The AQ set up on Full Tilt

#1 6th December 2009, 8:51 PM

I have no intention to imply that Full Tilt or any other poker site is rigged, however I keep encountering this situation, over and over again. First, let me just assure you all I would not make a post like this unless I had some numbers to back my findings up, I understand the concept of variance and the basic maths behind the likeliness of certain starting hands being dealt, etc.

This all started when I took a monsterous beat holding AQ in a two way pot where the board came AQ5 rainbow, and my opponent caught his K on the river, holding AK, to go ahead after we ended up all in following the blank turn.

I started to be hesitant every time I would get AQ, and thats when I started noticing this trend kept popping up, I found that almost every time I was dealt AQ, if cards did end up getting flipped over I always faced an AK accross the table. In fact it was happening so frequently that I decided to keep notes and track the occurance. It was like clockwork, I would raise with my AQ, get reraised, and just out of curiousity (and the fact that I was playing well under my normal limits, I started to push all in, not because it was the right play but because I truly wanted to see if it could keep happening. Sure enough, AK, AK, the occasional 3 way pot but none the less someone with AK. A few times I got lucky and paired my queen or pulled the straight but none the less, out of the 81 times that I have held AQ, since I've kept track, 50 times I have shown down against AK, and I'm geussing that more of those occasions would have had the same result but I got my opponent to fold preflop or after blanking on the flop got my villain holding AK to fold.

To sum things up, be careful out there, this happens to my brother who plays on Tilt also, quite frequently.

Either way I am baffled by it...and I think I've seen enough of it to stop letting my curiousity get the best of me.

#2 6th December 2009, 10:10 PM

I, for one, am shocked that most people who call 4bet jams preflop have AK or better!

#3 6th December 2009, 10:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WVHillbilly

I, for one, am shocked that most people who call 4bet jams preflop have AK or better!

LOL WVH never lets me down.

#4 6th December 2009, 10:22 PM

Look I know I got slightly carried away, and maybe it was how I worded it. you dont think thats odd that there always seems to be an AQ dealt with an AK. I notice it with other people also, and when I have AK notice the sucker who got it in against me with AQ. It just seems to happen waaay waay too often, all I'm saying.

I mean look at it in the context of super turbo's even, you'll see it constantly. I play live alot too, and usually you can be somewhat excited if you get AQ suited, even off suit if you play it correctly. It's not a monster but its good. Not on full tilt, and I just know other people notice this too, they have to.

#5 7th December 2009, 12:12 AM

In your sample size of 81 there is no mention of A.Q vs A.A? My sample size of 2 earlier today:

A.A UTG (me)...bet 5x blind
A.Q SB...shoves all in (20x blind)
I call (have 5x SB's stack)
board = 8.8.x.Q.Q

Later another player has A.A against A.Q of above mentioned SB peep...A.A holds up this time & A.Q KOed.

So, there must not be a set up for A.Q vs A.A?

#6 7th December 2009, 1:42 AM

Well having numbers do help understand the RNG better. Some days I think they program it different. The RNG can be altered. I took a programming class, and I made a RNG. If the code is altered so is the outcome. Variance is what they make happen, not a bad luck, good luck thing. JMHO. X

#7 7th December 2009, 1:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by soncheebs

I have no intention to imply that Full Tilt or any other poker site is rigged, however I keep encountering this situation, over and over again. First, let me just assure you all I would not make a post like this unless I had some numbers to back my findings up, I understand the concept of variance and the basic maths behind the likeliness of certain starting hands being dealt, etc.

This all started when I took a monsterous beat holding AQ in a two way pot where the board came AQ5 rainbow, and my opponent caught his K on the river, holding AK, to go ahead after we ended up all in following the blank turn.

I started to be hesitant every time I would get AQ, and thats when I started noticing this trend kept popping up, I found that almost every time I was dealt AQ, if cards did end up getting flipped over I always faced an AK accross the table. In fact it was happening so frequently that I decided to keep notes and track the occurance. It was like clockwork, I would raise with my AQ, get reraised, and just out of curiousity (and the fact that I was playing well under my normal limits, I started to push all in, not because it was the right play but because I truly wanted to see if it could keep happening. Sure enough, AK, AK, the occasional 3 way pot but none the less someone with AK. A few times I got lucky and paired my queen or pulled the straight but none the less, out of the 81 times that I have held AQ, since I've kept track, 50 times I have shown down against AK, and I'm geussing that more of those occasions would have had the same result but I got my opponent to fold preflop or after blanking on the flop got my villain holding AK to fold.

To sum things up, be careful out there, this happens to my brother who plays on Tilt also, quite frequently.

Either way I am baffled by it...and I think I've seen enough of it to stop letting my curiousity get the best of me.

Don't think that is very rare, but it happens on all on-line sites...also, happens LIVE too, called varience. I know the RIVER kills and upsets people, but it is simply poker. It really does happen. GL, Wally

#8 7th December 2009, 1:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by XPOKERCHIC

Well having numbers do help understand the RNG better. Some days I think they program it different. The RNG can be altered. I took a programming class, and I made a RNG. If the code is altered so is the outcome. Variance is what they make happen, not a bad luck, good luck thing. JMHO. X

Hey X, The "RNG" used in most online poker rooms, and any other organizations that need TRULY random numbers,don't use the basic RNGs found in use in basic computer programming (these are actually pseudo RNGs). They actually use a technique that takes advantage of the temperature of the background microwave radiation in space and mouse movements, with very sophisticated algorithms to create a random deck.

I wrote one of the techies at UB or FT I think and got a very interesting dissertation regarding how they generate truly random deals.

I'll try to find it if you are interested and could forward it to you. If you are interested in RNGs you'll appreciate it.

#9 7th December 2009, 2:01 AM

I think some of you are missing Wv's point. If there's significant action pf and you're holding AQ, esp against a tight player, chances are that your hand is trash. Folding AQ to a 3bet or 4bet from a tight player is standard.

#10 7th December 2009, 2:06 AM

Well my point was actually that people are dumb but what Sly said is correct as well.

#11 7th December 2009, 2:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WVHillbilly

Well my point was actually that people are dumb but what Sly said is correct as well.

yes
u
wil have
to learn
how
to fold
not every
hands
a winner

#12 7th December 2009, 3:13 AM

There's a reason why the WPT calls the AQ the doomed hand. Not another hand has busted out players more than it.

#13 7th December 2009, 3:29 AM

OK I definately was misunderstood, WV I don't appreciate the negativity either, I was not complaining, just questioning. I know AQ is the doomed hand, and like I said I was enticing showdowns because I wanted a higher sample volume. So you can take that for what its worth but don't question my intelligence or chime in with your little snide remarks. I just hear all the time that people question the validity of the randomness, like how there always seems to be action cards and online "randomness" (not a word I know) compared to live. I just wanted to see if other people noticed this because yes while AQ gets slaughtered in jams against tight players (not rocket science) I don't think its very "random" that AK and AQ always come up together time after time. In fact I would encourage you all to keep track yourselves and I bet you'd find the same thing, over and over and over and over again.

#14 7th December 2009, 3:31 AM

I just don't see how you took the post like I was questioning why I am losing with AQ, because that couldnt be further from the case.

#15 7th December 2009, 3:42 AM

Do you not see how 4bet shoving skews your sample of matchups/narrows your showdowns to very strong hands like AK and big pairs, not worse ace hands? Why would you be surprised that AK shows up so often when you 4bet shove? AK is combinatorally as likely as AA, KK and QQ combined if you hold AQ.

#16 7th December 2009, 3:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by soncheebs

OK I definately was misunderstood, WV I don't appreciate the negativity either, I was not complaining, just questioning. I know AQ is the doomed hand, and like I said I was enticing showdowns because I wanted a higher sample volume. So you can take that for what its worth but don't question my intelligence or chime in with your little snide remarks. I just hear all the time that people question the validity of the randomness, like how there always seems to be action cards and online "randomness" (not a word I know) compared to live. I just wanted to see if other people noticed this because yes while AQ gets slaughtered in jams against tight players (not rocket science) I don't think its very "random" that AK and AQ always come up together time after time. In fact I would encourage you all to keep track yourselves and I bet you'd find the same thing, over and over and over and over again.

Nonsense. I didn't misunderstand you at all. You don't want to say online poker is "rigged" but it seems funny that they "always" have AK when you have AQ. Standard rigtard BS.

If you jam and they fold what does that do to your theory? Does that mean they probably folded AK or was the FTPs way of balancing the "I don't want to say rigged" RNG? Fact is that when you 4bet and someone calls/jams you're not seeing worse than AQ very often.

My final suggestion, stick around here and learn something. Stop talking and listen for a bit. You're not even half as good as you think. How do I know this? Because if you were you probably wouldn't have very many trials for your AQ experiment and you would certainly understand the results better than you currently do.

#17 7th December 2009, 5:34 AM

I agree, the situation you are creating with AQ is only going to cause hands that are beating you to be playing with you.

OP, think of the flip side. How many times do you have AA, KK or QQ and raise from any position, only to have everyone fold? Happens quite often.

#18 7th December 2009, 5:45 AM

LOL, yeah what they all said back there ^^.
The only person who is going to call you when you do that with AQ, is a person with a better hand, like AK, or once in a while an inexperienced player, or maybe someone on tilt. But very rarely will anyone with
anything less than AK call ur shoves like that, wouldn't you think?

Quote:

Originally Posted by soncheebs

none the less, out of the 81 times that I have held AQ, since I've kept track, 50 times I have shown down against AK, and I'm geussing that more of those occasions would have had the same result but I got my opponent to fold preflop or after blanking on the flop got my villain holding AK to fold.

No thats the point, they did not fold AK, they folded a weaker hand most likely.

..Also I dunno what position ur samples are from, but I have read strategy from pros that say they just open fold AQ from early position, which they do not say the same for AK..

#19 7th December 2009, 6:07 AM

it has happened to us all and i think that all poker rooms are rigged they probably have the probability of people tieing increased so they get money alot of money on the rake and give you guys your money back with a chuck of money gone.

#20 7th December 2009, 6:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NBA2K9ROCKETS

it has happened to us all and i think that all poker rooms are rigged they probably have the probability of people tieing increased so they get money alot of money on the rake and give you guys your money back with a chuck of money gone.

Quote:

Originally Posted by WVHillbilly

Well my point was actually that people are dumb ...

See.

#21 7th December 2009, 9:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NBA2K9ROCKETS

it has happened to us all and i think that all poker rooms are rigged they probably have the probability of people tieing increased so they get money alot of money on the rake and give you guys your money back with a chuck of money gone.

sigh...

#22 7th December 2009, 1:59 PM

Well i must be so lucky not to see AQ, that much.
Tho when i do have it i tend to win with it.

#23 7th December 2009, 4:21 PM

did i miss the memo?

#24 7th December 2009, 4:33 PM

ive read in many articles, where a lot of pros dislike a q, saying they have been put out of tourneys deep with that hand more than any other

#25 7th December 2009, 4:36 PM

lol. you just got beatch slapped by WVH. get some more experience man, ive been playin poker for over 14 years and still feel like a rookie as it has changed so much. play and dont play to collect stats or do and I hope im in the room with you.lol.peace

#26 7th December 2009, 4:40 PM

sites being rigged is a joke. not that there werent some neat hacks that happened but rigging is a joke. a RNG can generate so many different outcomes that its almost infinite., Some rooms use more sophisticated ones so the outcome is more"realistic". but whos to say if they are, no stats

#27 7th December 2009, 4:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NBA2K9ROCKETS

did i miss the memo?

Skim this: http://www.cardschat.com/f46/online-...igation-70058/ (http://www.cardschat.com/f46/online-poker-rigged-investigation-70058/)

#28 8th December 2009, 4:47 AM

Post a PokerTracker or HEM graph of your A/Q hands.
It'd be interesting to see how many times your A/Q came up against A/K in a 30k or so hand sample.

Trying to figure it out, each time you have A/Q I figure that each opponent has a 1 in 87.5 chance of having A/K.

Against 8 other players, that's one out of 11.

The problem is, you only see a showdown when he hits the board, and most of the time that means he has you beat.

#29 8th December 2009, 5:13 AM

Some people might get offended by some of these comments, like I initially was. The more I read through the responses though, I realized that I actually did gain something from this so I don't regret my post, even though apparently I am an idiot now on here and I suck at poker. Funny thing is this doesn't bother me, because I needed this so I could realize that this is just another example of how you can look at one single situation in poker a hundred different ways, and gain something from each experience. What is kind of ironic is that it wasn't the hundreds of trials of jamming with AQ, but the feedback from you guys after I posted about my idiotic experiment, that has taught me my biggest lesson for the week. Fold AQ more.

Lol thanks cardschat.

#30 8th December 2009, 5:40 AM

Nice.

fwiw I never said, nor do I think, you are and idiot. You seem like a reasonable guy who reached an unreasonable conclusion based on a faulty experiment. +1 to folding AQ more when you get 3bet.

#31 8th December 2009, 6:06 AM

I honestly don't see how you can justify a 4bet shove with AQ, especially if it puts you all in or for most of your stack. Why is this even a discussion again?

#32 8th December 2009, 7:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nc_royals

There's a reason why the WPT calls the AQ the doomed hand. Not another hand has busted out players more than it.

Ya know, it's funny, I was looking at my stats the other day. AQ, believe it or not, is a hole for me. At least AQo. If I just folded every AQ I'd ever been dealt, I'd double my win rate. Yes, obviously I'm screwing something up badly. I'm working on that. ;-) Actually, I noticed last night, so made a point of being less stupid with AQ today and made 0.65 BB/hand with AQs and 1.86 BB/hand with AQo today. Maybe I got that one patched. :

Anyway, my stats from Full Tilt 2nl, 5nl, 10nl.

AQs: 72 (win 50, no play 2, lose* 30)
AQo: 181 times (win 84, no play 17, lose the rest).

* lose can mean I was in the blind and folded it

(Hmm...mental note, it's not that I lose with AQ, it's that I lose too much with it when I play and lose. My biggest loss is 3x my biggest win with it, but one was 5nl, one 10nl, so really 1.5x bigger.)

Poker Stove says AK vs AQ is 71.3/24.1/4.6

It's too late to crawl through the DB and see what hands I was actually up against, but just based on the above, I'm pretty confident it's not a hand that has me dominated most of the time. As stated above, when someone plays back aggressively, they tend to have something decent. It's selection bias.

RF

#33 8th December 2009, 7:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JLtrooper

I honestly don't see how you can justify a 4bet shove with AQ, especially if it puts you all in or for most of your stack. Why is this even a discussion again?

LOL,

Are you trying to get your posts up or are you too lazy to read and figure out this thread isnt about justifying AQ as a jam hand.

#34 8th December 2009, 8:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JLtrooper

I honestly don't see how you can justify a 4bet shove with AQ, especially if it puts you all in or for most of your stack. Why is this even a discussion again?

Just because I like being a dick...

You can 4-bet shove for 1 buy in with AQs profitably if your opponent 3-bets at a rate of 9% or more. And that 9% comes up more than people think in shorthanded & heads up situations.

#35 9th December 2009, 1:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by soncheebs

It was like clockwork, I would raise with my AQ, get reraised, and just out of curiousity (and the fact that I was playing well under my normal limits, I started to push all in, not because it was the right play but because I truly wanted to see if it could keep happening. Sure enough, AK, AK, the occasional 3 way pot but none the less someone with AK. A few times I got lucky and paired my queen or pulled the straight but none the less, out of the 81 times that I have held AQ, since I've kept track, 50 times I have shown down against AK, and I'm geussing that more of those occasions would have had the same result but I got my opponent to fold preflop or after blanking on the flop got my villain holding AK to fold.

To sum things up, be careful out there, this happens to my brother who plays on Tilt also, quite frequently.

Either way I am baffled by it...and I think I've seen enough of it to stop letting my curiousity get the best of me.

Sounds like it to me.

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