or so.


XXXXXXXXX

As an aside, I'm gonna guess we have all stepped away for some period and come back to a game and checked our recent hands, which were auto-folded, and found we missed the opportunity to play an AA. I have done it probably a dozen times. Eventually I realized that at least those Aces didn't get cracked, and I was still there.

why are people actually trying to answer this question when we don't even have the chip stacks and blinds?

For the same reason that one of us is going to be sitting at that final table with pocket As.

i don't get it

I'm shortstacked either way, I need a double / triple up. What better chance do I have than with pocket aces? Ya 2 people in the pot but for all I know they have pocket Qs and pocket Ks.

I'm sorry but I don't think any pro in the world has ever folded AA pre-flop. If they suck out, then hey you know you couldn't of done anything else.

But there is something to think about, by folding you at least get an extra $1m but if you win, you get an extra $3m and a chance at $12m

Edit: Just read the part where they have twice as many chips as me, it really makes no difference then and I might fold. If I call and win, I get 3rd place and am shortstacked / close to 2nd chip stack. If I fold I am 100% positive I am getting 3rd place but then I have no chance at 2nd or 1st.....

The general poin Chris is this.

If u fold u r guarenteed to jump at least one spot, so from $1-$2m, possibly to second + $4m if the large stack busts the other two.

It's a moot point

ICM - I searched to find it.

Thanks for that.

I still say I fold to guarentee the extra $1m big ones though

IMO, the gambler in me has a split personality and becomes an accountant

fyp. also AA has ~63% equity against three other random hands, and ~68% vs three ranges of AA-QQ/AK - I don't know where you're getting your less than 50% from.

bbb you're probably right in saying it's a moot point because in this artificial situation it's always going to be a call. some blind/stack combinations make it a more obvious call than others, though.

You're already in the money and you have the best hand preflop. It's a call every day of the week and twice on Sunday. If you're not calling with this hand, what hand would you call with?

Many hour later I come to see that Titans did some math and shows whatever he portends to show, and all it does is leave me wondering what hand would one want to be playing in the above situation? T2 maybe? no no no, that hand is already taken.......

Anyone that says they would fold this wouldn't be at the final table of the WSOP ME anyway.

There was a smoewhat similar situation in last years final table if you remember. It was down to 3 and the young guy in second place (forgot his name) had a straight flush draw after the flop. The short stack went all in with his top pair and Jamie gold went all-in with a straight draw. Now the young guy folded, Gold won and he got second. However, if he called he would have won (the Qs would have given him the flush) and he would have been alot closer to golds chip count heads up and might have won. In his case folding got hm second but without enough chips to do anything with. There is a huge difference between 1st and second when you factor in everything else that goes with winning.

You should be playing to win not just move up a spot or 2. Calling with AA gives you a better chance to win so you should take it without hesitation.

It's likely that the three players might be holding each other's outs, so the equity for AA would probably be even higher than first thought.

Of course it's a call, yatta yatta yatta, what other people have said. But here's my expert readz in addition: Phil's all-in was a bluff with 93, Dan Harrington's calling him with AK which we crush, and Doyle just wants to gamble with T2. Doyle will make tens full on the river

Yeah, looking at it now 50% does seem low, i ran it through a calculator quick and must have done something wrong.

I`m bound to say I disagree.

Every hand in poker represents a different challenge. That different challenge normally depends on a variety of variances.

In the main, however, it comes down to cash. This post is similar but different to the post someone put out about being dealt AA in the very hand of the WSOP and u r on the bb and all of the others at the table go all in before you.

In that situation I call - I have nothing to lose.

This hand however is different. IMO it would be somwhat reckless to call. U might win the hand but if u fold u win $1m.

However, the reason for the edit. If u r happy with $1m and the extra mil won`t make a difference I suppose u would call.