Doug Polk had a huge lead throughout much of the session on Friday, but Daniel Negreanu fought back, only to end up suffering another loss. In doing so, his chances of winning the overall match are slowly dwindling away.
With just over 4,000 hands left to go out of 25,000, it would take nothing short of a miracle for Negreanu to win the contest at this point. He is now down so far that he’d need to win about one small blind every hand, on average, to pull this thing out. We aren’t saying that it’s impossible or that he should just give up, but you must consider the probabilities here.
As Doyle Brunson famously uttered on the Poker After Dark intro, “there’s an old saying in poker, the only thing you need to play this game is a chip and a chair, but to sit down and win against the best, you need a whole lot more.”
Negreanu’s in that chip and a chair mentality, but he’s going to, as Doyle proclaims, need a whole lot more than luck to beat one of the best heads-up No-Limit Hold’em players at this point in the game. He’s down 19 buy-ins after Friday’s session, and the clock is ticking.
Polk Shutting the Window
Early on in Friday’s session — Day 34 of the $200/$400 heads-up No-Limit Hold’em challenge — Polk dominated. He repeatedly fired off large bets on the river and got a fold. Whether he had the goods in those hands or not (his cards weren’t exposed) is irrelevant because he scooped the pots. He also caught his fair share of big hands.
Polk continues to have success betting big on the river when Negreanu shows weakness by checking in position on the turn. Negreanu, however, did battle back, and even took the lead late in the grueling, five-hour session. But a cruel river card in the final hand was a killer for the GGPoker ambassador.
Negreanu three-bet pre-flop with 8-4 suited and then continuation bet bluffed the A-10-3 flop. He couldn’t get Polk to fold, but did pick up a 4 on the turn before firing another $12,300 into the pot, which again didn’t force Polk off the hand.
The 8 on the river appeared to be a beautiful card for “DNegs,” so he bet the size of the pot, just under $37,000 and Polk quickly called with A-8 for a better two-pair. The cooler made Negreanu want to call it quits for the day. He finished the session down about $35,000, and now trails by more than $730,000 with less than 5,000 hands remaining.
Play will resume in the grudge match Monday at 2:30 pm PT.