Can you win a tourney without luck?

frank174

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rather be lucky then good because in tournament play say 200 in the field your going to get into at least a dozen coin flips say 10's against ace face you gotta win these.Thats what great about poker 1 game you get it all in with the 10's and they hold you feel great and feel you played the hand great 20 minutes later same situation but your 10's got run over, to win tournaments you gotta run good:)
 
Polytarp

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I'll frame it this way, how many free roll games in ACR must you play so that on average you will make it into the payouts? My average is about 4-8 games. To make it to the final table becomes an area of diminishing returns due to the time invested. I would rather pick a game where I have notes on players and have Poker Tracked them and make it into the cash within an hour than play 3 hours for a dollar or two more. Those few pennies can be leveraged more quickly into bigger payouts ...and so on.....BUT you need to earn those pennies first. Good luck and bad luck will play along with you so diversify your gaming portfolio (aka insurance) and use the Kelly criterion.
 
wagon596

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I'd vote that you have to some luck somewhere in a tournament to get into the position to win it.
 
Tvorets

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Without luck MTT tournament will not win.
 
F

fundiver199

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The good news is this is basically the case in every tournament with large player pools. The blinds will catch up to most of the fields stacks and you will find yourself in 50/50 spots and someones gotta lose, sometimes its gonna be you. The difference with freerolls is your fold equity (meaning someone folding to your raise or shove) is way lower. You are going to find someone to play with you way more often which means your going to lose more often.


Freerolls are brutal and other than CC freerolls (or playing for ACR FR leaderboard) I would suggest getting out of them as soon as possible. Simply playing for .50c will increase your fold equity in those spots and you will see a difference as long as your are playing solid poker. Little wordy hold it helps.

That is exactly the point. I think, a lot of people feel, that all-in preflop poker is just "bingo". But its a natural part of tournaments, that can not be avoided. Its extremely rare, that you can win a tournament without being all in several times and having to win those situations. Tournaments involve gambling, but that does not mean, its "bingo". The skill lie in getting it in correctly, so that you give yourself the best chance of winning.

As for freerools they are usually hyper turbos, which mean, that stacks get extremely short after a while. This is not very usefull practice for tournaments with a more reasonable structure, but there is still skill involved.

And one of the biggest mistakes, I see people make in freerolls, is not getting it in often enough. I see people folding from BB, when 60% of their stack is in the pot already. This makes no sense at all. The rest of their stack is going in on the next hand anyway, so why not just go with the hand, they have now, so that if they win, they are sitting on a much bigger stack.

Other times people limp into the pot investing 40% of their stack, which again makes no sense. When you are this short, you just have to go with it, and if you go broke, thats fine. Then you can spend you time on something better than the freeroll. But many people dont think like that. They are desperately trying to avoid being all in and "gambling" for their tournament life.
 
tehb1987

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NOT think that without luck would cost. Enough to play a few MTT's to understand it. No matter how strong the hand is there is a chance to lose it. In some cases AA is not even a panacea.
 
Poker_Mike

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I might say something that sounds mean but it not intended to be. So be nice on responding.

I only been playing the ACR free rolls since they returned. This weekend was the most played free rolls other than the daily ones. I'm finding it difficult finishing. I have the one winner take all and a few in the money but not really happy with the outcomes.

These bigger prize tourneys i really just focused on the tables and nothing else. No multi tasking nothing. I find after about 15 minutes i have most of you pegged at the table. Your ranges and pretty much your betting habits. A few of you know because I'm the thorn in your butt after about 15 minutes. I chip away and seem to get moved to another table after a nice hand is won. Then i start all over again unless i have notes from past games.

This might be one of my problems. I find most the play on these free rolls very soft. I seem to chip up nicely then make a great call almost perfect in your range usually post flop. Only to get rivered ever so often. And the sets, I missed every mining of them today but one. That ended up being second best of a three way of sets. Flop landed set for three and my kings. Pocket aces pushed and of coarse we all followed only to have a ace hit the river. That's not bad luck that's insane. And it usually comes in threes. Then I'm 10 bb or less and in push or fold mode only to get beat by the dumbest hands. Like my a,k suited went all in and always one player who calls and has like today q,5 off. Hits his five on the river. Happens all the time. Are they lucky or am i unlucky?

The point of this was how can you play on point and not say that luck isn't more important than skill in a tourney. Long run skill may out last but sure seems to kicking my butt. it be different if i was out played or made a bad decision and it cost me. This is flat out thank god somehow i won stuff that seems a bit habitual. No this isn't a bad beat rant. Can you win a tourney without luck prevailing? Am i truly a unluc


To win any tournament you need luck.

But, you can avoid risk in a lot of high variance situations.

Once you are deep in any tournament (even freerolls) the high risk high variance players have washed themselves out. You will notice that the skill level in play is different.

Good luck !
 
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valanddon

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luck is part of the game, but when someone goes all in with 2 7 and wins that is not luck, that is just insane.
 
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bigpappa325

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The short answer to your question is no and without reading any of the responses you have received already I'm sure its one you have heard before, but in my attempt to be more involved with this site I will stat my case anyway.

First off they are freerolls most people there are poor players or extreme micro grinders and other than flopping huge over and over (which happens) you are going to have to win flips deep in tournaments and even find yourself in spots with inferior players that just get lucky against your good play, that is the bad news....

The good news is this is basically the case in every tournament with large player pools. The blinds will catch up to most of the fields stacks and you will find yourself in 50/50 spots and someones gotta lose, sometimes its gonna be you. The difference with freerolls is your fold equity (meaning someone folding to your raise or shove) is way lower. You are going to find someone to play with you way more often which means your going to lose more often.

Freerolls are brutal and other than CC freerolls (or playing for ACR FR leaderboard) I would suggest getting out of them as soon as possible. Simply playing for .50c will increase your fold equity in those spots and you will see a difference as long as your are playing solid poker. Little wordy hold it helps.
Sorry i wasn't clear. I only been playing the CC free rolls and the 150 gtd free roll. I normally make ITM even on Mondays and Wednesdays when im gone most of the first hour of the tourney. I just find online players depend on getting lucky rather than good mathematical decision. Really starting to question online period.

Ive been sick three weeks. As guess as you get older its harder to bounce back. But thats three weeks of no live play. Its really bummed me out. The increase play online due to situation has been very disappointing at best. I know many of you think i look at stats to much. But that really tells you everything. After yesterday im going to have my son filter what percent of wins i have with two pair. Two pair have won me a lot of money in live play. :icon_stud
 
demibar

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You can't be lucky in a long term or to have bad beat for long term.Of course luck is needed let's be honest, but this part you have to manage by your strategy and don't be in tilt.About freerools... there are many players most of them starters, the prizes are low .In action you can't predict how they will respond to your bettings .Lots of raisons make them call with garbage for example they could be in tilt or they get bored maybe they want to leave from the table.Size of betting is important, you have to get rid some of "fishes" .
 
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freestocks

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Of course you need luck, but most are coin flips. How lucky do you need to be?
 
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bigpappa325

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You can't be lucky in a long term or to have bad beat for long term.Of course luck is needed let's be honest, but this part you have to manage by your strategy and don't be in tilt.About freerools... there are many players most of them starters, the prizes are low .In action you can't predict how they will respond to your bettings .Lots of raisons make them call with garbage for example they could be in tilt or they get bored maybe they want to leave from the table.Size of betting is important, you have to get rid some of "fishes" .
this is why im starting late in tourney. i dont mind quarter of my chips gone to avoid the any two cards will do. About thirty minutes things slow down.
 
LJG23

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Sounds like you are just in a base spot of variance. You seem to have a decent idea of what to do and when to do it and when that doesn't work over and over day after day it's usually just unlucky. Being an unlucky good player is the same or worse than a bad player getting lucky. Stay your course keep noting who gets it in weak and keep attacking the cards will even out eventually.


Sorry i wasn't clear. I only been playing the CC free rolls and the 150 gtd free roll. I normally make ITM even on Mondays and Wednesdays when im gone most of the first hour of the tourney. I just find online players depend on getting lucky rather than good mathematical decision. Really starting to question online period.

Ive been sick three weeks. As guess as you get older its harder to bounce back. But thats three weeks of no live play. Its really bummed me out. The increase play online due to situation has been very disappointing at best. I know many of you think i look at stats to much. But that really tells you everything. After yesterday im going to have my son filter what percent of wins i have with two pair. Two pair have won me a lot of money in live play. :icon_stud
 
VITOS

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Take a simple question: Is it possible without luck, on one pure skill to win a single tournament? The answer is unequivocal-NO. Is it possible to win a single tournament on luck alone? The answer is obvious-YES! And there are plenty of examples of this, from Jimmy gold at the 2006 wsop to fish wins at the Sunday Million. When the guy playing tournaments from 10 cents to $1 decided to take a chance, went to the satellite for$ 2 with rebuy (at this point he apparently risked all his bankroll), won it, got a ticket to Sunday Million and eventually beat more than 8000 players! $250,000! Bring it!!! And there are plenty of examples.
One conclusion - if luck hug you with my wings and with you to the end, victory is guaranteed.
 
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it depends on the entrants, but if you Play a Tournament with 1.000+ you Need luck to win it. you can't win it just because you are better than everyone else because your Aces still have a 20% Chance to lose.


you Need skill for a Deep run and luck to win it

I agree with this. If the field is under 700 or so, you can generally make the money if you avoid showdowns, except when pretty sure you have the best hand, and you keep a tight image--so that people don't mess with you, draw you into a showdown with a weak hand and then suck out on you. I think you can money almost half the time when you are getting good hands as often as you should and not having long droughts.
 
posztulatum

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The most of man don't know what is the luck exactly. Not only in a casino or and "luck game".... someone doesn't have enough responsibility in the past and he created the luck like something what can control the men's life. The men started use this thing, the "luck" like cause.... men who also couldn't have enough responsibility.

The luck is a higher state of knowledge only.
 
A

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Without luck winning a tournament is impossible. Especially in large tournament fields. But whether large or small tournament fields, at some point there is always a coin flip situation where a hand must hold. This is inevitable if you want to win a tournament.

You can play poker for 8 hours without making a mistake, there are still two tables left and then you lose with AA vs KK. And the guy with the KK wins the tournament. Thats poker!
 
Rob Hobson

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Luck is always around in some degree. There's no zero luck.
 
cwdignus

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I've seen Phill Ivey say that if it wasn't for the luck factor, he wouldn't lose to anyone ... with this statement we can come to the conclusion that luck really has a fundamental weight in the game, of course we should not give our game to luck. because poker is a mix of skill and luck too
 
SightUnseen

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Better to be lucky than good! ;)
 
Tr0pik

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50% lucky and 50% skill in pokerstars 888poker and partypoker.. smaller poker room where i play GreySnowPoker is a poker skill, lucky is a small %.. i think
 
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You need luck. You need to catch cards in your hand and on the board. The skill comes in knowing the math, knowing position, knowing your opponents, and making smart decisions to put yourself in the best possible place to win.

Luck percentages? Most say 20-40% I don't care. I just want to make the most of my two hole cards and hope for some luck when I NEED it.
 
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If you look at most broadcasted tournaments or read the live hand histories, then you will see that the winner had multiple "lucky" moments. So no, luck plays a factor in winning a tournament. If it was like chess, then yes you can win without luck.
 
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