Am I riding bad variance or playing it wrong?

Hi,

I decided to grind out the cash games as SnG's were becoming to much in terms of the variance but I'm feeling frustrated with cash games now to.

I know you will probably think that my sample size is to low, which to be fair it is. However, when looking at my graph on PT3 I'v noticed some massive differences but can't pinpoint the problems. I most certainly have been sucked out in several big pots when I was favourite like, full house all in post flop, for him to catch a higher FH on river which has most definitely cost me a profit.Sucked out with all kinds of stuff which I know is normal but after hours of playing games and winning the small pots I could build up and be slightly in profit or breaking even. Next thing I get the nuts and lose lol like 1 buy-in so gotta grind it out yet again.

The EV is like +$20.00.. so how am I down? Am I over betting or something ? Although I'm keeping the the game plan people recommend, TAG.

It's the same with showdown, I'm up a lot yet I'm down massively without showdown. Are these normal looking graphs or am I doing something wrong big time? Seems either one way or another. I can usually break even even after losing several buy-ins. I can then get a profit then again go down. Seems I just hover around the break even mark. Is this because I'm calling to much and folding to much when? Or could I be in a bad run and just being sucked out and soon variance will go in my favour so I get some profits?I don't know how to work the graph out exactly so would appreciate some feedback.

ps: I don't know why it says I'v been playing 500 days lol. Only been at it around the week. Well the "proper" grind..

EDIT

I can't seem to edit my post.

However, after posting this graph I went to play a session. People say they run bad, however I believe I run worse than anyone. I lost (again) another 2 buy-ins within the space of 5 hands whilst having the nuts. Now I'm sure I can build it back up again, however this seems to be what happens all the time for me..I'm officially the most unluckiness player in the world lol. I don't get how this can happen with exactly the same thing over and over. I get back even, then lose $5.00 and again get back level, loss big pots when having the nuts. This has felt like the same thing over the course of the 8,000 hands hence the reason I can't build a roll. Do people ever get this repeatedly day after day or is just me?

I can't see this as "normal" for someone even running bad, it seems crazy. This isn't a whine by the way..

I don't know if I'm supposed to be a "winning" player or so, more just someone who's been blessed with maybe getting money back through rakeback and just breaking even all the time. It becomes quite frustrating though, it seems to be the same thing in SnG's/cash games.

Check these out though..

PokerStars Game #51487637244: Hold'em No Limit ($0.01/$0.02 USD) - 2010/10/22 15:06:35 WET [2010/10/22 10:06:35 ET]
Table 'Eltanin' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: pescata2 ($0.78 in chips)
Seat 2: KingOfRhodes ($1.42 in chips)
Seat 3: jhon7525 ($5 in chips)
Seat 4: wuma-wuma ($2.66 in chips)
Seat 6: d3nc ($2.08 in chips)
Seat 7: elcai89 ($2.09 in chips)
Seat 8: ramdeebam ($1.92 in chips)
KingOfRhodes: posts small blind $0.01
jhon7525: posts big blind $0.02
OxDima: sits out
ale el rey: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ramdeebam [As Ac]
wuma-wuma: raises $0.08 to $0.10
d3nc: folds
elcai89: folds
ramdeebam: raises $0.24 to $0.34
pescata2: folds
KingOfRhodes: folds
jhon7525: folds
wuma-wuma: calls $0.24
*** FLOP *** [Ts 3d 7c]
wuma-wuma: bets $2.32 and is all-in
ramdeebam: calls $1.58 and is all-in
Uncalled bet ($0.74) returned to wuma-wuma
*** TURN *** [Ts 3d 7c] 6♦
*** RIVER *** [Ts 3d 7c 6d] K♥
*** SHOW DOWN ***
wuma-wuma: shows [Kd Kc] (three of a kind, Kings)
ramdeebam: shows [As Ac] (a pair of Aces)
wuma-wuma collected $3.68 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $3.87 | Rake $0.19
Board [Ts 3d 7c 6d Kh]
Seat 1: pescata2 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: KingOfRhodes (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: jhon7525 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: wuma-wuma showed [Kd Kc] and won ($3.68) with three of a kind, Kings
Seat 6: d3nc folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: elcai89 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: ramdeebam showed [As Ac] and lost with a pair of Aces

Thats fine, I expect to lose Aces anyway lol

PokerStars Game #51487885066: Hold'em No Limit ($0.01/$0.02 USD) - 2010/10/22 15:12:54 WET [2010/10/22 10:12:54 ET]
Table 'Vesta III' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: Muddy Chris ($2.45 in chips)
Seat 2: HLM38 ($0.98 in chips)
Seat 3: emyldk ($3.15 in chips)
Seat 4: ifss ($1.13 in chips)
Seat 5: pkrplya 18 ($1.41 in chips)
Seat 6: mxmxru ($3.89 in chips)
Seat 7: ramdeebam ($1.70 in chips)
Seat 9: shans_097 ($0.98 in chips)
shans_097: posts small blind $0.01
Muddy Chris: posts big blind $0.02
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ramdeebam [Ac As]
HLM38: calls $0.02
emyldk: folds
ifss: raises $0.04 to $0.06
pkrplya 18: folds
mxmxru: folds
ramdeebam: raises $0.30 to $0.36
shans_097: folds
Muddy Chris: folds
HLM38: folds
ifss: raises $0.77 to $1.13 and is all-in
ramdeebam: calls $0.77
*** FLOP *** [8d Kd 5d]
*** TURN *** [8d Kd 5d] 3♦
*** RIVER *** [8d Kd 5d 3d] Q♦
*** SHOW DOWN ***
ifss: shows [Ts Js] (a flush, King high)
ramdeebam: shows [Ac As] (a flush, King high)
ramdeebam said, "lolo"
ifss collected $1.10 from pot
ramdeebam collected $1.10 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $2.31 | Rake $0.11
Board [8d Kd 5d 3d Qd]
Seat 1: Muddy Chris (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: HLM38 folded before Flop
Seat 3: emyldk folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: ifss showed [Ts Js] and won ($1.10) with a flush, King high
Seat 5: pkrplya 18 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: mxmxru folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: ramdeebam (button) showed [Ac As] and won ($1.10) with a flush, King high
Seat 9: shans_097 (small blind) folded before Flop

Ok second lot of Aces in space of a minute or two..


Now people will probably say I deserved this beat after I called a raise with K,10 OS. However, After first Aces lost, then second Aces had split pot I tilted a bit and thought well if people can call with bullshit and hit, then so can I. Only difference is, not only did I hit, but he hit for better full house which brings me back to the point of me always keep being outdrawn when I thought I had the "nuts". I honestly thought the guy raised with Aces..and my thoughts were, well If I lose Aces then so can everyone else, sod them! You will probably laugh hard at this beat and I deserved it but it just doesn't seem fair. :s


PokerStars Game #51487849412: Hold'em No Limit ($0.01/$0.02 USD) - 2010/10/22 15:11:59 WET [2010/10/22 10:11:59 ET]
Table 'Arequipa' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: leusteniux ($2.11 in chips)
Seat 2: ramdeebam ($1.75 in chips)
Seat 3: czaki2000 ($1.94 in chips)
Seat 4: 13scorpion26 ($2.98 in chips)
Seat 7: xiaxia209 ($1.01 in chips)
Seat 8: BaRT_ru ($1.69 in chips)
Seat 9: mxmxru ($2.96 in chips)
LeonaNChuck will be allowed to play after the button
xiaxia209: posts small blind $0.01
BaRT_ru: posts big blind $0.02
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ramdeebam [Kc Ts]
mxmxru: calls $0.02
leusteniux: folds
ramdeebam: calls $0.02
czaki2000: raises $0.08 to $0.10
13scorpion26: folds
xiaxia209: folds
BaRT_ru: folds
mxmxru: calls $0.08
ramdeebam: calls $0.08
*** FLOP *** [8c Kd Th]
mxmxru: checks
ramdeebam: bets $0.10
czaki2000: calls $0.10
mxmxru: folds
*** TURN *** [8c Kd Th] [Td]
ramdeebam: checks
czaki2000: bets $0.10
ramdeebam: raises $0.14 to $0.24
czaki2000: calls $0.14
*** RIVER *** [8c Kd Th Td] 2♣
ramdeebam: bets $0.28
JMouW joins the table at seat #6
czaki2000: raises $1.22 to $1.50 and is all-in
ramdeebam: calls $1.03 and is all-in
Uncalled bet ($0.19) returned to czaki2000
*** SHOW DOWN ***
czaki2000: shows [Ks Kh] (a full house, Kings full of Tens)
ramdeebam: shows [Kc Ts] (a full house, Tens full of Kings)
czaki2000 collected $3.46 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $3.63 | Rake $0.17
Board [8c Kd Th Td 2c]
Seat 1: leusteniux folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: ramdeebam showed [Kc Ts] and lost with a full house, Tens full of Kings
Seat 3: czaki2000 showed [Ks Kh] and won ($3.46) with a full house, Kings full of Tens
Seat 4: 13scorpion26 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: xiaxia209 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: BaRT_ru (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: mxmxru folded on the Flop



Is this game for me or what?

The point I'm making at the minute is that Aces over 7,000 hands have cost me the most money. Around $10.00 in total along with Queens. It makes me Sick, surely it should of evened itself out over time by now? The thing that is really annoying me is that I'v been playing my TAG and wasn't getting paid off so I began to play more hands and limping more with suited connectors and luckily there the ones that have got me back even. If I carried on my "TAG" game I'd be broke now I'm serious. So what the hell is going on? lol.

My pocket 4'4s which hit a Set got me my biggest "pay" along with suited connectors.Aces,Kings,Queens, Ak,AQ have all cost me money over the course of 7,000 hands. Normal? I don't think so..


By the way, don't think this is a whine or bad beat post etc it really isn't but it seems TAG can't beat it from what I'v seen..I have become now officially more Lose Agg player and it's got me back my losses.

I'd like a response from TPC please as well, the cash kid wonder.

Yea, i would stop playing pocket Aces, just fold them preflop to save yourself alot of money. imo

Do you have Poker Tracker? If so please post stats for these starting hands. For as much ranting as I have done lately here are my numbers for the Big 3

AA dealt 243 times Win 96.73% Amt won: $ 131.83 BB won/ hand 6.03
KK dealt 244 times Win 87.70% Amt won: $ 62.57 BB won/ hand 3.12
QQ dealt 250 times Win 80.00% Amt won: $ 10.79 BB won/ hand 0.81

only QQ is below most EV charts. I am running well on AA & KK.

And when I sit back and analyze my losses with QQ a lot of them are because I was so willing to put my whole stack in with them. I do that a lot less now but probably still too often.

I have been even more guilty with JJ & AK

JJ dealt 254 times Win 68.50% Amt won: $ -23.40 BB won/ hand -0.79

AKs dealt 153 times Win 86.01% Amt won: $ -42.73 BB won/ hand -3.29
AKo dealt 492 times Win 66.67% Amt won: $ -13.79 BB won/ hand -0.09

If you do not have Pokertracker download the trial version and start analyzing your play. If you study your numbers you will find your leaks.

Your sample size is like, ridiculously small. The hands you posted are absolutely irrelevant, the fact that you feel the need to post them is a massive leak. Don't worry though, you have plenty of other leaks. But the only way you're going to find them is by posting hands and analyzing sessions.

what are your positional stats?

Well, what does the graph mean? Indeed like I said in my post, the sample size is very small, however surely there's something to work on with regards to 7,000 hands. What is a rough idea where variance is ridden out?

I posted the hands purely based on an example of grinding out for several hours and making a profit to then take bad beats in 3 hands to then be in the red. It has been the same for the whole 7,000 hands. I'm not worried about having leaks like yourself everyone has leaks, that's not an issue as like yourself over time you iron out the leaks noone can be perfect.

I'm just not up to date on exactly what the stats mean on the graph. Obviously I know what they mean but I mean as in what it shows. I'm guessing you don't know either?

As I've said my losses have all come from the top pairs, not limping or playing them wrong. Like when I posted around a month ago and said people was calling my raises, i adjusted and put a bigger bet in but even losing more now lol.

Postional stats I will up date exactly. Around 70-80% wins have come from the button and late position.

ps: What's classed as a good sample size then?

HeHe. Well yeah I feel tempted too! Out of 30 or so times being dealt Aces, I'm still lossing money. Probably 50% have been preflop All-ins.

Thanks FX for the positive reply. I will get on my PC later and get the stats of PT and post them up. Cheers.

You need a way bigger sample size before we can make any assumptions about your play.

It's possible to run bad for 100K hands or more. Quick answer, you're running bad and experiencing some negative variance. As you've mentioned your sample size is really small, but we can still get an idea of what you are doing from this sample. From the graph I can tell you have a major leak just by looking at your red line. I'll get to that in a minute.

Your EV is the gold/puke yellow line. Your are actually running about $10 behind EV. What the EV (expected value) on the graph is showing your all in EV. This is basically just showing if you were ahead or behind when you got your money in. I know players that play limits way higher than you and I running $10K behind EV. So all you should really take from it is that you got your money in good.

It's kind of a shitty stat, cause there is nothing you can do to fix it. Unless you are running above the EV line, you could possible be stacking off too light, which would mean you are running good.

The blue line is your showdown line. You are up about $20 there. For the most part it trends upwards which means you usually have the best hand at the showdown. Now we need to see what your WTSD stat is? You can get that stat from the general tab of PT3. You could be missing some value on the river, however, that's impossible to tell just from the graph.

The flip side of the blue line is the red line. You are trending negatively downward which is a huge leak. This means you are probably calling too many raises preflop then folding when you miss on the flop. Which means you probably aren't three betting preflop enough.

From the general tab in the player statistics column, please post your VP$IP, PFR, WTSD, W$SD, AF, 3Bet, CBet F, CBet T, CBet R, Fold 3B. Also, go to the positions tab and post all the position statistics. Just hit the button with the four arrows and post it like you did the graph, you can do that for the player statistics column on the general tab as well. I and others will be able to tell a lot more about your play from those stats.

You need to hit the filters button and go in and set the filter for 10/1/2010. I usually look at mine by the month, and at the end of the moth I'll look at it for the year if I've made changes in my play to figure out if the changes are worth keeping and what not.

You can only edit your post for a half hour from the time you posted it. This post was made about an hour later.

It's part of poker, you are being too results oriented. You're also probably not a winning player yet. It's going to take a lot of work, studying and practice to get there. You need to know that you are making good plays and playing good poker and doing this all the time. It's called playing your A game (Read Tommy Angelo's book "Elements of Poker"). In the long run you'll be ahead. It's hard to think that way from the beginning but you must figure out how to brush off bad sessions, or you'll never be successful in any form of poker over the long run. Because you are new, you also have a lot to work on. Which you are doing by posting threads like these.

So keep posting hands but not bad beat hands. Hands that you have questions on. Questions like should I check the turn for pot control here? Should I have three bet to isolate here? ect.

I'm not even going to bother commenting on the AA hands. Those are just normal beats which come with variance. However, I did notice on all the above hands your stack is less than 100 big blinds. You really need to set your auto buyin up so you always have 100 big blinds at the start of every hand.

As far as the KT hand goes. You need to play good poker all the time. You can't just say F it, I lost with my AA, now I'm going to crack someone's AA with my KT. That's a losers mentality. You should be folding KTo from the blinds. Because you are going to be out of position on the flop. It's ok to call with suited connectors there because you were getting almost three to one. But KTo is just going to get you into trouble, as you found out. You'll never know where you stand if you pair your K. Till you face a huge bet on the turn or river, and then most likely have to fold. Or the ultimate worse case which happened in that hand, hit a monster and lose to a bigger one. You need to make plays that are going to be profitable over the long haul.

I had a whole month where my biggest losing hands were AA, QQ and AK. For me that's about 50k hands. So yes, it's possible. You can't let it get to you. It's easier said than done. I ran like absolute dog crap for a little over three months. Which was for about 160k hands. Variance is crazy, you just need to realize over the long haul you'll be up. It took me going through that bad run to realize all this. I use to get pissed off when I'd lose with flopped sets and other monster hands. Now I just shrug it off and continue on. You need to set a schedule and stick to it. Make it a hand goal or a points goal. Whatever, you want it to be. And continue to play no matter what, unless you feel tilted, then you should cut your session short. The longer you play, you'll realize these beats happen all the time, and there is nothing you can do to stop it, you just have to keep chugging along. If you can't get passed it, then poker probably isn't for you. Just remember the more hands you play a day, the more variance will even out over the long haul.

PM me about doing a sweat session. I think you watching someone else play might put some things in better perspective.

Thanks for the reply TPC, seems easier to come to terms with it now. I couldn't imagine going 50k hands with that crap!

Here are some stats for you to look at.

Thanks again, something positive to keep me going again your replies. At least it makes sense to me the simple context you put everything in.

In general you seem to be calling too much PF and not raising enough.

For full ring you are waaay to loose in EP. You're limping in a lot. For seats 6,5 and 4 you should be raising the pot if you enter into it. Play a tight range in those seats. Something like 99+ and AQs+. Its ok to fold small pairs here. You will always be OOP and you need to play hands that are good enough to counter being OOP.

I didn't look at your Expanded Display Details that you posted, because I never look at those stats and don't feel like trying to figure them out. Please post the Player Statistics found on the bottom of the general tab, that is just one left of the details tab that you posted above.

I did look at your positions tab. Look at the image I posted below. The top stats are your positional stats, the bottom stats are mine for this month at 10nl. The only reason I'm loosing from position 1 is I've ran bad, set over sets, sets drawn out against ect. I'm losing in position six due to AA and KK and QQ getting busted. No big deal, it's just variance.

Look at your VP$IP and PFR compared to mine. Your VP$IP and PFR shold always be within a few points of one another. This means you are calling way too many raises and not three betting enough. Also you could possibly be calling with hands like AJo, KQo, KJo ect. When I face a raise from UTG while I'm in late position, I'm throwing those hands away unless I feel I can out play the villain once the flop comes. You should just be throwing them away, you need to play pretty straight forward at 2nl. This is what is causing your CCPF (cold call Preflop) to be so high. Your CCPF is 6 to 8% higher than mine. You need to be three betting with JJ+ and AK more than just calling behind.

I'm raising in position more, So I'm either taking the pot right there, or winning by c betting when they check to me on the flop, this is why my Win% and W$WSF (won money when saw flop) percentages are higher than yours. You also need to look and see who likes to donk bet out. I've noticed on these micros when you raise to steal the blinds and the bb calls, they like to lead out (which is called a donk bet). A lot of times they donk out for a min bet or a double min bet, I more times than not raise them to pot if I have a hand or not and they usually fold. You need to be more aggressive on the flop and probably on the turn (hard to tell from these stats, but it's also a good assumption looking at the W$WSF and your Win%).

Poker is a balance, it's easy to say you need to be more aggressive, but you can't be aggressive all the time or you'll just spew chips like crazy. You also can't just sit and wait for a hand and expect to win a stack. You need to find a balance in between. You need to learn who is tight passive and who the fish are. To make poker sound super simple, once you learn how to spot who is tight passive and who the fish are, all you want to do is isolate and play in heads up pots with them. The tight passive player, you want to make them fold. The calling station fish, you want to value bet when you make hands, you ideally want him to call a bet every street, and you can usually do this with top pair. Again, easier said than done.

That's where practice comes in. You'll learn what boards and who to three barrel to get them to fold on the river. You'll learn who to value bet thinly, you'll learn who to play passive against when you flop a monster and just let them put money in. Again, we are trying to balance our play to get the most money out of our opponents. You'll also learn there are just some players you don't have to balance your play against, they are just clueless. All this comes with practicing and a lot of it. You're not going to make any money for a year or two. Just think of it as going to poker school, then eventually you'll start doing things automatically as they become second nature to you.

Finally, you need to realize variance is a huge part of the game, and you can't let it get to you. And it can last way longer than you think. After a hand, think could I have done anything differently with the information I had at the time of my decision? If the answer is yes, then learn from your mistakes. If the answer is no, then just put your head down and keep moving forward.

I hope this helps. I tend to make things seem simple, but it takes a long time to learn how to apply these concepts. I'm still learning the most effective ways all the time. Every good poker player is always learning.

Edit: Also, look how loose I am on the button. The latter position the looser I am. The earlier the position the tighter I am.

Your totals on the bottom, you're a 23/7 compared to my 13.5/11. I'm a TAG, I would call you Loose passive(No offense, you're still learning). You are way too lose from the SB, you calling cause you are getting half price, but you are doing so way too often. Same with the bb, seat 6,5,4,3 and 2. You need to tighten up your range a lot. From early position you should be open folding small pairs AJo, KQo, KJo, QJo, JTo ect. This is probably best learned from watching others play via sweat sessions or watching videos.

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ahh makes more sense now thank you very much. I will upload the screenshot when I get back to my pc as that is there poker tracker is and post back shortly. Cheers buddy!

Lightly browsing over the stats you provide here I gotta say, YOU ARE NOT PLAYING TAG POKER! More like Wishy washy passive. WWP. Limping too much, and when you have a hand you don't get aggressive enough, or to aggressive. So for us, but more for yourself, please tell us your definition of TAG, and LAG. This may seem silly, but VP$IP over 20 is not tight, so either you misunderstood what TAG is, or confuse Aggression with tightness/looseness. They are separate and complimentary. The tight/ loose part tells about your starting hand selection, and the aggressive/passive part tells what you do with those cards.

I think many players confuse the agro part with being some substitute for bad cards, thus they think they can shove 72o and everyone will fold to the agro part. We all know that will work sometimes, but not hand after hand after hand. It is a scalpel that will do a particular thing most of the time.

Start thinking about value betting, and bet sizing.

Learn to love to fold.

And take TPC up on that sweat session offer.

Well, I should of stated which I had in a bad beat thread that recently changed to more loose aggresive because I wasn't being paid for my TAG play. Infact, I was lossing money and would of gone bust if I carried on. You may think this is a load of rubbish but with my bankroll, TAG just wasn't doing enough and when I did push with my Aces/Kings they was busting all day. So my connectors I started limping with and luckily hit some straights and full houses which has been a reason I haven't busted.. The "top" hands as people would call have caused me the most loss. Aces being the most, around $10.00 in total I'v lost.

I define TAG as raising 5xBB (which resulted in everyone folding, or being re-raised all-in which I obliged with being favourite) After losing a lot I decided TAG just wasn't working for me as maybe I was being to tight..ie: folding connectors in late position when I could of limped and SHOULD of limped.

Comparing my stats to your, I guess by the looks of it the VP$IP is double but I'm sure it would of been much lower 2000 hands back when I was playing so much tighter calling all the top cards and even folding low pairs in early postion..

Cheers TPC

Here's is the shot and that sweat session sounds very good. When are you Free? thanks

This isn't playing TAG... TAG players will almost always raise when they want to play, not calling many raises, especially from the blinds. The only exception would be good implied odds hands in multi-way pots, when they have position. They will play very tight from early position, and raise wide from the BTN and CO. TAG's also are aware of their opponents and table selection, they will look to sit with the weak-tight players on their left so they can blind steal, and with the fish on their right, so they can value bet the hell out of them when they have position.

TAG is about so much more than playing good cards, I'm not saying that's all you were doing, but it helps to be reminded so that you can be very conscious of your decisions at the poker table...

Ok thanks for the reply. I must have TAG wrong then..

A question though for you.

People say if pot odds are giving you good odds on calling then I should be calling with any two cards in SB or even late position if noones raised the pot and have lots of callers thus giving you 7/1 odds or more to call. Isn't it worth a call as you might hit the nuts?

Also, raising on the button even with quite crappy hands isn't that a good idea? I find a lot folding if you do.

Sorry, I forgot I added a lot of stats to the general tab, but I did want to see your three bet %. It's actually higher than I thought it would be, but it should be a few points higher. So for the most part we need to tighten up your range, bring your VP$IP down and your PFR up. An easy way to do that is to think, if I wont raise with this hand, I'm not going to limp. Also, when you are in late position you need to three bet more instead of flat calling raises.

Your next session try to not call a raise unless you are entering a multiway pot with a PP or suited connectors. If you don't have a PP or SC, either three bet or fold.

Right now, Any time Tuesday and Wednesdays are good for doing sweat sessions, let me know.

While it's true that you have great pot odds, the chances of you hitting two pair with unpaired hole cards is something around 25:1. When you do hit, since you're out of position, when you do hit, you'll have a more difficult time extracting value than you would if you were in position. Also, the times you flop a mediocre hand, like when you have J4 on a J84 board, or Q7 on a AQ9 board, you're gonna lose a lot of money in these spots. I know it seems like I'm generalizing when I say this, but you'll either win a small pot or lose a big one in situations like these. So even though your pot odds are good, there are soo many other factors working against you.

yup, I definitely agree, that's why I said this: blind stealing is a crucial crucial part of a TAG's strategy.

We need to think about our position too. From the SB we have the worst possible position when the flop comes. You're playing 2nl, it takes all the tricks and moves you can make away. So no, the 7/1 odds aren't enough, you're not going to hit a hand often enough.

Are you talking about raising from the button to just steal the blinds? Yes that's profitable as long as the blinds fold to steals. You should be stealing every chance you get, your steal % is only 18%. You should be stealing like twice as much. If it's possible at 2nl, I'm not sure how much they will play back. Like everything, you need to balance it out and if the blinds realize you are stealing every hand and start to play back at you, then you need to adjust.

If you are talking about a bunch of limpers in front of you and raising from the button to steal all the limps. Yes that can be profitable too, as long as you are getting folds. I just don't know how much people fold at 2nl. If they are folding then the play is profitable, if they aren't then you would need to adjust your range while making that play.

I think what you need to focus on now is tightening up your range. And raising or folding more, you need to do less calling.