Satellite hand analysis

[Daithi]

Satellite, still miles away from prize. First two getting prize about 15/20 still there or so.

I get the Rockets in the small blind. Villain is in only 4 hands and steals with a min-raise. This was his 1st hand he got involved in the 4 hands. So I was expecting him to be like a reg. Say 20% open raise in the Cutoff. For that reason I made it look like a weak defend, I wanted him to stay, so I deliberately gave "seemingly good pot odds" by min 3bet (Ante as well). I am giving him 20.5% pot odds. His range equity is only 16%. His actual hand equity is 13.75%. He calls.

Personally, I think my biggest mistake was actually on the Flop for betting only a 1/2 Pot. I knew that flop was suiting his range and was worried about 2 pairs. But was aware of the draws. By betting only 1/2 I am giving 25% and he was needing 24%. With implied odds....I should have bet a pot here I think. Of course the Turn card was amazing and disastrous for me. Gives me a Set, eliminating 2 pair, but completes a straight for KT which I knew was in his range. Already around 1.2:1 effective SPR. I go for 3/4 of the pot. He shoves all-in and I know I am ****ed. Pot committed and likely beaten. He flips over KT.

I'd like to know how would you play the hand. I understand that min raises are not recommended but I knew it was gonna be 1 on 1 and with AA I was really ahead. I would have never done that say with AK. I think my biggest mistake was betting the Flop too soft. Not much I could have done afterward due to the nature of shallow stacks within the structure of the satellite.


Thanks.

PartyGaming - 1500/3000 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

Hero (SB): 126,416 (42.1 bb)
BB: 81,528 (27.2 bb)
UTG: 173,230 (57.7 bb)
MP: 336,418 (112.1 bb)
CO: 94,000 (31.3 bb)
BTN: 75,468 (25.2 bb)

6 players post ante of 375, Hero posts SB 1,500, BB posts 3,000

Pre Flop: (pot: 6,750) Hero has
2 folds, CO raises to 6,000, fold, Hero raises to 12,000, fold, CO calls 6,000

Flop: (29,250, 2 players)
Hero bets 14,625, CO calls 14,625

Turn: (58,500, 2 players)
Hero bets 39,000, CO raises to 67,000 and is all-in, Hero calls 28,000

River: (192,500, 2 players)

Results: 192,500 pot (0 rake)
Final Board:

Hero shows : (Three of a Kind, Aces)
(Pre 86%, Flop 76%, Turn 23%)

CO shows : (Straight, Ace High)
(Pre 14%, Flop 24%, Turn 77%)

CO wins 192,500

 

[Daithi]

Addon: Coming back to the Flop bet, on second thought I may not have been as bad as I had originally thought because his 24% is for 2 cards to come (all-in). For one street he has 8 outs 16% (not counting my AA) or real 6 outs 12% while I was charging 25%. So mathematically I played it fine, I think. But still, I believe I should opted in for a stronger bet for a deterrent as that Flop was really shitty.

 

[Pickat]

I would have raised stronger pre flop also and definitely would have made him know post flop that he was risking all his chips on a draw if he wanted to continue . You needed to make his decisions harder to make . Once you get him on defense instead of offense you gain the advantage . Good luck next time .

 

[Daithi]

I would have raised stronger pre flop also and definitely would have made him know post flop that he was risking all his chips on a draw if he wanted to continue . You needed to make his decisions harder to make . Once you get him on defense instead of offense you gain the advantage . Good luck next time .

I definitely like your post--flop advice. But preflop, why exactly would have raised stronger?

 

[HK_47]

I would have raised stronger pre flop also and definitely would have made him know post flop that he was risking all his chips on a draw if he wanted to continue . You needed to make his decisions harder to make . Once you get him on defense instead of offense you gain the advantage . Good luck next time .

I have to agree, if he is playing tight he will most likely see a flop regardless, when I see someone min raise exactly you did I usually think "Big hand trying to get action" what I'd have liked to see is something more along the lines of a 16kish 3bet and a 2/3 pot bet on the flop since it's so draw heavy. You were basically pricing him in the whole way and there's a good chance he would just shove all-in on that board on the flop given you could have AK AJ A10 or any number of pairs.