Longest winning streak in CC freerolls on PS

BelFish

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Intresting which the longest winning streak a few days in a row had somebody...

Personally, i have a small streak, 3 days in a row. But i play according to my mood: sometimes it's tight, and sometimes i can put all-in with any cards at the beginning of the tournament )))

Maybe there are players here who play very carefully every freeroll and who have very long winning streaks....

Once i decided to play very carefully in every tournament. And exactly then my streak of 3 wins in a row happened. But i lasted no more than 2 weeks, then i lost discipline in the game and started playing sloppy )))

Here's the story of that streak of mine:

May 13 - 12th out of 284
May 14 - 15th out of 260
May 15 - 28th out of 340
May 17 - 30th out of 241
May 18 - 39th out of 255
May 20 - 36th out of 248
May 22 - 16th out of 348

If i hadn’t lost in the $ 300 weekly freeroll on May 16th, my longest winning streak would not have been 3 days in a row, but 6 days. Such a bummer turned out :D
 
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CliffieDeuce

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WOW - Those are pretty good runs. I have not cashed in a CC tournament yet.
I am working on getting Platinum on CC so that I can play more tournaments.
I am confident that I will cash before the end of the year.
 
Risto234

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Your title is misleading? Like reaching ITM 5 consecutive days is obviously easier than winning tournaments for 5 days in a row ...
 
BelFish

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Maybe there are poker sharks in the CC freerolls that reached the final table for 5-10 days in a row? ))
 
BelFish

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Your title is misleading? Like reaching ITM 5 consecutive days is obviously easier than winning tournaments for 5 days in a row ...

Winning a tournament several times in a row is almost impossible from the point of view of probability theory. The probability percentage will be obtained with several zeros after the decimal point for this event.

So in this topic we will consider events with a sane probability.

But even just getting into the prizes once is not so easy, so such winning streaks are also unlikely.

For example, for several summer months i played very loosely, purely for fun - and practically did not get into the prizes at all ))
 
Dejange

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A week or 2 ago, one CC member won 2 consecutive days: Friday $100 and Saturday $300 at pokerstars. However, I am too lazy now to check who was that :p

Me personally, the best streak I ever had in CC freerolls was 3 consecutive FT's at Stars again, but there were less crowd in these days ...
 
BelFish

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A week or 2 ago, one CC member won 2 consecutive days: Friday $100 and Saturday $300 at Pokerstars. However, I am too lazy now to check who was that :p

I almost did the same once: on June 26, i took 1st place in the Friday freeroll, and on June 27, when there were 5 participants at the FT in the weekly freeroll and my stack was more than the sum of all their stacks, i was disconnected on hour because of a thunderstorm (the electricity in the country went out and my tablet was discharged). The stack was enough to take second place. Apparently, it was not destiny to take first place for two days in a row )))
 
BelFish

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Here are some rough estimates of the probabilities.

Assuming that the skills of all the participants are about the same, and that there are always 250 people (for PS) in the freerolls, we can calculate the probabilities of winning streaks of different lengths.

The probability of getting into the prizes in one tournament is p1 = 37/250 = 0.148 (or 14.8%), then the chance of not getting into the prizes in one freeroll is 0.852 (85.2%). The likelihood that you will never win prizes for N freerolls:

p = (0.852) ^ N

This means that the probability that you will get into the prizes at least once by playing N freerolls can be roughly estimated as:

P = 1 - (0.852) ^ N

And the probability of a winning streak of n games in a row is:

P (n) = p ^ n = (0.148) ^ n

For example, the probability of a 3-game winning streak is:

P = (0.148) ^ 3 = 0.3%

But this is the probability of the next 3 games, and not in general. The total probability of hitting a winning streak n times in N days is calculated differently, it will be much higher, but still not very large.
 
BelFish

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For example, if you set yourself a goal for a week (in 6 CC freerolls on PS for platinum members) to get into the prizes 3 times in a row, then the exact probability of achieving this goal (for an average player) will be 0.913%, that is, less than 1%

And the probability of 3 hits in the prizes for these 6 games will be 4.01%

For a larger number of games than 6, i still find it difficult to accurately calculate the probabilities, maybe later i will do the calculations...
 
BelFish

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Not too long ago I finished exactly 5th place in three $100 CC dailies (in a row) on Stars..

Was weird.

Cool! :)
If you set yourself the goal of repeating this winning chain in freerolls today, tomorrow and the day after tomorrow, the chance is about 0.001% :D

Perhaps, given that you are a strong player, the chance may be 0.002%. I think that no player in the world can achieve a greater chance than 0.003%, but maybe i am mistaken in this assumption ...
 
Tracid

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Cool! :)
If you set yourself the goal of repeating this winning chain in freerolls today, tomorrow and the day after tomorrow, the chance is about 0.001% :D

Perhaps, given that you are a strong player, the chance may be 0.002%. I think that no player in the world can achieve a greater chance than 0.003%, but maybe i am mistaken in this assumption ...
Another weird one was that guy who finished 9th two years running in the ME, haha... :laugh:

Poor guy!
 
BelFish

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By the way, i was a little mistaken there above. Prize places, after all, not 37, but 36. For some reason it seemed to me that there are 37 of them. So, the corresponding probabilities will turn out to be a little less...

P.S. On the other hand, there are now on average less than 250 participants, so, in fact, the probabilities will be not less, but higher ))
 
BelFish

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Okay, here's the little challenge for you: you need to figure out what the chances of the average player who participate in 25 CC freerolls a month are to get at least 10 prizes in them. In case 250 people participate in each. You can try to count, or you can just make assumptions. What does anyone think, which this probability will be?

At the end of next week, i'll write an answer if no one calculates.
 
Tracid

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Okay, here's the little challenge for you: you need to figure out what the chances of the average player who participate in 25 CC freerolls a month are to get at least 10 prizes in them. In case 250 people participate in each. You can try to count, or you can just make assumptions. What does anyone think, which this probability will be?

At the end of next week, i'll write an answer if no one calculates.
I'm going to guuuuuuuuuess...

0.684%!

Nonono, wait...

1.597%!
 
MAGICUZ

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There was a time when I could not get into the prizes for 2 weeks, then I was at the final table 3 times in a row.I think a good result will be if you get to the final table at least once a week,although the money is not big, it's still nice.I think if you play correctly regardless of your mood, the results will be great:cool:
 
BelFish

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I'm going to guuuuuuuuuess...

0.684%!

Nonono, wait...

1.597%!
Probably you were wrong by converting the probability to a percentage (by one order of magnitude). Or maybe i myself made a mistake in the calculation. I got this number: 0.156%
 
Tracid

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Probably you were wrong by converting the probability to a percentage (by one order of magnitude). Or maybe i myself made a mistake in the calculation. I got this number: 0.156%
Looks like the decimal is in the wrong place in my second answer..

Move the decimal over and I'm not far away, haha...

Not bad for guesswork! :laugh:
 
Bluffzone68

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There was a time when I could not get into the prizes for 2 weeks, then I was at the final table 3 times in a row.I think a good result will be if you get to the final table at least once a week,although the money is not big, it's still nice.I think if you play correctly regardless of your mood, the results will be great:cool:
Hi
Agree if you play correctly you can win.
But with a lot of Ifs and Buts
I go all in with AA and get called with KK and there opens a K on the board.
Result - Played correctly and lost.
I have AA and bet 40% of the stack and get called, lose AA to a 2 pair.
Result - played correctly and lost.
So in poker nothing is certain.
#Just Saying
:joyman::joyman::joyman:
:deal::deal::deal::deal::deal::deal:
 
BelFish

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Looks like the decimal is in the wrong place in my second answer..

Move the decimal over and I'm not far away, haha...

Not bad for guesswork! :laugh:
And i thought the first digit was a guess, and the second was obtained by calculation, but with the wrong placed comma ))

It's just, really, very similar numbers turned out :)
 
Tracid

Tracid

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And i thought the first digit was a guess, and the second was obtained by calculation, but with the wrong placed comma ))

It's just, really, very similar numbers turned out :)
I just took this...

... (in 6 CC freerolls on PS for platinum members) to get into the prizes 3 times in a row, then the exact probability of achieving this goal (for an average player) will be 0.913%, that is, less than 1%

And the probability of 3 hits in the prizes for these 6 games will be 4.01%

...
.... and "adjusted" to the tune of about 20%...

The first data you gave was 3/6.

10/25 isn't much different...

Shame that I managed to screw up something that really should have been quite simple to get approximately correct...

If I could have put the decimal in the right place I would have been pretty close to your result.. :wink:
 
BelFish

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The first data you gave was 3/6.

10/25 isn't much different...
To be precise, there is a huge difference between winning 3 games out of 6 and winning 300 games out of 600. Over the long run, achieving the same win rate can be orders of magnitude more difficult.

Hi
Agree if you play correctly you can win.
But with a lot of Ifs and Buts
I go all in with AA and get called with KK and there opens a K on the board.
Result - Played correctly and lost.
I have AA and bet 40% of the stack and get called, lose AA to a 2 pair.
Result - played correctly and lost.
So in poker nothing is certain.
#Just Saying
:joyman::joyman::joyman:
:deal::deal::deal::deal::deal::deal:
If during the entire tournament someone were dealt aces 10 times and each time it turned out in all-in situation on entire stack, then the probability of not being knocked out of the tournament would be approximately 0.85 ^ 10 = 19.7%
 
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BelFish

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Doubled. To delete.
I did not immediately see what else could be added to the previous post.
 
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1nsomn1a

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I think in monetary terms it will be more profitable to win one tournament out of five than in five tournaments to get into small prizes. But a series of wins is of course very cool:)
 
BelFish

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I think in monetary terms it will be more profitable to win one tournament out of five than in five tournaments to get into small prizes. But a series of wins is of course very cool:)
I like winning streaks in HU SnGs better ))

The last 2 or 3 days i have been playing pretty damn tight in SnGs HU (razz and stud). And at the SnGs HU Stud is currently a streak of 14 wins in a row. I will try to lengthen this streak ))
 
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