Jacki Burkhart
long winded rambler...
Silver Level
I did watch that video with Phil Ivey. You say it's impossible for somebody to have a flush draw or 2 pair there....I disagree...big time disagree. For instance the 1st reraiser had only TPGK. You don't think it's possible for somebody to have AT or KsJs or KsQs there? nut flush draw plus a gutshot in a big multiway pot...and you think they would obviously just fold it-huh? I disagree.
You say it's impossible but in reality 2 pair, monster combo draws, and sets are ALL possible and a set is the least likely of those three. When facing that entire range Phil takes an aggressive line. You claim Phil should have known he was facing a range of ONLY bigger sets. Let's not forget that we, the viewers at home have the benefit of the hole cam to know what's actually going on. I wonder how Phil Ivey would respond to your assertion that he should have known he was facing a bigger set do you think he'd say "yeah man, you're right. they can only have a set there. I should have just mucked" or do you think he would say something like "I was crushing both of their combined ranges and the pot was already big enough to warrant taking it down on the flop. Dude had the top of his range that time, on to the next tourney..."
and here's the flip side...then shouldn't the guy with the set of tens be able to now fold to Ivey's shove because he doesn't have the stone cold nuts either. After all, Ivey was the preflop raiser. couldn't he have a set of aces? sure he could. and if 2 pair, and combo draws are IMPOSSIBLE in this situation and clearly everybody should KNOW that they are impossible so Ivey knows they are impossible too....right? so then using your same line of thought, the set of 10s should fold to Ivey's obvious set. facing a range of ONLY SETS and with all the action leading up to him, obviously Ivey should easily fold his set of 3s and so the only possible hand that remains in Ivey's range is a set of aces. so....hence....the set of Ts should fold, right?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E2y40U2LvKY
Obviously, I'm being facetious there...but I maintain my position that for the most part we shouldn't be folding sets on the flop. The exceptions are rare enough not to really worry about too much. This hand you posted might even be one of those exceptions and it's still not an obvious fold, IMO.
Ok Michael, you are articulate and nice to debate with and you're making lots of good points, I just happen to disagree with some of them.
edit: how the heck do you add a youtube video so that you can just click the video instead of having to click the link?
You say it's impossible but in reality 2 pair, monster combo draws, and sets are ALL possible and a set is the least likely of those three. When facing that entire range Phil takes an aggressive line. You claim Phil should have known he was facing a range of ONLY bigger sets. Let's not forget that we, the viewers at home have the benefit of the hole cam to know what's actually going on. I wonder how Phil Ivey would respond to your assertion that he should have known he was facing a bigger set do you think he'd say "yeah man, you're right. they can only have a set there. I should have just mucked" or do you think he would say something like "I was crushing both of their combined ranges and the pot was already big enough to warrant taking it down on the flop. Dude had the top of his range that time, on to the next tourney..."
and here's the flip side...then shouldn't the guy with the set of tens be able to now fold to Ivey's shove because he doesn't have the stone cold nuts either. After all, Ivey was the preflop raiser. couldn't he have a set of aces? sure he could. and if 2 pair, and combo draws are IMPOSSIBLE in this situation and clearly everybody should KNOW that they are impossible so Ivey knows they are impossible too....right? so then using your same line of thought, the set of 10s should fold to Ivey's obvious set. facing a range of ONLY SETS and with all the action leading up to him, obviously Ivey should easily fold his set of 3s and so the only possible hand that remains in Ivey's range is a set of aces. so....hence....the set of Ts should fold, right?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E2y40U2LvKY
Obviously, I'm being facetious there...but I maintain my position that for the most part we shouldn't be folding sets on the flop. The exceptions are rare enough not to really worry about too much. This hand you posted might even be one of those exceptions and it's still not an obvious fold, IMO.
Ok Michael, you are articulate and nice to debate with and you're making lots of good points, I just happen to disagree with some of them.
edit: how the heck do you add a youtube video so that you can just click the video instead of having to click the link?
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