Effective Stack Sizes needed to set mine in 3bet pots

Here's a scenario; Your a 12/10 TAG who has been at a table only 2 or 3 orbits and haven't played a hand yet. You open-raise 4xbb from MP with 99. The button who seems pretty Laggy 3bets you. You're intuition is that he is 3betting light but you just don't have any history to prove it. The easy thing to do would be to fold. Another option is to 4bet but that would require putting over half your stack into the pot preflop, leaving you without much choice but to shove and even if he is 3betting as light as AJ/ AT/ KQ/ KJ you are at best a coinflip against his range, so does that leave one other option? Could you flat his 3bet and hope to flop a set? If so what effective stack size would you need to make this move +EV?? Could you do it with 100bb effective stacks or would you need to much deeper?

Why would you 4bet to 50+ bb's?
How much did he 3bet?


Fold pre. You have 12 hands on this guy.
" seems pretty laggy" isnt a very good read.
Especially OOP.

If I bet 4xbb preflop which I do at 2nl (unless there is a calling station who calls any raise then it's more) then the pot is 5.5 bb. If villain makes a pot sized bet it would be 13.5 bb. If I 3 bet it would be 40bb+.

So without reads you fold 99 OOP vs a 3bet; fair enough and I usually would too. What about TT, JJ, QQ?.

Anyway the question is, what sized effective stacks would you need to have to make set-mining in a 3bet pot +EV? Usually I read that if you call a raise with a small pp then it should not be more than 5% of your stack. However, in a 3bet pot my hunch is that you can call a bigger percentage of your stack because an opponent who 3bets would be less likely to fold. So wouldn't the effective stack size need to be less than 20x the bet?

4 bet or fold imo. Calling leaves you OOP and if they board isn't favorable, your going to check fold anyway(typical play not saying you in this exact hand). Playing oop in raised pots sux if your just set mining.

As for odds, most will say you need 8-1 in implied odds. But realisticly you need closer to 15-1, to make for all the times you check fold and the times he's not paying you off when you do hit.

BTW, even if its only been a few orbits, if he perceives you as tight. He'll fold to your 4 bet. If he just calls, you at least have initiative in hand.

And lastly. If he hasn't been proven to 3 bet light before, he's prolly not doing it now( I usually give them credit on their 1st 3 bet, but that's me and is player dependant).

Strictly set mining in a 3bet pot I'd be looking for stacks of AT LEAST 160bbs, 200bb would be more preferable.

Thanks WV. I started thinking about it. At 100bb if you raise to 4xbb and get 3bet to 13.5 you have to call 9.5 bb. If you do that 9 times and check/fold when you miss then 9.5 x 8 = 76bb. If you flop a set then you need to get at least 76bb to break even and probably even more for the rare times you'll lose set over set or to a straight or flush. Therefore at 2nl with 100bb effective stacks against an unknown villain OOP when I am 3bet I think the best line is 4bet/ shove AA/KK and fold the rest. I think with history I could shove QQ against a villain who 3bets 7%+. So, thinking about this, the best way to counter being 3bet when OOP is not to flat and set mine, rather it is to 3bet more myself when in position.

Ok well if you're going to be shoving only AA/KK do yourself a favor and note by what and how often you're being called.

If they're never calling you can start 4betting a lot wider. If they're always calling with worse you can 4bet a lot wider.

So just note what you're opponents are doing and adapt.

Is this FR? I thought everyone open-folds 99 at FR.

Will do. Hey, I was thinking about the 7%+> I just ran QQ through Pokerstove.

QQ

vs

{TT+ AQs+ AQo (4.67%)}

QQ has 55% equity vs that range. Would you consider that enough of an edge to shove against that range?

I open 77+ UTG FR. I thought that was standard.

Yes it is. If you had 51% equity it would be enough. In reality you need less because of dead money (money already in the pot).

Great. I'm just getting comfortable Pokerstove and love it.

Final question (I think). How much history (how many hands) on villain do you need to consider a 3bet range valid??

I'm still a little confused going back to the 3bet and 4bet sizes.

I haven't played NL2 in a very long time, but are pot sized raises standard? I always 3 and 4bet much smaller than that, as I will almost always be able to get the intended result of my move at a discount (info, misrepresent the strength of my hand, set up the pot size for a flop or turn shove, etc).

As to the final question, you'll start to get a fuzzy idea of your opponents range after about 100 hands, but it's still nowhere near a reliable sample.

everyone open-folds every hand at FR