Multiway all in on FT bubble, would you fold AK?

[Amanda A]

I'm seeking advice and would love to hear opinions!
I made it to bubble of the final table in a $2500 GTD $2 buy in on ACR. There's a bunch of us, I think 5 of us, with shorter 10-12 blind stacks or less. I'm probably at the top of those shorter stacks. I look down at AK. YAY! But then there's 2 all ins in front of me with stacks which almost cover me.
Here's the hand https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/1qDrdQ6
Would anyone fold the AKo here???
I called and as you can see lost to 66 and I made it to final table with basically no chips left.
At the time I was thinking "I'm playing to win, AK it too good to fold even multiway and I think I come out pretty well against their range, at least I won't be a huge underdog, and it will put me in a good position to go for the win, so let's go!"
Now I'm not so sure, we all want to make ev+ decisions and 3 way AK can't have that much equity, maybe 30-40%? (I'm thinking you are going to dominate likely hands like AQ which was one of the hands, so maybe you have a bit better than 30% against ranges of your 2 opponents?) So why am I gambling here? If there was one all in ok, but 2 all ins? Was this a bad call? Should I have folded??? If I made it to final table with 10-12 bigs I might have been able to ladder up, at least a few spots. As it was I got around $26 for 9th, I think 1st was over $300. Somewhere in the middle for $50 or more would have been sweet! Oh well.
Love to hear opinions on this.

 

[Mahdi]

if you were trying to win it was a good call, had a good chances to win that flip and go higher, you had your 33% equity
if your target was to get as mush money as you could without risking then bad call, 3 way with AK doesn`t work well, because someone probably holding your outs and you may do worse against pairs

 

[ROYALROAD]

Completely, It depends on the situation of that case's place then.

AK, even so there are no changes in an ordinary card.

 

[ph_il]

i'm never folding ak here in this spot. it's just too strong of a hand and your stack is just way to short to fold it.

co and sb and getting it in with so many weaker aces and weaker broadway hands, as well as pairs that we're happy to flip against. you block aa and kk combos, so you're not going to be in a terrible equity spot in this situation.

i don't know their ranges, but i wouldn't be surprised if you had, at worst, somewhere around 35-40% equity against 2 all-ins, but that's ok. when you're short stack, you're happy to get in with in 35-40% equity spots. yeah, it's not a +ev spot but you still win ~2/5 times and it puts you in a much better situation to run deep when your hand holds.

as far as folding and giving yourself 10-12 bbs at the final table, i don't like thinking in this way. instead, i'm looking at situations that's going to maximize my stack size. is there some risk to it, of course. but the times you do win here and you pick 30+ bbs, that's going to final table. and keep in mind that 35-40 equity is just an average against ranges, there are times where you're going to up against weaker aces and kq, k10s, types of hands that you just absolutely crush.

so, even though you risk getting the final table with short stack some of the time, you make up for it when you hit the final table with 30+ bbs in this situation. you'd rather have 30+ bbs 40% of the times over 10-12 bbs 100% of the time because you're just going to do so much better with that stack size over all.

so, great call and it just didn't work for out for you.

 

[Polytarp]

Nope. Wouldn't fold, pot odds.

 

[fundiver199]

In real time I would also have called, but I plugged this into ICMizer, and it actually recommends folding. ICMizer only wants us to call with JJ+ and AKs. AKo is very close though, so the exact payout structure of this particular MTT as well as stack size distribution on the other table could perhaps swing it one way or another.

But at the end of the day this is a high ICM situation, since there is an immedeate payjump, if someone else bust, and I guess, this is why, ICMizer wants us to be so snug. There is value in simply leaning back here and hope, that SB busts CO. Which he will more than half the time, since he is supposed to have a significantly stronger range for overjamming.

If I reverse the stack sizes of CO and SB, then AKo becomes a marginal call, so the small details really matter here. At the end of the day I would not beat up myself over calling this, but the idea of folding is actually the right one and not crazy at all.

 

[Phoenix Wright]

It may sound a bit nitty, but I would consider folding AK here - especially deeper stacked. The problem is that you are low on chips and when short-stacked we are shoving more hands here. It is a close decision for me, but I don't know if I would call an all-in shove. If no one shoved yet, then I may shove the same hand because I have some fold equity: but we have zero percent chance of getting them to fold if they are already all-in. AK tends to be a coin-flip against many situations (like 66 and other pocket pairs for instance) and that isn't how I like to get my chips in.

While I say this, I'd still be tempted to shove but I do have the discipline to fold here too. AK suited? Now I'm shoving lol. It is close either way, I don't think you can go too wrong either way here. The more critical question may be: "how did you get this low chip stack in the first place?" It isn't the question anyone likes to hear, but I've learned a lot in post-game analysis by asking myself this question.

 

[Phoenix Wright]

In real time I would also have called, but I plugged this into ICMizer, and it actually recommends folding. ICMizer only wants us to call with JJ+ and AKs. AKo is very close though, so the exact payout structure of this particular MTT as well as stack size distribution on the other table could perhaps swing it one way or another.

But at the end of the day this is a high ICM situation, since there is an immedeate payjump, if someone else bust, and I guess, this is why, ICMizer wants us to be so snug. There is value in simply leaning back here and hope, that SB busts CO. Which he will more than half the time, since he is supposed to have a significantly stronger range for overjamming.

If I reverse the stack sizes of CO and SB, then AKo becomes a marginal call, so the small details really matter here. At the end of the day I would not beat up myself over calling this, but the idea of folding is actually the right one and not crazy at all.

Just read this deeper. Wow, cool to hear my AK instinct wasn't as nitty as I thought Nice to hear the ICMizer perspective. JJ+ I'd shove too, but I'd probably have included more pocket pair hands to be honest. Maybe 88+ or so if I was being honest with myself. Even 22+ isn't so low, but it is a similar coin-flip scenario and I'd rather wait for a better spot most of the time.

 

[Amanda A]

i'm never folding ak here in this spot. it's just too strong of a hand and your stack is just way to short to fold it.

co and sb and getting it in with so many weaker aces and weaker broadway hands, as well as pairs that we're happy to flip against. you block aa and kk combos, so you're not going to be in a terrible equity spot in this situation.

i don't know their ranges, but i wouldn't be surprised if you had, at worst, somewhere around 35-40% equity against 2 all-ins, but that's ok. when you're short stack, you're happy to get in with in 35-40% equity spots. yeah, it's not a +ev spot but you still win ~2/5 times and it puts you in a much better situation to run deep when your hand holds.

as far as folding and giving yourself 10-12 bbs at the final table, i don't like thinking in this way. instead, i'm looking at situations that's going to maximize my stack size. is there some risk to it, of course. but the times you do win here and you pick 30+ bbs, that's going to final table. and keep in mind that 35-40 equity is just an average against ranges, there are times where you're going to up against weaker aces and kq, k10s, types of hands that you just absolutely crush.

so, even though you risk getting the final table with short stack some of the time, you make up for it when you hit the final table with 30+ bbs in this situation. you'd rather have 30+ bbs 40% of the times over 10-12 bbs 100% of the time because you're just going to do so much better with that stack size over all.

so, great call and it just didn't work for out for you.

Thanks so much for your reply. It makes a lot of sense and I think this is the way a lot of winners think. You've got to get lucky to win tournaments and it doesn't get much better than AK, especially on a shorter stack. No gamble no glory. GL to you!

 

[Amanda A]

In real time I would also have called, but I plugged this into ICMizer, and it actually recommends folding. ICMizer only wants us to call with JJ+ and AKs. AKo is very close though, so the exact payout structure of this particular MTT as well as stack size distribution on the other table could perhaps swing it one way or another.

But at the end of the day this is a high ICM situation, since there is an immedeate payjump, if someone else bust, and I guess, this is why, ICMizer wants us to be so snug. There is value in simply leaning back here and hope, that SB busts CO. Which he will more than half the time, since he is supposed to have a significantly stronger range for overjamming.


If I reverse the stack sizes of CO and SB, then AKo becomes a marginal call, so the small details really matter here. At the end of the day I would not beat up myself over calling this, but the idea of folding is actually the right one and not crazy at all.

Wow! Interesting. I do see the arguments both ways. I was definitely feeling the ICM pressure and it's so hard to win a multiway pot! Why do I want to take a spot where I will probably bust 2/3rds the time? I'm short stacked, yes, but there are a few of us who are short stacked. I'm not the shortest stack and at 12 blinds and I still have some fold equity. I'd probably find a spot to shove my stack in at final table and most likely have no callers or just one caller. Although I might have to go with a worse hand, I'd have more equity in a pot that was just heads up.

If I'd have won with AK it would have put me in a nice position, however it wouldn't guarantee me the win, so I'm not sure if what I'm gaining in terms of ICM is enough to risk losing and being out of the tournament 2/3rds of the time.

Glad to know it is a close decision, and thanks for saying you would have called and to not beat myself up about it. It is driving me crazy! ha ha It's a tough spot. Also thanks for doing the work and for plugging it into ICMizer!

GL!

 

[Amanda A]

if you were trying to win it was a good call, had a good chances to win that flip and go higher, you had your 33% equity
if your target was to get as mush money as you could without risking then bad call, 3 way with AK doesn`t work well, because someone probably holding your outs and you may do worse against pairs

Yep, I think you nailed it. Depends on what my goals are. At the time I wanted to win, but because I lost I think it would have been nice to ladder up and get more $ LOL!

GL!

 

[GGthiagoXD]

I'm seeking advice and would love to hear opinions!
I made it to bubble of the final table in a $2500 GTD $2 buy in on ACR. There's a bunch of us, I think 5 of us, with shorter 10-12 blind stacks or less. I'm probably at the top of those shorter stacks. I look down at AK. YAY! But then there's 2 all ins in front of me with stacks which almost cover me.
Here's the hand https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/1qDrdQ6
Would anyone fold the AKo here???
I called and as you can see lost to 66 and I made it to final table with basically no chips left.
At the time I was thinking "I'm playing to win, AK it too good to fold even multiway and I think I come out pretty well against their range, at least I won't be a huge underdog, and it will put me in a good position to go for the win, so let's go!"
Now I'm not so sure, we all want to make ev+ decisions and 3 way AK can't have that much equity, maybe 30-40%? (I'm thinking you are going to dominate likely hands like AQ which was one of the hands, so maybe you have a bit better than 30% against ranges of your 2 opponents?) So why am I gambling here? If there was one all in ok, but 2 all ins? Was this a bad call? Should I have folded??? If I made it to final table with 10-12 bigs I might have been able to ladder up, at least a few spots. As it was I got around $26 for 9th, I think 1st was over $300. Somewhere in the middle for $50 or more would have been sweet! Oh well.
Love to hear opinions on this.

look sincerely AK is a fact that it is a first group hand ok hand monster, but to open the pot, or to increase but play all in just paying AK as I love to do but I am sliced ​​many, I believe that in the long run AK is very profitable for being more of a group will always be favorite most of the time you will lose some.XD

 

[franken222]

I'm seeking advice and would love to hear opinions!
I made it to bubble of the final table in a $2500 GTD $2 buy in on ACR. There's a bunch of us, I think 5 of us, with shorter 10-12 blind stacks or less. I'm probably at the top of those shorter stacks. I look down at AK. YAY! But then there's 2 all ins in front of me with stacks which almost cover me.
Here's the hand https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/1qDrdQ6
Would anyone fold the AKo here???
I called and as you can see lost to 66 and I made it to final table with basically no chips left.
At the time I was thinking "I'm playing to win, AK it too good to fold even multiway and I think I come out pretty well against their range, at least I won't be a huge underdog, and it will put me in a good position to go for the win, so let's go!"
Now I'm not so sure, we all want to make ev+ decisions and 3 way AK can't have that much equity, maybe 30-40%? (I'm thinking you are going to dominate likely hands like AQ which was one of the hands, so maybe you have a bit better than 30% against ranges of your 2 opponents?) So why am I gambling here? If there was one all in ok, but 2 all ins? Was this a bad call? Should I have folded??? If I made it to final table with 10-12 bigs I might have been able to ladder up, at least a few spots. As it was I got around $26 for 9th, I think 1st was over $300. Somewhere in the middle for $50 or more would have been sweet! Oh well.
Love to hear opinions on this.

That's a tough one. I would find it really tempting to go all-in, but I probably would have folded, with 2 all-ins in front of me.

They're thinking the same thing I would be. ie: Got a good chance here. They would have to holding pretty good cards, (in my mind) to do what they did.

One poker axiom that I always try to adhere to is....make it into the money first, then take chances. I'd be looking at how many blinds I have left, and can I survive them, if I get lousy cards.

With 2 all-ins ahead of me, I would fold, but AK is worth a shot.

 

[ph_il]

I think this is the way a lot of winners think.

lol, i wouldn't call myself a 'winner' but it's just what i would do in the situation. however, seeing as icmizer says it's a fold, then what i say/do is, obviously, not the best advice.

if your goal is to maximize your win rate, make the most +ev decisions, and move up while improving your game overall, then i think it's better to follow what icmizer says. however, i'm fine making the call here with ako, even if i know it's a close -ev icm spot, according to icmizer. i'm not trying to justify making -ev plays just because i'm a recreational player, it's just that at the end of the day, i'd rather take the lines that i know i'm going to be happy with, regardless of the results. i'd much rather take the risk of losing my chips in this spot going for a bigger stack that i can use way more to my advantage than to fold and play it safe just because icmizer says i should.

in the end, for me, it's all about playing with no regrets of the decisions i make and i'm never regretting risking a short stack with a big hand to put myself in a much better position to win an mtt, even on the final table bubble. i don't care if i bust out 10th and don't make the final table. or if i make the final table and take 9th when i might have been in 5-7th place with 10-12 bbs if i had folded. none of that matters, honestly. just making the final table doesn't matter overall because, what's the difference between taking 10th place and 9th place? money wise, not much and all you get with 9th place is you can say you made the final table, but it's nothing really special. again, this is how i view it. i'm not trying to take away the excitement or feeling you or others might get for making the final table. it is a really awesome feeling to make to the final 9, but in terms of running deep in the final and winning, the bottom places means nothing to me.

top 3 is where the real money is at, so i'm going to do everything i can to set myself up to finish as deep as possible and sometimes that means taking some big risks to pick up a stack that i can use to my advantage a lot more at the final table. 30 bbs isn't huge but it plays so much better than a 10-12 bb stack. if i double up, now i'm 60+ bbs, now i'm in even better position to do well whereas i would have to double up ~2.5x from a 10 bb stack, which just increase the odds of me busting out. plus, i can apply more pressure with a bigger stack than a short one.

but that's just how i do things when i play.

 

[Germanets]

On the final table, I would prefer to get any change to stay "alive" as long as possible, to get higher place(just because difference between, let say, 5th and 4th place is huge). So, in this case I would prefer to fold this hand, just because there is big that one of two already all-ined players will loose all stack and will be out of game.

 

[digdug0037]

This is a older post but had to reply, In the past I am playing that all day long, but with the raise and all in before you, you have to believe there is a chance someone has a premium hand like JJ or higher. While it was 6s, if you had realized the situation in the tourney, and your position, you would not have needed to ask the question. My gut would say call, but if I take a little extra time and look at the details like position, where are we at in the tourney, and the main fact 1 person went all in then followed by another, its pretty good guess 1 of them has a pair. AK is nice but they cost you money as well. 6s dominate you every time.

 

[Poker_Mike]

5-Way All In

This is a older post but had to reply, In the past I am playing that all day long, but with the raise and all in before you, you have to believe there is a chance someone has a premium hand like JJ or higher. While it was 6s, if you had realized the situation in the tourney, and your position, you would not have needed to ask the question. My gut would say call, but if I take a little extra time and look at the details like position, where are we at in the tourney, and the main fact 1 person went all in then followed by another, its pretty good guess 1 of them has a pair. AK is nice but they cost you money as well. 6s dominate you every time.

Five players are all in.

What do you think they are shoving with?

I have been in this situation to see the nightmare reality of another player with AK.

ICMizer says it's a fold then it makes a lot of sense to fold.

The more players in the hand the more likely you will lose. Although if you win then you win all the chips in the pot.

It is tempting but today with all I know it is a fold for me.

And then get these same chips from whomever won them!

 

[fundiver199]

Perhaps a moderator could move this to the hand review section?

 

[Zirkzee]

In this example it is suitable to take a closer look at the ICM. Your expected value if you lose this hand is $ 26. If you win the hand you have an expected value of $ 150 and if you fold the hand you have an expected value of $ 75. You can also do the calculations for different expected values. Since these are only assumptions anyway. We give your opponents hand ranges of AT + & 44+. This gives you a 33.26% chance of winning. So the calculation for the expected value when you play the hand looks like this: EV = 33.26% * $ 150 + 66.74% * $ 26 = $ 67.24 If you called you would make an average of $ 67.24. If you fold your hand, your EV stays at $ 75. In that case, you'd better fold. Of course these are just assumptions that I made. With other EV it looks different again of course.

 

[vittopio]

I lost with AK vs 96 in a $ 600 satellite in the blind war, having 8 stacks of 12 players and 10 tickets ! This is poker where there is no universal recipe!

 

[Zirkzee]

There are certainly some players who never fold AK in this situation. They say to themselves if you want to win a tournament you have to take such risks and then you have to be lucky enough to win. After all, poker is also a game of luck, and to win a tournament you need a lot of it. A coinflip often decides whether you are eliminated or are still there.

 

[Raphael Zabel]

AK is a great starting hand, but you need to hit one of the pairs to win most of the time. It would be better if you were the aggressor, going all-in. It would be better to fold this time and try a better spot on FT.

 

[karl coakley]

AK is the most overplayed hand in poker. You literally have no hand, just ace high. Putting all my chips in preflop with 2 people shoving is just a horrible idea. The strength of AK is that you can be an aggressor with it. Once 2 people ship it, that is taken away. AK 3 ways is not where you want your tournament life unless you are really short.

 

[sara maria]

of course in the bubble, that's where nothing ever comes out