Are you a winning freeroll player?

Matt_Burns88

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Playing cash tables and buy-in tournaments makes it easy to know if you are a winning player or a losing one, all you have to do is look at what happens to your bankroll.
But how about freerolls? There is no buy-in so the worst you could do is break even, which makes the vast majority of us winning players. We even build bankrolls out of freeroll winnings, and some of us wonder if they are ready for the buy-in tournaments.

Here is an idea about how to assess what kind of player you are using the Cardschat freerolls:
Imagine a buy-in of $1 for ACR/BCP and Intertops freerolls, and $2 for the BOL/SB ones (I know that for the ACR/BCP it should be a little smaller because the field is 110-140 players, but considering that we don't count the added rake on any of the tournament and for the sake of easy calculation, I think it's a good approximation).
Double your approximate number of BOL/SB freerolls you've played and add that to the number of ACR/BCP and Intertops freerolls. Subtract the obtained number from the amount on dollars you've won playing those freerolls. If you obtain a positive result you are winning player, a negative result means you are a losing player, and anything close to zero makes you a break even player.

Non US players who play PS for example will need to approximate the buy in by dividing the prize amount plus 10% by the average number of players (so for a $100 freeroll with 300 entries, the imaginary buy-in would be 33 cents).

Example: If you are a CC FC regular, playing 400 ACR/BCP and Intertops freerolls and 100 BOL/SB freerolls a year, you need to make at least $600 to consider yourself a break even player, and more than $600 to consider trying buy-in MTTs without negative expectation.

PS: I came up with the above idea trying to assess my own performance, and thought it might be helpful to other fellow CC members. Please let me know what you think, and if you find it to be flawed or inaccurate don't be shy and tell me why. Good luck at the tables!

Thanks for posting. This is something I have never considered before. I have many freeroll cashes, but never thought to compare them to my virtual buy-in; I simply considered free money. I will track this more closely for a while and see how I get on.
 
zinzir

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This is an interesting way of looking at things which I hadnt before but I have a big problem with this and that is since it is a freeroll there are X number of payers every tournament that really don't give a damn. They will take monster risks that if they played $1 or $2 buy in tournaments they would never take. This, if you are a tight player, will skew your results as your results in freerolls will look way better than they would if you really played $1 or $2 buy ins. Its not quite like this but in a way similar to saying I could play ply money tournaments and do the same and count the play money winnings as winnings against a fake buy in amount for that tournament. We all know that play money games play with 90/5 and 80/10 players for their stats meaning you could and should get great results in those if you just play tight, and bet big made hands. I just think to know whether you are a winning player or not you really need to play buy in tournaments and see if you win at them given that your sample size is large enough. Again, I think this is interesting idea and allows you to set goals during freerolls which is always good but I don't think it will really tell you if you are a winning player or not.

I totally agree that it is harder to be a winning buy-in MTT player than a winning freeroll player, that's exactly why in my opinion you need to be a winning freeroll player before moving to buy-in tournaments.
Playing only freerolls and watching your bankroll grow is not enough, because if you play consistently your bankroll will grow as a losing player as well.
For example, since the first of this month, I have played 20 CC ACR and BOL freerolls, and won a total of $13.90
The problem is that I had a starting equity in those freerolls (the amount CC payed on my behalf) of exactly $18.04.
According to my formula, I am a losing freeroll player with a net loss of $4.14
So am I ready to move to buy-in tournaments? No, in my opinion, because if I can't even beat the freerolls, why should I believe that I could beat the buy-in MTT's which are even harder?
On the other hand, since you joined the freeroll club your win rate according to the money LB is more than double my own, which makes you a winning freeroll player beyond any doubt. Does that mean you are a winning buy-in MTT player as well? No, it doesn't, but it means you could at least give buy-ins a try hoping you are already good enough for those, while in my case the same move would be simply naive to say the least.
 
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I totally agree that it is harder to be a winning buy-in MTT player than a winning freeroll player, that's exactly why in my opinion you need to be a winning freeroll player before moving to buy-in tournaments.
Playing only freerolls and watching your bankroll grow is not enough, because if you play consistently your bankroll will grow as a losing player as well.
For example, since the first of this month, I have played 20 CC ACR and BOL freerolls, and won a total of $13.90
The problem is that I had a starting equity in those freerolls (the amount CC payed on my behalf) of exactly $18.04.
According to my formula, I am a losing freeroll player with a net loss of $4.14
So am I ready to move to buy-in tournaments? No, in my opinion, because if I can't even beat the freerolls, why should I believe that I could beat the buy-in MTT's which are even harder?
On the other hand, since you joined the freeroll club your win rate according to the money LB is more than double my own, which makes you a winning freeroll player beyond any doubt. Does that mean you are a winning buy-in MTT player as well? No, it doesn't, but it means you could at least give buy-ins a try hoping you are already good enough for those, while in my case the same move would be simply naive to say the least.


Well I think maybe then you need to adjust something in the freeroll cost because you do well at freerolls. Lets take ACR CC freerolls for example. You are treating those with a $1 buy in or maybe $1.10 to simulate rake. If it is $1.10 then out of 130 or so who enter you have to finish at least 27th to break even. You could finish 18th and only make 30 cents in this scenario. If this were the case in real terms I would not play the tournament. I would not play a tournament where I have to beat roughly 80% just to break even and could get 9th place only a little more than double my money. I know in most tourneys you have to beat over 80% to break even but at least when you do that and cash you usually double your money or more and not just break even. Maybe CC freerolls on ACR should be counted at 55 cents or something like that based on min payouts. Not sure what the number should actually be.
 
zinzir

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Well I think maybe then you need to adjust something in the freeroll cost because you do well at freerolls. Lets take ACR CC freerolls for example. You are treating those with a $1 buy in or maybe $1.10 to simulate rake. If it is $1.10 then out of 130 or so who enter you have to finish at least 27th to break even. You could finish 18th and only make 30 cents in this scenario. If this were the case in real terms I would not play the tournament. I would not play a tournament where I have to beat roughly 80% just to break even and could get 9th place only a little more than double my money. I know in most tourneys you have to beat over 80% to break even but at least when you do that and cash you usually double your money or more and not just break even. Maybe CC freerolls on ACR should be counted at 55 cents or something like that based on min payouts. Not sure what the number should actually be.


Okay, you have obviously read only my OP, which was intended as a retrospective way to estimate virtual buy-ins if you don't know how many players actually participated in those freerolls. Please read my other posts in this thread, especially the second post for examples of how I calculate the buy-ins for the freerolls where the number of participants is known.
My June calculations were made down to one tenth of a cent.

Fun fact: If the last week's two SB/BOL tournaments were not downgraded to $100 prize pool, the total calculated buy-ins for the 20 freerolls in the month of June thus far would have been $20.04, which proves the previous the $2/$1 estimation freakishly accurate :)
 

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300HPGOD

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Okay, you have obviously read only my OP, which was intended as a retrospective way to estimate virtual buy-ins if you don't know how many players actually participated in those freerolls. Please read my other posts in this thread, especially the second post for examples of how I calculate the buy-ins for the freerolls where the number of participants is known.
My June calculations were made down to one tenth of a cent:


I went back and read it and will still say something is wrong. I am not sure what to use to calculate it but if you are 3rd on the freeroll winnings list and still considered a losing player then something has to be off. I would assume MT Cashman who leads the money list and myself then are the only two winners? Something isnt right if you have only two winning players out of everyone. But I will leave it at that and say good idea to monetize freerolls and hope you get on the winning end.
 
Igorek1313

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I won a lot in the freeroll. I didn’t even count how many times. I am very glad that the players do not change. the game becomes much easier.
 
zinzir

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I went back and read it and will still say something is wrong. I am not sure what to use to calculate it but if you are 3rd on the freeroll winnings list and still considered a losing player then something has to be off. I would assume MT Cashman who leads the money list and myself then are the only two winners? Something isnt right if you have only two winning players out of everyone. But I will leave it at that and say good idea to monetize freerolls and hope you get on the winning end.


Okay, I have looked into that as well. Besides you, there are only 6 true freeroll winning players in the history of CC:
MTCashman
mtl mile end
Memphis Grind
Dailon Arroyo Blandon
DougPkrMonsta (he was already out of the Freeroll Club when I joined CC, but based on the maximum amount of time he could have possibly been playing and the amount of dollars he won, he must have been a true monster of a freeroll player)
TheNutz4You (winning player, possibly break even or even slightly losing one depending on how long it took him to join the Freeroll Club after he originally joined CC)

Three caveats to my above statement:
1. My estimation is based on the assumption that players became members of the Freeroll Club within months of joining CC, not years, and also have maintained FC membership. There could be other winning players who took a very long time to start posting and become members of the FC, or had long gaps where they lost their FC membership, which would artificially bring down their estimated win rate.
2. The estimation places players with a very long membership, like jaymfc, at a disadvantage because it is unlikely that 10 years ago there were as many CC freerolls available to be played, or that the prizes were the same as today.
3. Your win rate is based on the actual date you joined the FC because I happened to know it. Also, your sample size is small, so even though I very much respect your play and efficiency, it is still premature to include you in the same group with the all time CC poker greats :)
The above reality proves, in my opinion, not that my formula is inaccurate, but that being a true winning freeroll player is no easy task.

PS: I said I was a losing player for the month of June. Since the beginning of the year, I am a winning player with an estimated buy-in total of $182 and a total win of $317.
 
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thehangdude

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I was down my first two months back, but this month I am up (according to your formula). I am averaging just over $2 per day while investment is just under $1.50 per day.

But I look at freeroll winnings a bit differently. I use freerolls to improve my game as I build a bankroll to invest what I learned.
 
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Playing cash tables and buy-in tournaments makes it easy to know if you are a winning player or a losing one, all you have to do is look at what happens to your bankroll.
But how about freerolls? There is no buy-in so the worst you could do is break even, which makes the vast majority of us winning players. We even build bankrolls out of freeroll winnings, and some of us wonder if they are ready for the buy-in tournaments.

Here is an idea about how to assess what kind of player you are using the Cardschat freerolls:
Imagine a buy-in of $1 for ACR/BCP and Intertops freerolls, and $2 for the BOL/SB ones (I know that for the ACR/BCP it should be a little smaller because the field is 110-140 players, but considering that we don't count the added rake on any of the tournament and for the sake of easy calculation, I think it's a good approximation).
Double your approximate number of BOL/SB freerolls you've played and add that to the number of ACR/BCP and Intertops freerolls. Subtract the obtained number from the amount on dollars you've won playing those freerolls. If you obtain a positive result you are winning player, a negative result means you are a losing player, and anything close to zero makes you a break even player.

Non US players who play PS for example will need to approximate the buy in by dividing the prize amount plus 10% by the average number of players (so for a $100 freeroll with 300 entries, the imaginary buy-in would be 33 cents).

Example: If you are a CC FC regular, playing 400 ACR/BCP and Intertops freerolls and 100 BOL/SB freerolls a year, you need to make at least $600 to consider yourself a break even player, and more than $600 to consider trying buy-in MTTs without negative expectation.

PS: I came up with the above idea trying to assess my own performance, and thought it might be helpful to other fellow CC members. Please let me know what you think, and if you find it to be flawed or inaccurate don't be shy and tell me why. Good luck at the tables!

Why double the number of freerolls? Is there a statistic showing how winnings across freerolls and paid buy-ins can be standardized?

I only ask because the doubling seems arbitrary to me. From freerolls, I've occasionally won 20 and even $30 and when I plow those winnings into paid tournaments, I usually make it to the money. Now I am nearly break even without having to deposit money. I would say I'm slightly better than average, but not by much and according to your system, I would definitely be above average. Interested to see where this goes.
 
57noona

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I didn't do the math, 1 for this two for that, double this and subtract that but it was easy to see I was gonna be a loser:eek:
but you said it yourself,
"There is no buy-in so the worst you could do is break even, which makes the vast majority of us winning players. "
which in my book makes us ALL winners, as a lifelong gambler I have always counted breaking even as a win ;)

how did you do in your evaluation?


Right on Jay we are all winners in Freerolls.
 
MusterIsBack

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I'm not a very good player yet and the number of hands I've played in poker is about 10,000.
However, when I play a logical game in an MTT, I can get 1 out of 4 tournaments to ITM. However, you should know that in FR MTTs, there is very little logical game and you can't use your skills exactly.
 
zinzir

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Why double the number of freerolls? Is there a statistic showing how winnings across freerolls and paid buy-ins can be standardized?

I only ask because the doubling seems arbitrary to me. From freerolls, I've occasionally won 20 and even $30 and when I plow those winnings into paid tournaments, I usually make it to the money. Now I am nearly break even without having to deposit money. I would say I'm slightly better than average, but not by much and according to your system, I would definitely be above average. Interested to see where this goes.


Please read my other posts in this thread. Others already asked your question. Cheers!
 
antonis32123

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I was a little better with the freerolls in the past , maybe because nowadays I am playing a little loose , trying to play more looseespecially on the freerolls ?Maybe .
Anyway , I see my winnings and ITM places , on the CC games and elsewhere , I see I have no good results , lol :) If there was a buy in , probably I wouldn't pay them , try them for sometime to see if I might have a little profit or no losses , then abandon them most probably ....

The good with the freerolls is the zero buyin , so even if you don''t win a lot or nothing , no need to worry (if you play something else at the same time , or else it is a waste of time :))
 
Alekxandrovi3

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The only tournaments that I managed to finish in 1st place were satellites and SnG. Rarely hit the final table at mtt. Always occupied a maximum of top 2. Never managed to take 1 place in mtt. If I suddenly manage to go to the final table and reach the headsup, I will never win it, even if my opponent has the most terrible hand and I have AA. 2nd place.
 
elizeuof

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With these considerations I can't say I'm a winner player, usually in freerolls we found all the sorte of players, with crazy moves, we will see a lot of allin with any 2, bets with the wrong size, out of position, play against theses players will be a coinflip, I had played my best and lose to a maniac so many times, it's common to lose after a good call on flop or turn, but a bad rivers appears.

And there are good players in freerolls too, but some times you will get your game harmed by a bad player, generally we have to see who are the regular player in the table, and when the others players do any crazy move, even though you have a good reading of the bad player, you will need to take in count the regular, and you can make a wrong move in some situations.

Some freerolls there are 15% itm, but also have freerolls with 1000 or 2000 places and just 9 places paid, playing the Cardschat freerolls we will have a good amount, but I'm think about all the freerolls in general, I wanna play again here, make after this I can make a best analysis of my game, with yours parameters.
 
Psyanide14

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That’s one way to look at it but I look at it as it’s $0 to enter and I’ve won over $100 so I consider that a win in my books. Doesn’t sound like much but I usually only play a couple a week so it’s money I didn’t have before.

The other way to look at is that you spend X hours to win Y money so you’re hourly win rate is Y/X. If that is less than what you make at your job (and with freerolls it definitely will be) than is it worth it? Of course if this is your entertainment then it doesn’t really matter what you win because you’re already ahead of whatever else you would have spent the entertainment money on.
 
zinzir

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jaymfc

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Jay, do you remember if the ACR weekly buy-in was always on Sundays, or was it on Saturdays in the past years and only moved to Sundays last couple of years?
not that I remember but to be honest there is nothing left for me to be 100% sure of :eek:
it used to be 2.20 but not sure if the day changed:eek:
we used to have many buy-ins at different sites:eek:
 
antonis32123

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I know :) Believe it or not :)

Actually this 1cent unibet game I wouldn't call it a buyin game of CardsChat , lol , really I do not know why centrolls do exist , either freeroll or buyin game ($1 or more buy in ) , let's forget about centrolls , lol :) With the exception of the centrolls on 888 poker awarding very nice tickets for meny places :) Is it the centroll a way to guarantee the player has made a deposit nowadays ?? He could have won this cent from a freeroll like 888 Poker , if such one do exist on this poker room (Unibet ) .........

I do not play these CC games , not until I become a better player , or else I would destroy my bankroll very easily (if I also play other games with the same buyin :)) , in one month for sure , lol

It used to be a pokerstars CC buyin game I think ??? Anyway , $0.10 or $0.20 buyin for $100 or $250 guaranteed CC buy in tourney , $ 0.33 maximum :), it would be fair , with rebuys and add ons (to reach at least half the guarantee prize :)) , that way I would be playing them for sure :) .
1$ is too much for these games , with very good players playing on them , hard to be ITM if you're not good , few places paid , ofcourse the games with less buy in have too many entrants , but ,at least you pay very little to enter , I think they are not a bad deal for such buy in games on the micros on the poker rooms :)

Good luck to your games :)
 
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yes i am , i am winning like 7 of 10 tournaments .it is good
 
pendulabgd

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Well I have few final tables and in 50% of the tournaments I enter the prizes, the only my mistake is that I'm not patient enough after I enter the prizes I need to change that.
 
blueskies

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Iono... in the ACR freeroll, the min cash is typically $1.10. On weekends, it's even lower as more people enter. So if you use $1 as an entry fee, that would understate whether you'd be profitable.

I also don't know how much I have actually won in the freerolls. sharkscope keeps an approximate record, but it's not accurate due to rounding and missing some tournaments.
 
jaymfc

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I know :) Believe it or not :)

I do not play these CC games , not until I become a better player , or else I would destroy my bankroll very easily (if I also play other games with the same buyin :)) , in one month for sure , lol

It used to be a PokerStars CC buyin game I think ???

Good luck to your games :)
thank you :)
very smart :) bankroll management is very important.

I think there is still a buy-in at PS but I forgot it. I'm a freakin American and don't have access to any of them but ACR/BCP:eek:
that only has about 35 people but you have to be good or very lucky.
really need to be both :D good luck in your games :)
 
BriceNice

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Yes, my entire bankroll was built from freerolls.
 
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