This is a discussion on Skill, or an idiot having good luck? within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Poker section; I welcome all opinions on the following situation.
My stack: 305K Villain stack: 443K
Near the money and on the sb, I am dealt 97s. villain limps,
I welcome all opinions on the following situation.
My stack: 305K Villain stack: 443K
Near the money and on the sb, I am dealt 97s. villain limps, I call, 3-way hand.
flop comes: Q96 rainbow, I bet 75%, bb folds, villain calls.
pot is now 111K, I have 268K left.
Turn brings 4, flush draw on board, I go all in and villain calls with A9o.
River brings A (as usual when I'm in such a situation)
If I had a situation like that of your opponent, then after your second raise I would fold into a fold card. To defend card 9 despite the fact that there is also a queen on the flop after a big raise was not worth it. It was a move for luck.
Happens all the time. You of course want him to make the call on the turn. Unfortunately the river did work out for him. In this case you had bad luck. But, in general limping weaker hands like 97s out of position is often fraught with risk. There are lots of ways to lose with that hand in that position - you found one of them. Any sense of commitment from villain is almost always a bad sign and a good reason not to put a lot of money in the pot.
when you bet 80% of pot (37k) and he called. alarm bells should have went off that this guy could have something worthy even on a dry board as this. since you didnt have the nuts and being that this is before the money i would have been more cautious and went with some pot control from the start. if i did bet i would make a smaller bet (35%-45%) to start, save some chips in order to maybe follow up with an bigger C-bet on the turn making my hand seem a bit more legit. 2 big stacks like that I would not want to go viking-hammer to see who flinches first before the money. definitely not going all-in and risking tournament life after such a raise-call. with that said did he have some read on you? maybe in previous hands you were raising while floating? or caught bluffing more then once? i ask this because on his part it didnt make much sense risking a big portion of his stack praying to the poker-gods for that A on the river. i like to be aggressive near the money but not wreckless with my stack, especially if i dont have the nuts. good luck next tournament!
Yes, because when you go all in you are not representing a strong hand for me...
200% pot? A9 still bottom of the range of call.
There are other things you must consider, what your 'play style' represents to the table, maybe this opponent has some read on you
Only three cards (7) could save your position. He had more chances, he would have won if one of the following cards had fallen: 2 nines, 3 aces, 3 queens, in total 2+3+3=8 potential cards. Of course, I don’t know how he played all the time and whether you used the weaknesses of his game. But in this case, on the turn, you saw that you couldn’t get a straight. All-in was a bad idea.
I don't think you did much wrong here. I would have bet less on the flop myself just to keep in his A9 type hands but 75% as you made it did not make him fold anyway which in the long run is what we want. I think playing pre flop as you did with suited one gappers is a no brainer. Then on the flop as I said I would have gone about half pot or maybe less because the board is rainbow, we have two pair so we have two set blockers and I doubt he is limping with QQ so we know he does not (or very likely not) have a set. Therefore he either has J10 87, one pair, or on our darkest days Q9 or Q7. We are crushing almost everything he has at this point and since we started the hand with about 20 BBs (my best guess) I don't think I would ever be folding this hand.