WSOP Main Event Betting: Who’s the Favorite?

5 min read

The World Series of Poker Main Event is down to 10 players, but who will win? Ahead of this year’s final table, we’ve got all the important stats, including the latest WSOP Main Event betting odds.

wsop final table
Who will win the WSOP Main Event? The stats and betting odds all point to Espen Jorstad (right) becoming the 2022 World Champion. (Image: WSOP/Rachel Kay Miller)

Picking the winner of the Main Event isn’t easy, even at this late stage. Over the years, we’ve seen players squander seemingly insurmountable chip leads. We’ve seen short stacks rise up. We’ve seen dark horses emerge from the shadows and ride off into the sunset with a bracelet.

The point we’re making, in case you hadn’t guessed, is that anything is possible. Anyone with chips can win, which is why the finale will make for compelling viewing. However, as tough as it is to pick a winner, it hasn’t stopped people from trying.

WSOP Main Event stacks and statistics

As soon as the unofficial final table of 10 was set on Thursday, the number crunchers and tipsters got to work. Within hours, predictions were popping up on every social media platform. So, in the interest of speculation and entertainment, here’s how the WSOP Main Event betting markets are shaping up.

2022 WSOP Main Event Payouts
First place $10 million
Second place $6 million
Third place $4 million
Fourth place $3 million
Fifth place $2.25 million
Sixth place $1.75 million
Seventh place $1.35 million
Eighth place $1.075 million
Ninth place $850,675
10th place $675,000

Before we dive into the latest WSOP betting odds, let’s start with the basics. Heading into the final sessions, the chip counts are as follows:

2022 WSOP Main Event Final Table Chip Counts
Espen Jorstad Seat 9 83,200,000
Mathew Su Seat 5 83,200,000
Matija Dobric Seat 3 68,650,000
Aaron Duczak Seat 8 56,000,000
John Eames Seat 6 54,950,000
Adrian Attenborough Seat 2 50,800,000
Michael Duek Seat 4 49,775,000
Jeffrey Farnes Seat 7 35,350,000
Asher Conniff Seat 10 24,400,000
Philippe Souki Seat 1 13,500,000

Using stacks as a starting point is great, but stacks don’t tell us the whole story. Experienced poker players will base their decisions on a variety of factors, one of which is their equity in the tournament.

WSOP Main Event ICM calculations

Using the Independent Chip Model (ICM), players can determine what their stack is worth (as a dollar amount) based on their probability of winning and the prizes left to win. To put it another way, ICM is the share of a prize pool everyone would get if the tournament ended now and payouts were based on chip counts.

ICM calculations aren’t set in stone. The figures are theoretical, but they’re a useful way of judging equity and, in turn, the strategy a player might use. For example, a player with a lot of equity might decide it’s best to play aggressively.

A player’s strategy shouldn’t be based on ICM alone, however. The fact remains, however, that ICM calculations are a useful way of assessing a final table lineup. With that being said, here are the numbers for this year’s Main Event final table.

2022 WSOP Main Event Final Table ICM Calculations
Espen Jorstad Seat 9 $4,127,600
Mathew Su Seat 5 $4,127,600
Matija Dobric Seat 3 $3,718,391
Aaron Duczak Seat 8 $3,320,032
John Eames Seat 6 $3,284,876
Adrian Attenborough Seat 2 $3,142,417
Micheal Duek Seat 4 $3,106,333
Jeffrey Farnes Seat 7 $2,554,868
Asher Conniff Seat 10 $2,068,304
Philippe Souki Seat 1 $1,500,250

So, we now know the chip counts and each player’s ICM calculations. That just leaves the WSOP betting odds.

Any seasoned sports bettor will tell you that bookmakers don’t always get it right. In fact, they can miss the mark by a wide margin. However, they do consider a variety of variables before creating a betting hierarchy.

WSOP Main Event betting odds

WPT and EPT winner Mike McDonald tweeted his thoughts on the final 10. He has experience setting odds for tournaments as the creator of the now defunct PokerShares. Although he’s not taking bets this year, McDonald has Espen Jorstad and Matthew Su as the joint favorites.

One bookmaker that is offering odds and taking bets is Partypoker. Along with its sister sportsbook, bwin, Partypoker has the following betting lines for the 2022 WSOP Main Event.

2022 WSOP Main Event Final Table Betting Odds
Espen Jorstad Seat 9 +200 (2/1)
Mathew Su Seat 5 +250 (5/2)
Matija Dobric Seat 3 +450 (9/2)
Adrian Attenborough Seat 8 +650 (13/2)
John Eames Seat 6 +750 (15/2)
Aaron Duczak Seat 2 +1200 (12/1)
Michael Duek Seat 4 +1600 (16/1)
Jeffrey Farnes Seat 7 +2000 (20/1)
Asher Conniff Seat 10 +2000 (20/1)
Philippe Souki Seat 1 +3300 (33/1)

So, that’s how the numbers stack up for this year’s Main Event finale. We’re not telling you to place a bet. We’re not even giving you our opinion on who will win or saying it’s a good idea to wager some money.

But, if you follow the numbers, Jorstad is the betting favorite. Does that mean he’ll win? No, but it’s something worth considering if you’re going to gamble on the 2022 WSOP Main Event.

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