Misplayed Middle Set on Turn or just unlucky River?

[Shumkoolie]

I'm working on ridding myself of the whole "monsters under the bed thing" and see the good on hands and situations. I feel like I played this hand fine, but wanted your opinion on this. Here is the pertinent information.

Progressive KO Turbo ($11) on pokerstars.
We were getting close to the money, though I was not concerned with that.
Villain stats (small sample size - 7 hands: 57-33 no 3bet).


Flopped middle set on a draw-ish board, but thought with X-FLP, I wanted villain to catch up so that I could get paid on future streets, as betting out here was likely going to produce a fold.
Turn card was exactly what I wanted to see. I was unconcerned about AA here as they are almost NEVER going to just flat in the BB in a PKO. However, when they X-raised, I figured they had a ton of Ax here.
Maybe here I should have piled, given that it IS a PKO and if I get a full double-up, I'm a big stack, close to the money, ready to apply pressure on the money bubble, and ready to make a very deep run.

River shove by villain here did give me reason to pause, but I couldn't find a fold here. Unfortunately, it happened to be a one outer to knock me out.

I don't feel too upset by the result, I feel like I was able to extract the value I wanted to see on the turn, with the only thing I COULD have done differently was shove in that spot. If they catch up and beat me, well, so be it.


Thoughts on how I played it? (I obviously didn't put them on 4x given they called a PFR, and with a small sample size, they were playing fairly loose). Thanks all.

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/224EOn3BX

 

[fundiver199]

Please post in the hand review section next time

Preflop
Opening 66 on a 5-handed table is of course standard and fine. Size is standard as well for this stage of the tournament.

Flop
I really dont like checking back a set on this flop. To me this is fancy play syndrome. You say, you want him to catch up, so he can pay you later, but there are loads on hands, that can pay you now, including top pair, which he can certainly have, and which you dont block. There are also some draws, which you want to charge now, while they will still pay you. You dont have to blast it, but anything between 1/3 and 1/2 pot is way better than checking back.

Turn
You obviously need to bet now, and given, that the board got wetter, I think, your sizing is to small. He will call half pot with just about the same hands, as he will call this size. When he check-raise, you face an interesting decision. You could jam, but this would look super strong, and given that it would be for more than full pot, he is almost certainly going to fold his draws, which you do not want, since they are drawing dead.

So overall I do think, its ok to just call, but I slightly prefer to make a very exploitable play by clicking him back. I would never do this as a bluff, and this will probably be obvious to him, but at the same time I dont think, he would be able to get away from a draw, trips or even just AX, and your hand is super underrepped after checking back flop. So as played I would make it like 5.000 with the intention to get the rest in on the river, if he dont jam himself now.

River
This was a very bad card for you, since you now lose to 4X, AX and 77-KK, which mean, you basically only beat a busted draw. You are facing a slight overbet, and I think, I would fold now. He did check-raise you on the turn, and I think, most people would just bet out with their draws rather than go for this somewhat fancy play.

So I do think, you are looking at a 4 or perhaps an A here most of the time, and this is for all your remaining chips. As for him having a 4 in his hand after calling preflop, this is certainly not surpricing, since he was defending his big blind against just over a mini-raise. He was priced in to call with a lot of hands including 42s, so you need to put him on a very wide range.

 

[300HPGOD]

The pre flop raise is fine along with the sizing. I am ok with the flop check. I am not sure I would have done it in game and there is chance villain has Ax that we can start getting value from but there is nothing on this flop that scares me because villain should not be calling a raise with many 53 or 57 combos unless they are suited. Maybe they are a staunch blind defender and I dont know that here but I am not worried about the possible straight draw. Betting is fine and like I said, I probably would have here but you will get a lot folds doing it too so no problem with the check.

On the turn is where it gets interesting. I like the sizing (although I would not go any smaller) and we get check raised. Here I would be thinking either Ax, a 4 or an airball. I think it is important to realize what each of these hands would do if we call here. The airball is checking river, the Ax is most likely checking river but may bet, and the 4 should lead again. However, if we re-raise here villain might actually call with all those including the airball. They might think they can do a move where they call your raise and then lead into you on the river to scare you. They will definitely call your raise with the 4 and probably with the Ace. Thinking of it this way shows us that we get more value by re-raising here then just calling since many villains will not raise and fold on the same street. Re-raising 2-2.5x here would be the move that I would recommend for getting max value. Also note I am not saying to raise here to protect our hand or because I saw the results, I am raising here to get more value and want villain to call my raise.

The river blows. Its one of those throw up in your mouth types river cards. Even though it would turn out to be a mistake I could not get myself to fold this river. We are only losing to the case 4 in the deck. If villain has anything else we beat them with a bigger boat and they could easily overbet a boat of 4s full of aces here when they have the Ax. Sucks that the 4 is what they had.

 

[fundiver199]

River
This was a very bad card for you, since you now lose to 4X, AX and 77-KK, which mean, you basically only beat a busted draw. You are facing a slight overbet, and I think, I would fold now. He did check-raise you on the turn, and I think, most people would just bet out with their draws rather than go for this somewhat fancy play.

So I do think, you are looking at a 4 or perhaps an A here most of the time, and this is for all your remaining chips. As for him having a 4 in his hand after calling preflop, this is certainly not surpricing, since he was defending his big blind against just over a mini-raise. He was priced in to call with a lot of hands including 42s, so you need to put him on a very wide range.

Please forget this. You only lose to 4X and a very unlikely AA. Given that I would make the call, because the way, you played your hand, Villain might think he is at worst chopping and jam his AX, and he has way more AX in his range than 4X. Just an unfortunate cooler runout, which you could not really have done anything about.

 

[fundiver199]

Betting is fine and like I said, I probably would have here but you will get a lot folds doing it too so no problem with the check.

This issue with checking is, that it cancel one betting round, which makes it very difficult to get stacks inside. We basically rely on Villian to either bet or check-raise us on the turn, and if he does neither of that, we will only be able to get at most two bets out of him. Its different, if Hero is out of position, because then checking might induce Villain to bet the flop.

Also while 75s and 53s should be the only strong draws in his range, loads of different hands can have a gutshot or backdoor into a straight or flush, so protection is not a trivial concern with a set even on a relatively dry flop like this. And even if a bad runout like 4s6cAh-7h-8h might not always give Villain a better hand, it will kill action.

 

[UkoChebuko]

KO tournament , I just never check-back OTF with hand, good enough for All in. No sense at all. If you want to play "fancy", just make a small bet. Annoying bet. 666, something, like this.
As played, small "fishy", anoying 3bet OTT. I will do that. There...I don't think he will call a shove with a flush draw. That's why I will not shove. Also a straight draw. Ax and 4x is "whatever", he will not fold vs shove OTR. But maybe he will call with flush draw. Vs shove. I don't know. Depends on the bounty. This stats...Maybe 3bet shove OTT is better. But don't close the action imo, don't check back as well.

 

[Oxinthewater]

I agree with most of the comments already (would have bet the flop and re-raised turn).

One comment I'd challenge is discounting 4's in his range due to calling the preflop raise - with ante's, a very small raise size (call is only 480 into 1730) and the fact he covers you in a PKO, he can call many hands.

 

[ronn6583]

Once again I am convinced that you should not slowplay at Pokerstars. Crazy bad beat turned out.
Of course there is a hint on the turn that the villain has a 4 or A … It's only hard to fold.
Especially if you look at the fact that the villain A has a full house that loses to the hero's full house, then it is simply unrealistic to fold.

 

[Luan]

there are situations that seem like bad luck, but I was analyzing my games that I lost like that and I came that it was me who was playing wrong!

 

[Shumkoolie]

Flop
I really don't like checking back a set on this flop. To me this is fancy play syndrome. You say, you want him to catch up, so he can pay you later, but there are loads on hands, that can pay you now, including top pair, which he can certainly have, and which you dont block. There are also some draws, which you want to charge now, while they will still pay you. You dont have to blast it, but anything between 1/3 and 1/2 pot is way better than checking back.

True, TP likely calls here OOP against a flop lead most of the time to protect TP. Also, given that they're defending my open pre, they could be defending with a wide range of hands, including Ax as already mentioned, and hands like 35 and 57, where many turn cards can be both good and bad for both of us in the hand, killing the potential for extracting more chips.

Also, as it's a PKO, I "WANT" to be building a pot earlier, as people are playing those differently than regular tournaments. Bounties have a big influence on how you play your hands.

Turn
You obviously need to bet now, and given, that the board got wetter, I think, your sizing is to small. He will call half pot with just about the same hands, as he will call this size. When he check-raise, you face an interesting decision. You could jam, but this would look super strong, and given that it would be for more than full pot, he is almost certainly going to fold his draws, which you do not want, since they are drawing dead.

So overall I do think, its ok to just call, but I slightly prefer to make a very exploitable play by clicking him back. I would never do this as a bluff, and this will probably be obvious to him, but at the same time I dont think, he would be able to get away from a draw, trips or even just AX, and your hand is super underrepped after checking back flop. So as played I would make it like 5.000 with the intention to get the rest in on the river, if he dont jam himself now.

Yes, in thinking about it, I think the bigger mistake for me was not clicking back, and just calling. I only lose to Aces, which I'm never putting him/her on, and if they do happen to have 4x, which after thinking about it and reading the comments here, is VERY possible, I should have just piled.

The pre flop raise is fine along with the sizing. I am ok with the flop check. I am not sure I would have done it in game and there is chance villain has Ax that we can start getting value from but there is nothing on this flop that scares me because villain should not be calling a raise with many 53 or 57 combos unless they are suited. Maybe they are a staunch blind defender and I dont know that here but I am not worried about the possible straight draw. Betting is fine and like I said, I probably would have here but you will get a lot folds doing it too so no problem with the check.

On the turn is where it gets interesting. I like the sizing (although I would not go any smaller) and we get check raised. Here I would be thinking either Ax, a 4 or an airball. I think it is important to realize what each of these hands would do if we call here. The airball is checking river, the Ax is most likely checking river but may bet, and the 4 should lead again. However, if we re-raise here villain might actually call with all those including the airball. They might think they can do a move where they call your raise and then lead into you on the river to scare you. They will definitely call your raise with the 4 and probably with the Ace. Thinking of it this way shows us that we get more value by re-raising here then just calling since many villains will not raise and fold on the same street. Re-raising 2-2.5x here would be the move that I would recommend for getting max value. Also note I am not saying to raise here to protect our hand or because I saw the results, I am raising here to get more value and want villain to call my raise.

See what I said above, I am leaning to agreeing that my mistake was not shoving after the check-raise.

This issue with checking is, that it cancel one betting round, which makes it very difficult to get stacks inside. We basically rely on Villian to either bet or check-raise us on the turn, and if he does neither of that, we will only be able to get at most two bets out of him. Its different, if Hero is out of position, because then checking might induce Villain to bet the flop.

Also while 75s and 53s should be the only strong draws in his range, loads of different hands can have a gutshot or backdoor into a straight or flush, so protection is not a trivial concern with a set even on a relatively dry flop like this. And even if a bad runout like 4s6cAh-7h-8h might not always give Villain a better hand, it will kill action.

Totally agree - the dream scenario DID occur in that villain gave us the chance to get stacks in, and I didn't take it. I mean, I still lose the hand in the end, but I think I would have felt better had I got my chips in good.

KO tournament , I just never check-back OTF with hand, good enough for All in. No sense at all. If you want to play "fancy", just make a small bet. Annoying bet. 666, something, like this.

Yes, good point!!! Why SHOULD I check back a hand where I WANT to get your chips? You put that very well, thanks for your input.

I agree with most of the comments already (would have bet the flop and re-raised turn).

One comment I'd challenge is discounting 4's in his range due to calling the preflop raise - with ante's, a very small raise size (call is only 480 into 1730) and the fact he covers you in a PKO, he can call many hands.

Yes, 4x COULD defend for sure.

Once again I am convinced that you should not slowplay at Pokerstars. Crazy bad beat turned out.

I don't get into this "PokerStars is rigged" stuff. It happens online and live.

Of course there is a hint on the turn that the villain has a 4 or A … It's only hard to fold.
Especially if you look at the fact that the villain A has a full house that loses to the hero's full house, then it is simply unrealistic to fold.

Yes, for sure I had them on Ax, and with all the comments so far, my mistake was not shoving on the turn after the check-raise.

there are situations that seem like bad luck, but I was analyzing my games that I lost like that and I came that it was me who was playing wrong!

To some degree, I feel I misplayed the hand, not because of the result, but more because of WHEN the chips went in. They should have gone in MUCH sooner than they did, and not because of a miracle river card for villain, because if the 4 doesn't hit, I don't know if they pay me off if I shove. Sure, it's VERY possible, given that they likely NOT putting me on 66, as my UTG raise includes more Ax hands, and overpairs than 66.

I appreciate everyones' feedback on this hand, the different perspectives are REALLY helpful, and will hopefully serve me well in the future.