WSOP ME predictions

Well, with the current climate of US poker players and the online bedlam, there is one aspect I haven't seen any mention of yet. The WSOP ME, and to a lesser extent all the events, was powered in huge thrust by the many online players who satellited in. Certainly no Americans will be qualifying in via sites, and there are scant few willing to toss in $10K to play. The satellites hosted by Harrah's or other casinos will hardly come close to replacing the thousands who entered online. Sure, there will still be the odd and end PS, FTP, etc. satellite qualifier from abroad, but what predictions do you cast regarding this year's WSOP ME. How many players fewer, will this change the Nov. setup, what are the pros' chances of winning, how many days will play last?

My predictions? Well, last year there were 7319 entrants. I expect more than a 50% cut. 3000, at best. It wouldn't surprise me at all though to see fewer than 2000. The field's massive size allowed last year to run 4 day-1's, 2 day-2's, and over a week of play before the November 9 was finalized. I expect 4-5 days of play total, with maybe 2 day-1's. As far as the November setup, I don't see that changing, the emphasis is mostly for hyping the event which hasn't changed. The higher concentration of pros this year means we should expect tables dominated by them, and likely one to win. However, the commercial support by FTP and PS should die down once they stop seeing profits from airing them in the US (they certainly won't continue to run the adds if people can't move to play in their real money games), so that lack of advertising revenue could push the Nov. 9 back into July despite the likely star studded field. We'll just have to see.

I still think the field will be over 5000.

It won't be a 50% cut, I agree with Oz that it will be around 5k.

Yea - I think 4000-5000 is a good estimate. Some US players have already won packages and those will still be honored.

You still have time to up the numbers by 1 more Deb! I know you're already going to be out there

Oz and others are spot on with about 5000. Last year of those 7319, only about 2000 came from the big 3 sites.

I predict 7000+

I think there very well may be more this year because of the closing to US sites.

Stars only had 20-25% of its traffic from the US, and they are still running outside the US. They will be running sats for those people and sending them still.

The online qualifiers may drop a bit, but what about all the people in the US that were playing online? May is really close. One last hoorah before moving on to somewhere or something else.

I think they will migrate to Vegas at last for the series now since most of online has shut down.

The problem is that a lot of those players may very well be like the rest of us and have a lot of their money that they may have been putting towards WSOP locked on on FTP/Stars or UB...

Where do you think the line is as to when they free up the money on pokerstars and FT. They announced it already, they just need to set up the process.

I wonder which will start refunding deposits first.

I think its 80% likely to be freed up by May 25, and 95% by the time the main event starts.

I think there is only a 75% chance of seeing money from Absolute/UB ever.

I say there will be between 5500 and 6000 people play in the ME. I think there will be a big increase in the smaller buy-in tournaments with people trying to win the $10,000 buy-in for the ME. I also have a prediction on the winner. I am pciking a new kid who has just started playing live tournaments but has won 3 circuit events since January. I can not find his name. But he is on a roll.

If you are talking about the guy that won 2 in tunica and the ME in St lewis circuit events Kiel something, he is pretty good, too bad he is a real jerk. I played with him last weekend and he was showing everyone he met his picture in Ante Up magazine. Granted it was just a few days after the St Lewis win, but not vary classy.

Him and 2 of his buddies tried to run over the table I was at.

highest buy-in he has won so far was $1600 .. others were $350 or so... still 3 rings in 2 months is really good.

Edit: BTW Dwight Pilgrim has 3 rings, but more over all cashes.

Ok now that Stars has started shipping money back to US players, how many do you think will be in the WSOP ME?

My number doesn't change really, maybe a couple hundred more. It was mainly based on the satellite's offered by the sites and not as much on the players with money tied up.

Likely to be somewhat fewer this year. Unfortunately, I have a family commitment and can`t go, otherwise I`d certainly be playing the online qualifiers this year, on the basis that it might be a little less competitive than usual. Still going to be plenty of entrants though, I reckon.

It will probably be more competitive with less fish who have won their way in online. (Not saying all of those are fish - but we know for a fact that a lot of them are nowhere near ready to play a tournament of that caliber).

American online players make up the bulk of the fish. Must be true, because Debi said so.

I agree, because they make up the majority of the turnout, therefore they would also make up the biggest majority of fish (and pros, and badasses, lol)

i agree, it will take a hit for sure, but not much more than 2K entrants

I really believe it depends on how much and when peeps can withdraw
from the Major 3 sites. If peeps get thier money out in time I still see a large
amount of staking happening for Internet regs who havent played WSOP( also partial own diming) to get thier 1st crack at it( and stakers to get a last chance at huge money). I suspect this year it will decrease a lot but there still is a large pool of "Poker" money out there if the Sites refund in time. Next year will be when it DRAMATICALLY decreases IMO
From what ive heard the Main Event will prob be around 4500 + -

How did people do on their predictions? I said 7000+ ITT

The official number is in at 6865, the third-largest Main Event ever.

Obv shipped my 5K+ prediction