Ok, 6 players left. You get A-8 in the BB, the button limps, SB folds, you check. No flushes are of concern. The button has played weak for the most part.
Flop: 9-A-8 Turn: 8 River: 2
P1 ~1500
P2 ~350
P3 ~675
P4 - Button ~2400
P5 - SB ~4500
P6 - BB ~4075
On the flop, you lead out for one BB (200). Get called.
On the turn, you check. The button bets 500. I call.
On the river, I bet 750. Get raised all in. I call. And... turns over a pair of aces.
Could anyone get away from a turned full house?
Honestly.. I dont know if I could have got away from that.
BUT
The button limped!!
If everyone else folds to the button why would he limp?
Isnt that the buttons god given right to steal the blinds?
So why isnt he stealing? It kinda sends out the message that he has a really good hand and wants to see some kind of payoff for it.
The flop comes 9-A-8.
You have 2 pair but you have no idea at this point of what the button has... but it seems to be a big hand.
So instead of the small raise what about say 500 on the flop?
You say he has played weak so far so if he calls.. you have to be thinking trips at least. No flush on. maybe AK, AQ, TJ, JQ? maybe A9???
But calling the raise lets you know where you stand.
Now the turn comes 8. You hold one and there has already been one on the flop. So you can eliminate trip 8's
That leaves only trip 9's or trip A's ora draw to a straight with TJ or JQ
So which of these hands would he likely min raise the flop with? AA, 99, TJ or JQ (the drawing hands were sort of removed by the raise anyway.. he has a hand here and now.. and its bigger than a pair!)
AA? yes he wants to get paid off.
99 possibly ????
TJ, JQ, A9.. its a raise preflop surely to steal the blinds.
Infact the 200 raise makes it too cheap for drawing hands like TJ and JQ and until the mirical 8 came up on the turn you were virtually dead to a straight draw.
But OK you want to get paid offso you let him draw.. but then the 500 raise after the turn just seems to indicate great strength from him but you dont really know how to interpret it as its so far into the board.
Yes I think a bigger raise on the flop is in order in these situations. One that will make him stop and think if he has nothing and yet tell you volumes by his call.
BTW im not so sure I would have evaluated it as well whilst playing myself but looking at it in retrospect it seems fairly logical that he had something like AA