Another probability question

If I am dealt suited cards (in Holdem), what is the probability that I will flop a flush? And what are the chances I will make one by the river?

I worked this out once via computer program blunt force. My memory says the result was 1 in 14 on the flop and 1 in 12 by the river. My intuition says this doesn't feel right, especially the small difference between the two. Can someone give us a definitive answer?

This seems to me to be a pretty important consideration in Holdem. e.g. when your stack is down to your last few BB and your looking for an opening to throw them all in before being blinded out. I've never seen this or anything similar in print.

Steve

Steve

Chances of flopping a flush if you are dealt suited cards is 0.84%. Chances of flopping a flush by the river if you are dealt suited cards is 6.40%.

Source for these is Phil Gordon's Little Green Book p271.#

I would say it's a wild shot to push AI in the hope of hitting a flush (and even then someone may have a bigger flush than you).

Steve922 said:

This seems to me to be a pretty important consideration in Holdem. e.g. when your stack is down to your last few BB and your looking for an opening to throw them all in before being blinded out. I've never seen this or anything similar in print.

Steve

Click to expand...

Yes, you are right.
In the book "The mathematics of poker" by Bill Chen and Jerod Ankenman there are "Jam or fold" and "Call or Fold" charts for shortstacks when headsup.
Your typicly Jam with a much wider aray of suited hands than their off suit counter part.
If you are the caller however, then its not at all the same.

The same goes for suited connectors (ie 89s is better to push with than 8Js, but when you are the caller, 8Js is the stronger of the two).