Longest winning streak in CC freerolls on PS

[Joe]

To be precise, there is a huge difference between winning 3 games out of 6 and winning 300 games out of 600. Over the long run, achieving the same win rate can be orders of magnitude more difficult.

...

In practice, I agree with you.

In mathematics, 3/6 is the same as 300/600.

 

[MAGICUZ]

Hi
Agree if you play correctly you can win.
But with a lot of Ifs and Buts
I go all in with AA and get called with KK and there opens a K on the board.
Result - Played correctly and lost.
I have AA and bet 40% of the stack and get called, lose AA to a 2 pair.
Result - played correctly and lost.
So in poker nothing is certain.
#Just Saying
:joyman::joyman::joyman:
:deal::deal::deal::deal::deal::deal:

I agree with you, but what I meant is that when a person plays for fun,then at this rate he won’t win anything.There are players who register for the tournament and fly away from the first hand,the question is asked why did he register at all?There is nothing definite about poker, but if you play seriously, success will not keep you waiting long.

 

[Joe]

... the probability of not being knocked out of the tournament would be approximately 0.85 ^ 10 = 19.7%

Could you please explain to me your usage of the '^' symbol BelFish?

Are you using it as a logical conjunctive?

I left school at a fairly young age and have only recently regained an interest in mathematics, after reading a book on chaos theory (and playing poker of course :wink.

To the power of..?

 

[BelFish]

Could you please explain to me your usage of the '^' symbol BelFish?

Are you using it as a logical conjunctive?

I left school at a fairly young age and have only recently regained an interest in mathematics, after reading a book on chaos theory (and playing poker of course :wink.

To the power of..?

This is a sign of exponentiation.

------------------------------

And despite the fact that the numbers 3/6 and 300/600 do not differ, the probability of winning 300 prizes in 600 tournaments will be many times less likely to get into the prizes 3 times in 6 games. The numbers (p) and (1-p) are substituted into the final formula in various powers and with different factors (different numbers C (k, n) - combinations).

 

[Joe]

This is a sign of exponentiation.

------------------------------

And despite the fact that the numbers 3/6 and 300/600 do not differ, the probability of winning 300 prizes in 600 tournaments will be many times less likely to get into the prizes 3 times in 6 games. The numbers (p) and (1-p) are substituted into the final formula in various powers and with different factors (different numbers C (k, n) - combinations).

Sign of exponentiation = 'to the power of'

Yes?

N^1 = 1

N^2 = N²

And so on...?

 

[BelFish]

Yes
My google translator said "the sign of exponentiation" ))
I had some doubt that it absolutely right termin...

For example:
3^3=27

 

[Bluffzone68]

I agree with you, but what I meant is that when a person plays for fun,then at this rate he won’t win anything.There are players who register for the tournament and fly away from the first hand,the question is asked why did he register at all?There is nothing definite about poker, but if you play seriously, success will not keep you waiting long.

Yes
Thats true.
Application of Mind and playing with patience, choosing the right starting hand, folding at the right time are some of the many disciplines one needs to follow.:icon_comp:icon_comp:icon_comp:icon_comp

 

[BelFish]

I agree with you, but what I meant is that when a person plays for fun,then at this rate he won’t win anything.There are players who register for the tournament and fly away from the first hand,the question is asked why did he register at all?There is nothing definite about poker, but if you play seriously, success will not keep you waiting long.

In general, in probability theory there is such a thing as maximizing the chance of winning in games with negative expectation. This could be applied to tournaments for those players who still do not know how to play or do not have time to finish the tournament.

In accordance with this concept, in order to have the maximum chance of winning something, if the chances of it are small in a normal game, the number of bets should be small, but they should be large. Because if a person plays poorly, then with small bets his stack will gradually decrease to zero )))

That is, in fact, a bad player can maximize his chances of hitting the prizes by placing all-in and, if he doubles, then go into sit-out mode ))

Once i registered in the CC freeroll, but could not play and took 60th place in sit-out mode. And with a double stack, it is probably and possible to sit up to the prizes...

But bad players are unaware of this and therefore put all-ins until they lose the entire stack

-----------------

P.S. By the way, today i was eliminated from the tournament in the first hands, but i had K2s on board 922, and my opponent had a hand of 92o )) And he already had 600 BB. Now i looked and its stack is almost zero ))))

P.S.2
And now his stack is already 100BB, but this is already 20,000 in chips )))
Let's see if he gets into the prizes ))
Now he is chip leader

 

[Joe]

A bit like my 'hyper-TAG' concept but sounds like less finesse if it's a bad player shoving somewhat obscurely...

 

[BelFish]

A bit like my 'hyper-TAG' concept but sounds like less finesse if it's a bad player shoving somewhat obscurely...

For example, some weak player can get into prizes in 8% of cases. On average, the result of getting into the prizes should be 36/250, which is 14.4%.

And if such a bad player puts all-in at the beginning of the tournament and doubles, provided that it is possible to get into the prizes with a double stack in sit-out mode, then his percentage of getting into the prizes may increase from 8% to, for example, 13%-19%

But it's not a fact that with a double stack you can get into the prizes in sit-out mode. Because close to the bubble, blinds begin to devour the stack with great speed...

P.S. And that player, by the way, left the tournament close to the bubble, never reaching the prizes. And if he was sitting in sit-out after the first break with 20,000 in chips, he could have taken a good place..

 

[BelFish]

But all not so simple, because when you hit the prizes in sit-out mode, these will be guaranteed only minimum prizes. And when playing, at a person who can get into the prizes in 8% of cases, some prizes may be more than the minimum.
So, it is quite difficult to determine exactly in which case it will turn out to be more profitable in terms of the amount of prize money...

 

[BelFish]

But we can definitely say that for a player who is unlikely to ever be able to get into the prizes due to the fact that he puts all-in in each hand until he loses the entire stack, it will be more profitable to just stop playing after winning the first all-in )))

Sometimes i would become the chip leader with a very large stack in a CC tournaments, and then either crashed or achieved small prizes due to further very sloppy play. Maybe in future cases like this, after becoming the chip leader and feeling that i am not in the mood for a tight game, i have the willpower to stop playing and see which place i can take in sit-out mode.

It is quite interesting to learn how to determine for each blind level what place in the tournament can be achieved in sit-out mode with a certain stack size...

 

[MAGICUZ]

In general, in probability theory there is such a thing as maximizing the chance of winning in games with negative expectation. This could be applied to tournaments for those players who still do not know how to play or do not have time to finish the tournament.

In accordance with this concept, in order to have the maximum chance of winning something, if the chances of it are small in a normal game, the number of bets should be small, but they should be large. Because if a person plays poorly, then with small bets his stack will gradually decrease to zero )))

That is, in fact, a bad player can maximize his chances of hitting the prizes by placing all-in and, if he doubles, then go into sit-out mode ))

Once i registered in the CC freeroll, but could not play and took 60th place in sit-out mode. And with a double stack, it is probably and possible to sit up to the prizes...

But bad players are unaware of this and therefore put all-ins until they lose the entire stack

-----------------

P.S. By the way, today i was eliminated from the tournament in the first hands, but i had K2s on board 922, and my opponent had a hand of 92o )) And he already had 600 BB. Now i looked and its stack is almost zero ))))

P.S.2
And now his stack is already 100BB, but this is already 20,000 in chips )))
Let's see if he gets into the prizes ))
Now he is chip leader

I saw this distribution when you flew out, I was sitting at the table with you

 

[ADRI7HO]

It happened that I managed the ITM a few times in a row, but the tournament won several days in a row yet.
So now.

 

[luki_jakdo]

I havent won yet sadly.... but I am working hard for it

 

[MakTrue]

Intresting which the longest winning streak a few days in a row had somebody...

Personally, i have a small streak, 3 days in a row. But i play according to my mood: sometimes it's tight, and sometimes i can put all-in with any cards at the beginning of the tournament )))

Maybe there are players here who play very carefully every freeroll and who have very long winning streaks....

Once i decided to play very carefully in every tournament. And exactly then my streak of 3 wins in a row happened. But i lasted no more than 2 weeks, then i lost discipline in the game and started playing sloppy )))

Here's the story of that streak of mine:

May 13 - 12th out of 284
May 14 - 15th out of 260
May 15 - 28th out of 340
May 17 - 30th out of 241
May 18 - 39th out of 255
May 20 - 36th out of 248
May 22 - 16th out of 348

If i hadn’t lost in the $ 300 weekly freeroll on May 16th, my longest winning streak would not have been 3 days in a row, but 6 days. Such a bummer turned out

Good evening!
Did you mean entering ITM under the winning streak?
Then I probably have something about 3-4 days in a row for one week in September, probably ...

 

[BelFish]

For example, if you set yourself a goal for a week (in 6 CC freerolls on PS for platinum members) to get into the prizes 3 times in a row, then the exact probability of achieving this goal (for an average player) will be 0.913%, that is, less than 1%

And the probability of 3 hits in the prizes for these 6 games will be 4.01%

For a larger number of games than 6, i still find it difficult to accurately calculate the probabilities, maybe later i will do the calculations...

I managed to find a fairly accurate formula, but it is very large and complex.

The general task is this:
Let an event happens with probability P. What is the probability that over a series of N repetitions, it will happen K (or more) times in a row?

Our event - getting into the prizes in one freeroll. Let the probability of this for the player be 0.15 (or 15%).

The number of games per week is equal to:
N1 = 6

For a year, someone can play, for example, 260 tournaments on PS:
N2 = 260

The number of hits in the prizes we have 3 times in a row:
K = 3

According to that complex formula, it turns out that the probability of hitting prizes 3 or more times in a row per week is equal to:

P1 (6 games) = 1.2%

And the probability of getting into the prizes 3 or more times in a row during a year is equal to:

P2 (260 games) = 52.7%

 

[BelFish]

For clarity, i decided to calculate the corresponding probabilities for a player above the average level, who gets into the prizes on average in 20% of freerolls:

P1 (6 games) = 2.7%
P2 (260 games) = 81.5%

And for a player below the average level, who gets into prizes on average in 10% of freerolls:

P1 (6 games) = 0.37%
P2 (260 games) = 20.8%

 

[BelFish]

I also calculated the probabilities of hitting 3 or more times in a row to the final table during the year for a good player and for an excellent player.

Again, we will assume that the player plays an average of 5 CC freerolls on PS per week, that is, 260 freerolls per year.

I defined a good player as a player who makes the final table on average 5% of freerolls.

And an excellent player will be considered a player who is able to make it to the final table on average in 7% of freerolls.

Without statistics, it is not known whether there are such excellent players in our freerolls. Perhaps there are even more advanced players here...

Then the formula gives the following probabilities:

P (good player) = 3%

P (excellent player) = 7.9%

 

[BelFish]

Good evening!
Did you mean entering ITM under the winning streak?
Then I probably have something about 3-4 days in a row for one week in September, probably ...

Yes. Getting into the prizes, we, after all, win something. It would be too narrow to call a winning streak those tournaments in which players took only first places several times in a row. Then there would be no point in calculating something, because the probability of such streaks tends to zero.

Now i will explain in more detail the results obtained from the formulas.

The fact that you hit the streak 3-4 times in a row (won prizes) during a given week is an event that has already happened. For this, the probability is 100%, since this has already happened
Moreover, it is not known how many weeks you have been playing these freerolls until those week with winning streak.

If you will set yourself a goal on the next week in 6 freerolls to get into the prizes 3 or more times in a row, then the probability that you will achieve this goal will be approximately from 0.4% to 2.7%.
For the average player, this probability is about 1.2%

It also means that out of 100 average players who set such a goal, it is most likely that only one person will be able to achieve it in that week. But this does not mean that, for example, 5 people out of 100 will not be able to achieve the goal. In rare weeks, this will happen.

 

[Alekxandrovi3]

I had days when I was at the final table several times in a week.

 

[BelFish]

I had days when I was at the final table several times in a week.

For a player who is able to make it to the final table on average in 5% of CC freerolls, the probability of hitting the final table 3 or more times out of 6 per week is approximately 0.22%. But this is not 3 times in a row, but just 3 times a week. And the probability of 3 times in a row will be about 4 times less.

--------------------------

For fun, i also calculated the probability of various winning streaks for the games in SnG HU.

If a player wins about 64% SnGs HU, then the probability of hitting a winning streak of 20 wins in a row for 3000 SnGs will be 13.3%

If he wins about 70% SnGs, then this probability will already be 51.2%, and the probability of a streak of 30 consecutive wins for 3000 SnGs in this case will be slightly less than 2%.


I managed to bring my streak, which i wrote about above, to 17 victories in a row. And the funny thing is that a full fish beat me, but damn lucky fish ))
And after playing with him, i beat 3 pretty strong players in a row. So the series could not be 17, but 21 times in a row. Such a bummer ))

 

[Joe]

I just noticed this and thought it might interest you...

In the current CC league there has been the 'bonus game' and two weeks of play (which normally will mean two games so far per player).

I have played the bonus game and two league games so far...

All normal so far, right?

Well...

In the bonus game, I finished 6th/119.

First league game- 6th.

Second league game- 6th.

So that's three league games in a row:- 6th, 6th & 6th...

A little spooky, right? :laugh:

 

[DS3]

I just noticed this and thought it might interest you...

In the current CC league there has been the 'bonus game' and two weeks of play (which normally will mean two games so far per player).

I have played the bonus game and two league games so far...

All normal so far, right?

Well...

In the bonus game, I finished 6th/119.

First league game- 6th.

Second league game- 6th.

So that's three league games in a row:- 6th, 6th & 6th...

A little spooky, right? :laugh:

So it would appear the soul has been sold!

 

[DS3]

I’ve cashed 4 days in a row twice in a CC free roll on pokerstars. Then several ‘3 in a row’ but also faced some lean periods.

Prior to that a few years ago PS ran some nutty free rolls for a few weeks (cannot recall why) and I cashed 4 in one day with an average field of 9,633 entrants….for a grand total of 40 cents haha!

That said best run I have had on CC was on one site which does not even offer daily free rolls...I managed to cash 12 in a row stretched out over 6 weeks.

I then enjoyed a bender on one other site which features CC free rolls, and counting the other two free rolls I played with the CC free rolls in one 22 day period I cashed 61 times.

Again, no claim this is day in and out stuff, but the runs are much appreciated when they occur.