Daniel Negreanu continues to believe his heater is coming — eventually. But, after his most recent session against Doug Polk, he’s going to need more than just a heater to ever catch up.
Both players deposited $1 million into their WSOP.com accounts prior to the start of their grudge match and it’s beginning to seem like that might not be near enough for Negreanu. In fact, his player account should already be down to barely more than $300,000.
Negreanu currently has two things working against him. Based on all-in expected value, he’s running bad; he said in Monday’s post-game interview on the GGPoker YouTube channel that he’s constantly missing draws. But, he’s also getting outclassed by a heads-up specialist who’s mixing up his bet sizes and often getting Negreanu to call him down when he has the goods.
Sure, Negreanu is picking off many bluffs, often when facing large-sized bets, but he’s also paying Polk off frequently with the worst hand. If you run bad and get out-played, it’s really tough to win at poker, as Negreanu is learning in this challenge.
Brutal Session for Negreanu
Entering Day 16, Negreanu had won three straight sessions, but only for a combined $77,000 profit. Polk erased that two buy-in swing within a matter of moments on Monday and then, for good measure, tacked another $100,000 onto his bankroll.
Polk and Negreanu played for more than four hours on Monday. During that time, 824 hands were dealt on the WSOP.com client at $200/$400 stakes. In the end, Polk booked a $160,349 win, bringing his overall profit up to $674,000 (the official tally has yet to be released). Polk and Negreanu have now completed 7,921 hands.
It’s becoming increasingly unlikely this match will go the full 25,000 hands. At the 12,500-hand mark, the losing player has the option to quit without penalty or to play another 12,500 hands. Polk is currently on pace to be up by $1.1 million at the midway point. If that trend continues, Negreanu would have little incentive to continue playing.
But, perhaps, the trend will reverse in the other direction before long. Negreanu said in his post-game interview on Monday that he feels a heater coming.
“I felt good, I felt like I was playing well,” Negreanu said following the 16th session. “But the big disconnect for me has been, just like having a pair and a flush draw, and by the river having more. I’ve just missed a lot of draws.”
Negreanu will try to hit more draws and win some bigger pots on Wednesday at 2:30 pm PT, and then again Thursday and Friday. The poker pros will then take a break next week due to the WSOP Main Event.
