Winning MTTs: most of it is lucky?

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Gusborgs22

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Hey guys
I was doing some math.
Lets say that you'r playing an MTT with an 1000-2000 player field
If you wanna win the MTT you HAVE to go all in pre sometimes...
Lets say that you get into FT and for that you went all in pre 5 times
3 times it was a 70-30 situation for you. 2 times it was a flip (AKs vs TT)
So, doing the math (0.7^3 x 0.5^2) you have only 8% chance to win all those all in situations.
What you guys think about this tought?
 
F

fundiver199

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Yes winning an MTT or even reaching the final table requires a lot of luck. This is why, even the best players in the world only win tournaments now and then.
 
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ph_il

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There is definitely an element of skill and luck involved with mtts. The way I see it, skill is knowing what decisions to make and when to give yourself the best chance of winning the mtt. Luck is the deciding factor on determining if those decisions pay off.

No one ever wins an MTT with just skill alone, but you aren't going to get really far, in the long run, if you rely on luck only.
 
Psyanide14

Psyanide14

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Absolutely true. When playing large MTTs luck is the main factor to win. Everyone who’s decent knows they have to shove pre flop as you get deeper in the tournament. You will often be flipping and even when you are 80/20 (eg AA vs KK) you will still lose once in five times. And I’m sure everyone who wins a MTT will have sucked out somewhere along the way to win a huge pot or to stay alive. Skill is important to have a winning ROI but to flat out win a MTT, you need a lot of luck.
 
Misaki

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For a recreational player I can agree that luck is important factor, but for a regular player it's a little different thing and it's mostly based on skill. If you play a lot then your ev from winning a tourney comes from making good decisions. It doesn't matter that sometimes you will win some spots like AQ vs AK or JJ vs AA because you hit a set. You call it a luck, but a decent player will say that he made +ev decision preflop and that's what matter. Making +ev decisons is a part of a skill, not a part of luck.
Also you need to remember if you make +ev decisions then you will get bad beats, suckouts yourself too. That means with +ev decisions luck factor and unluck factor in long run is equal 0. That's why you need to play a lot of tourneys to beat your unlucky moments with your skills actually.
So I would say: yes, you can win a tourney only with skills, because people are able to make +ev decisions in whole tourney, and those moment when you suckout someone doesn't matter in long run.
If we focus only on a single tournament then yes. Luck matters. But this is not how we should look at poker.
 
MAGICUZ

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Successful in tournaments, the main criterion is only luck, then discipline and patience follow)
 
terryk

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It makes the "average" player feel better knowing the winners of MTT's are just "lucky",,,, :deal:
 
Luvepoker

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Hey guys
I was doing some math.
Lets say that you'r playing an MTT with an 1000-2000 player field
If you wanna win the MTT you HAVE to go all in pre sometimes...
Lets say that you get into FT and for that you went all in pre 5 times
3 times it was a 70-30 situation for you. 2 times it was a flip (AKs vs TT)
So, doing the math (0.7^3 x 0.5^2) you have only 8% chance to win all those all in situations.
What you guys think about this tought?

Your right you need to win more often and be a bit luckier in tournaments to win them. The thing is that's not what really matters. What more inportant is putting yourself in good situations so you can win the tournament. If your not playing solid poker you will not get many chances to play in the situation you are talking about. You also want to be able to handle a loss or 2 when they happen to not be be knocked out of the tournament. While you need to win in these situations there ate time you dont want to put yourself in the situation. Take pocket jacks as an example, Your more likely ahead when called but are you really happy playing for 50BB each with them? Probably not. To many time deep in a tournament I have see people take on the super big stack when they are deep stacked themself and while your ahead its not by much if they have 2 overs. By not over pushing hands like these including AK when deep may give you a better chance to win.
 
Jon Poker

Jon Poker

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Hey guys
I was doing some math.
Lets say that you'r playing an MTT with an 1000-2000 player field
If you wanna win the MTT you HAVE to go all in pre sometimes...
Lets say that you get into FT and for that you went all in pre 5 times
3 times it was a 70-30 situation for you. 2 times it was a flip (AKs vs TT)
So, doing the math (0.7^3 x 0.5^2) you have only 8% chance to win all those all in situations.
What you guys think about this tought?


In a nutshell this boils down to good game selection in accordance with natural variance. Simply put - its much easier to win a tournament in a field of 400-600 entries rather than a field of 2000 entries. So, its not all luck - you have to use your head and understand what you are getting into with MTTs if you want to win long term.
 
nuttea

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Hey guys
I was doing some math.
Lets say that you'r playing an MTT with an 1000-2000 player field
If you wanna win the MTT you HAVE to go all in pre sometimes...
Lets say that you get into FT and for that you went all in pre 5 times
3 times it was a 70-30 situation for you. 2 times it was a flip (AKs vs TT)
So, doing the math (0.7^3 x 0.5^2) you have only 8% chance to win all those all in situations.
What you guys think about this tought?
Even the top pro in the world win tournaments less than 1% of the time. And some of them win only 0.6%. This means that they only win 1 tournament out of a hundred. And don't forget about the variance, which can keep these players from winning for 200-300 tournaments in a row. Top Pros make it to the final table only 3% of the time. And some are only 2%.Top Pros reach prizes only 13% of the time. This means that 87% of the time they just lose money! In fact, amateurs in this regard are even more likely to get prizes than pro. The difference is that if a professional gets to the money, he often goes deep into the tournament.
 
rock0001

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i think that you are right. you need to be very lucky in order to win a tournament with 2000 people, however if you make the best decisions most of the time in every single mtt that you play your odds of winning the tournament will be much higher than players who make the wrong decisions and get lucky.
one thing that i disagree with you is when you say that ak vs tens is a coinflip when in fact its more like 55% 45% in favour of tens so if you are deep stacked shoving all in with ak might not be the best way to play the hand, i know that because i have overplayed these hand many times preflop and end up losing lot of my stack against hands like tens, jacks, and queens.
 
0546474

0546474

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I think tournament poker is not just math or luck !!! All factors must be taken into account !!! Mathematics is an element of the game that cannot be changed !!! But there is also experience and discipline !!! Experience will give us the opportunity to bet the right size, and discipline will help us fold a strong hand if necessary !!!
 
D

donpiatnik

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Hey guys
I was doing some math.
Lets say that you'r playing an MTT with an 1000-2000 player field
If you wanna win the MTT you HAVE to go all in pre sometimes...
Lets say that you get into FT and for that you went all in pre 5 times
3 times it was a 70-30 situation for you. 2 times it was a flip (AKs vs TT)
So, doing the math (0.7^3 x 0.5^2) you have only 8% chance to win all those all in situations.
What you guys think about this tought?


This is obviously not a meaningful calculation. :) You’re unlikely not to win every all in, and you don’t have to. You won't be the first because "all pre all in party" is yours. Obviously it would be easy, but that’s not how it goes. No doubt you have to win the really important parties. If you keep below average... almost everything you have to win, but as you are doing really well, and you have got much more money than others... this is no longer true at all.
 
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Mahdi

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Well, it sort of as it is, but you don't have to go all-in for example against opponents who are covering you, there are call and you can play the board, many decisions may be done during the way to FT
 
AKQ

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took first place in the least lucky poker game there is last night
Noss stud.
but to say texas holdem is ALL luck is wrong
you don't always have to flip you know
there are other things you can do instead
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B

Basililo25

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There is definitely an element of skill and luck involved with mtts. The way I see it, skill is knowing what decisions to make and when to give yourself the best chance of winning the mtt. Luck is the deciding factor on determining if those decisions pay off.

No one ever wins an MTT with just skill alone, but you aren't going to get really far, in the long run, if you rely on luck only.

The really interesting question is, is the rate between luck and skill different in a MTT and in a single table tournament (like a sit-and-go)?

What is your opinion: more luck necessary in a MTT or in a SNG?

... or is it just the same ratio: every time in a poker play, you just have to win a hand. - So its the same problem, isn't it?
 
AKQ

AKQ

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The really interesting question is, is the rate between luck and skill different in a MTT and in a single table tournament (like a sit-and-go)?

What is your opinion: more luck necessary in a MTT or in a SNG?

... or is it just the same ratio: every time in a poker play, you just have to win a hand. - So its the same problem, isn't it?
sng you only have to win 1 flip and you may make the cash at a single table of players
equivalently in a MTT you will have to win 15 sit and gos in a row to cash
 
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Zirkzee

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yes you are right to win a poker tournament you need a lot of luck. You will have to put your tournament life at risk in 50:50 situations. Then a coinflip decides whether you stay in the tournament or you will be eliminated. I am not a fan of tournament poker. Television has made tournament poker look glamorous and like a competition where skill prevails. However, the truth of the matter is that luck plays much larger factor in tournament than in ring games. Think about it this way: at a regular no-limit game, if you started with $ 2,000 what is the chance that you would end up with $ 2 million before the night was over? Zero. However, to win a tournament where each player has 2k starting chips and 1,000 people enter, you would need to win two million in chips to win the tournament. Not an easy feat to do unless lady luck truly smiled upon you that day!
 
LFC_yllnwa

LFC_yllnwa

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Winning any tournament, no matter if it's a heads-up game, spin&go, sit&go or large mtt by 85-95% is only luck... Math is good, but I think it is impossible to calculate or find the best solutions for the game, solely based on statistics. There are a lot of random factors, events, opportunities, that you can't control or keep in mind. Of course, if you are an absolute beginner in poker and do not know anything, luck will not help you... and vice versa, super pros can't win every time.. We do not consider situations of getting into money, this is completely different, but even there, luck is necessary.

Therefore, it is necessary to take into account a lot of factors and never forget, that luck can be with you or against you and you should not worry about it. It is worth developing 15% -20% of yourself to eliminate mistakes and stupid decisions at the table)
 
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