What would you have done in my situation

[jadaminato]

Final table, only 3 winning places and 7 players left. You have the nuts on the turn and you are against an opponent that has the same stack. There is a flush project on the flop and after 200 hands read you are pretty sure that your opponent is chasing the color. You are also sure that there is no bet that will make him fold.

What do you do, check and take the pot built to the turn if he doesn't get the color, or you bet everything at your 80% odds?

(If you go all-in and win, you place yourself as leader of the table by far)

Spoiler

I went all-in, he paid with his project and got the flush on the river.

 

[BoyNamedSude]

I wait, and see if a flush is going to be a reality, but raise a mild raise in the meanwhile... don't get agitated, be patient.
I was excited by the spoiler alert, but after i responded, i clicked it and nothing happened! :reddy:

 

[jadaminato]

I wait, and see if a flush is going to be a reality, but raise a mild raise in the meanwhile... don't get agitated, be patient.
I was excited by the spoiler alert, but after i responded, i clicked it and nothing happened! :reddy:

Give him a free card, you say?
:bike:

 

[frank174]

you should be all- in make him pay to chase the flush, you said only 3 pay and you got the nuts,this should be a no brainer

 

[Andrew Popov]

how strong is your hand on the turn? Are you sure you can win if the villain does not get his flash? This is an important point to calculate odds. If the answer is no, then it makes no sense to inflate the bank, risking the whole stack.

 

[STARSC27]

So there were 7 players left and only 3 places paid.Well in this situation your decision should be influenced by your position at that moment in the tournament.I will give you some examples so you can understand my point:
-if you were on the 1st/2nd/3rd place I would take the lower variance,value bet and if the turn/river brings the flush I slow down and maybe fold to a big bet/raise;the reason why you sohuld do this is because you should just wait for others to bust out of the tournament so you can cash as you already are in a favorable spot;
-if you are not in the money I would take the higher variance,just shove the flop as you have more than 50% equity and a double-up might put you in the favorable spot I talked about above;the reason why you should do this is because you are in one of the worst positions in the tournament and you are just waiting for a nice spot to double up and this is a nice spot because you got more than 50% equity;

 

[Garfield52]

As a fairly lower level ability player I think I would tease him with some smaller raise until the final river card and then blast away with an all in.

 

[TheDude6622]

If you know that you're opponent is going for a flush and is unwilling to fold to any bet, why go all in to lose all your chips if he catches? Your hand cannot get better but your opponent's hand can.

 

[jadaminato]

how strong is your hand on the turn? Are you sure you can win if the villain does not get his flash? This is an important point to calculate odds. If the answer is no, then it makes no sense to inflate the bank, risking the whole stack.

Set of kings. The only hand that could win me is the flush

If you know that you're opponent is going for a flush and is unwilling to fold to any bet, why go all in to lose all your chips if he catches? Your hand cannot get better but your opponent's hand can.

It is a good reflection. The question is, with 80% equity, what would your movement be? Maybe going all-in was too risky, but with so much EV I want to grow the pot, right? I dont know. I went all-in and lost. Now I think I should have made a bet the size of the pot to let me live if he got the flush, as he did, and to win a lot of chips if not.

 

[Andrew Popov]

yes, in that case, a smaller rate (in the size of the bank, for example) would be better. In addition, the villain could simply throw cards and not pay for your raise. A softer raise would protect your stack in the event of a card being dealt in a suit for a flush on the river, and there would be a better chance of a villain calling. I don’t know what’s worse - to knock him out of the bank and not get the chips. Or let it cheaper to see the fifth map. In any case, you are just out of luck with this hand.

 

[Anglermeister]

I think that all in is okay. I would not give him a free card either. He also should not have been allowed to call with his flush draw if he is not commited.

Shit happens, next time holds your hand and you win the tournament.

 

[Branimir84]

In such a tourney structure, I would continue to bet pot size or even slightly higher giving him no free cards and building the pot.

If the flush comes, then I would cease and fold to any of his bets. If it doesn't come, a nice pot would go my way in chasing the top 3 finish.

With such a strong read, it makes little sense to go all in.

 

[eyeluvpoker]

If you got the nuts all in or huge raise every time. Even if he is calling and chasing the flush you will win the majority of times.

 

[jadaminato]

yes, in that case, a smaller rate (in the size of the bank, for example) would be better. In addition, the villain could simply throw cards and not pay for your raise. A softer raise would protect your stack in the event of a card being dealt in a suit for a flush on the river, and there would be a better chance of a villain calling. I don’t know what’s worse - to knock him out of the bank and not get the chips. Or let it cheaper to see the fifth map. In any case, you are just out of luck with this hand.

Thanks for your answer Andrew. In any case I think an all-in is too risky, being the final table. I would never have given him a free card, but a bet of between 70% and the size of the pot would have been fine.